Advertisement Just Racing
Contact Us

Luxbet

Saturday Morning Mail link



Designed and Hosted by
Perfect Web Site Designs link
Perfect Web Site Designs

Headlines Today is 03/12/2016
ROSEHILL RACE 4 PREVIEW......by Luke Murrell [ More Items ]  
Bjorn Baker (pictured) trains Imposing Lass, which is resuming from a spell tomorrow at Rosehill in Race 4. Luke Murrell suggests she's "the most interesting horse all day" appearing at the meeting.
02/12/16

Racing Returns to Rosehill tomorrow on what should is perhaps Sydney fairest track and rail position at the Rosehill 3m rail.

We expect the track to play fairly even although with a firm surface we can expect those closer to the speed slightly advantaged. Form analysis is made trickier as the “feeder races” are mostly from tracks that played extremely biased to fence in run positions and we could see those horses disappoint as they basically have some false or misleading form into tomorrow’s card.

Below I’ve decided to preview a wide open race tomorrow in which the winner should pay a decent price (Note I didn’t say value – which are two completely different things and are a real bug bear of mine but that’s a discussion for another day)

Rosehill Race 4- Overall we have medium to medium high speed although most of that is drawn in – meaning those midfield or better have a distinct advantage

Horse

Settles

Comment

IMPOSING LASS

Forward Here?

Currently trading $9 in most places. The most interesting horse all day and one I’m keen to see. If she is supported then she is the best horse in the race. Against her though is the stable is 6 winners from 77 this season in town. The other issue is she is by Makfi and they are renowned for disliking firm ground. She has also never won at this trip but I expect she will have been trained to be sharper this prep with no Oaks on the agenda and the 1200m will be ideal- despite being first up. I’d categorise Bjorn as a hard on his horse’s trainer so she should be ready. On the plus side she maps great if they are full of intent for tomorrow and is the best horse. The price is amazing and she is one to keep safe. If she is close to ready she wins.

Hetty Heights

Settles Worse than midfield

Currently trading $6.50 to $9 in most places. She is the second best horse in the race with an amazing turn of foot. My issue with her here is she goes right back and that’s going to make her job that much harder and I can’t see her giving imposing Lass a start and beating if she is 6 off them. However, if Imposing Lass is off slightly the Kim Waugh stable is flying (24% for the season and 12 of her last 50 have won also). McEvoy is fine for this horse and she is another who has serious claims