|
|
More More More is pictured by Dan Costello winning on debut at Eagle Farm in ordinary overall time, that was officially a "class record", so all bar one outlet concluded they had just seen a good horse. Yet again Sectional Times clients were the only ones who got the accurate information on where the horse sat in the general score of things.
|
09/02/10
I regularly shake my head in dismay how “they” can all be so hopelessly wrong over the ability of a racehorse.
Even if one is suffering from amnesia, it would be hard to forget the chorus of support that went up across all facets of the media after 2YO More More More had won on debut at Eagle Farm on 23 January. He was a bit slow away, but Colless being Colless didn’t panic. He then brought the horse through the field in the straight to win running away by three-quarters-of-a-length. Well the crap started flowing before the horse had even pulled up about what a wonderful performance it was and what an exciting prospect he was. Even more amazing was the fact that this Alan Bailey trained 2YO had just run a “class record” of 58.08 for the 1000 metres. However that time is in fact slow for 2YO’s at that track and distance, so as I always write, most “class records” are an absolute waste of time. As usual “they” all got on the bandwagon so that by the time 48 hours had passed, it was unanimous from all sectors that we were looking at a really good horse in the making.
Well that was before he stepped out last Saturday at Doomben and the bookies opened him at the generous price of $1.80. “Step right up here ladies and gents and take the tomato sauce odds about the good thing”, you could have heard them cry from as far away as Kakadu. Punters were a bit hesitant - in fact the ones who are smart enough to subscribe to Brisbane Sectional times would have been looking for something to beat what was widely mooted as “the best bet of the day”, or they would have given their Betfair account a workout.
To gauge the support that will be about for a horse, one can peruse tipster polls in the various Form Guides. To that end, Brisbane’s The Courier Mail had six Brisbane tipsters in their Form Guide last Saturday, The Sportsman had three tipsters, Winning Post had three and Best Bets has one, so cumulatively there were 13 tipsters. Of those 13, only one, The Courier Mail’s Nathan Exelby, dared to think that More More More could get rolled. In fact, to his credit, he was even able to tip the subsequent winner Heartsareforlove.
So how could so many people from the ranks of tipsters to price assessors and punters who supported More More More be so hopelessly wrong about where the youngster sat in the general score of things after his Eagle Farm win? Well put simply “they” didn’t bother standing back and smelling the roses after the race - and digesting the times - before concluding they’d just seen a good horse. Plenty of the people who read the horse so incorrectly have been around racing a long time and shouldn’t have put so much hype on the horse. In fact the media-at-large is pathetic in the way they hype horses up without any educated savvy being used at all, a point even Racing Retro host Graham McNiece was forced to concede in last Sunday’s show, when he stated “I tell you what we do Ron (to Ron Dufficy) I think (in) the media though, we all tend to give the hype up on some of these horses” – and it is true that one or two people light small sparks of excitement in punter’s minds – and suddenly there is an out of control bushfire happening over the ability of a particular horse. In fact it is that rife, that about the only place you’ll get a factual and correct assessment of a race field is in this website’s Friday night previews. Sure the tipped horses don’t always win, although Captain Sonador at a top fluc of $9 was a nice result last Saturday at Doomben, but at least you’ll get a no patronising, straight from the hip assessment of a horse’s ability, that is generally accurate - not like all the pandering crap “they” write in Form Guides, whereby 15 of the 18 starters are winning chances, with the other three being place hopes, so that no-one gets offended. However if some horse is a slowcoach, I just say so. There is no need to keep the owner happy with patronising comments for if he, or she, are so cash strapped as to keep parting with good money after bad on slow racehorses, ultimately that is their problem – not mine. If the trainer doesn’t know his horse is slow, again the race analyst is doing a community service by writing that “the horse would be better suited at Dingo,” - as it should be noted that their annual meeting is coming up in July and my appraisal of the horse’s ability will at least give the owners and trainer time to spell the horse now, then set it for the Dingo Cup, which they may be able to win – and earn some valuable prizemoney with, such that the horse actually pays its feed bill.
So if punters want to know the difference between a good horse and a slow one, historically the most educated writings that are offered on the subject will be contained in what is widely lauded as “the best value product available in thoroughbred racing today” - that being this website’s Sectional Times service for Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. The reports cost the princely sum of $4.23 each, per State, per week – which won’t even buy you two beers at the pub these days – and are emailed direct to a client’s email address. The service has clients in six countries and it is no big secret that certain Darwin corporate bookmakers are also clients, so to be on a level playing field with the bagmen, punters need to know what’s being said.
Clients of the Brisbane Sectional Times report as at 23 January this year received the following unedited transcript of the race won by More More More. You don’t need to be Einstein to work out that this was the only place that correctly reported that “it is also possible that the winner (More More More) is not much good” after it had been earlier stated “a legless group of horses competed in the 2YO race won by More More More.”
The unedited transcript reads:-
So from slowest to fastest in the three 1000-metre races they read:
|
WINNER |
Race First 400 (Extrapolated to 1000m) |
Race last 600 |
Overall time (time off track record) |
|
MORE MORE MORE |
23.27
(58.17) |
34.81 |
58.08
(-2.08) |
|
FALVELINA |
22.53
(56.32) |
33.79 |
56.32
(-0.32) |
|
AZZALAND |
22.99
(57.47) |
33.00 |
55.99
(+0.01) |
This simple table tells us what a legless group of horses competed in the 2YO race won by More More More. As I’ve said a thousand and one times before, “a good 2YO will run the same time as the Open company race over the same distance, on the same day”, so look how pathetic this 2YO crew are. They go out 0.28 of a second (1.68 lengths) slower than Azzaland’s race and get home an incredible 1.81 seconds (10.86 lengths) slower, so no wonder More More More could come from last and win, because they are “a pathetic group of 2YO’s”. "They" are all raving about the win of More More More “in class record time” and all this allied garbage but “they” wouldn’t have a clue what a good horse even looks like.
|
RACE NO. |
DATE |
23/01/10 |
WEATHER |
OVERCAST |
|
1 |
VENUE |
EAGLE FARM |
TRACK |
GOOD (3) BUT REALLY FAST |
|
DISTANCE |
1000 METRES |
RAIL |
TRUE |
|
CLASS |
2YO C & G |
PENETROMETER |
N/A |
|
FINAL PLACINGS 1st |
MORE MORE MORE |
OVERVIEW |
|
2nd |
DONE ALL DONE |
THE WINNER WAS DOMINANT SECTIONALLY – BUT THE OVERALL TIME IS VERY SLOW, SO ALL BAR HIM ARE GUARANTEED TO BE LEGLESS, IN RESPECT OF SATURDAY CITY RACING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WINNER IS NOT MUCH GOOD, SO SEE FULL REPORT. |
|
3rd |
BETTER OPTION |
|
TIME |
58.08 |
|
TRACK RECORD |
56.00 |
|
RECORD HOLDER |
NOBLE GENT |
|
VARIATION TIME |
-2.08 |
|
VARIATION LENGTHS |
-12.48 |
|
FASTEST
SECTIONAL |
NAME |
LAST 600 |
FINAL
PLACING |
COMMENTS |
|
1 |
MORE MORE MORE
|
33.82 |
1ST |
Jumped awkwardly and lost 1.5 lengths then settled second last on fence. (NO OTHER RUNNER’S COMMENTS ARE REPRODUCED, AS THEY ARE CONSIDERED CONFIDENTIAL TO CLIENTS) |
|
2 |
CRAIGELLACHIE
|
34.46 |
6TH |
|
|
3 |
BETTER OPTION
|
34.63 |
3RD |
|
|
4 |
PINNACLE RIDGE
|
34.84 |
5TH |
|
|
5 |
GOLD BUDDA
|
34.86 |
7TH |
|
|
6 |
DONE ALL DONE
|
34.90 |
2ND |
|
|
7 |
FLASH JESTER
|
34.99 |
4TH |
|
|
8 |
EN PISTE
|
35.11 |
8TH |
|
|
9 |
SERIOUSLY READY
|
35.54 |
10TH |
|
|
10 |
JUST ABOUT READY
|
35.62 |
9TH |
|
|
11 |
NOAH’S SMILE
|
36.37 |
11TH |
|
|
12 |
RED HESSERATTI
|
N/A |
13TH |
|
|
13 |
GUNDY MOON
|
N/A |
12TH |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RACE 1 SUMMARY
Discussed at length in the earlier table and whilst this race was credited with being a “class record”, as I’ve written numerous times on the website, many “class records” are nothing more than a waste of time – this is a case in point, as the 2YO Open class record is about 10 lengths quicker than this run from memory.
The winner is unbeaten as at today, but I’ll be amazed if he amounts to any revelation as a galloper during his life, as although this looked like a top performance, any reasonable 2YO worth their salt would have been able to achieve the same feat he did.
The rest are guaranteed to be legless.
Even as recently as yesterday, clients of the Sectional Times services reported big wins, as after Growl last raced at Flemington on 16 January it was noted “The quinella pair (Coppervue and Growl) were the standout pair – and judging by his runs this time in, Growl has another Saturday city race in him, if you can be forgiving of the length of time he’s been away from the winners circle”. He bolted in with the Hobart Cup yesterday at nice odds - $12.20. Trainers get both recommended and bagged to clients, with historical proven accuracy, so punters also therefore know which stables shouldn’t command the respect they are given by all parts of the media, such that we have about a thousand “top trainers” or “champion trainers” in this country, when I reckon there are about four. You wouldn’t read in the passive journalistic world of newspapers where “most trainers couldn’t train a choko vine to run over the outhouse” – but you will here – and judging by the massive number of form reversals that are happening all the time, I’ll go to my maker without having to ever change that one.
|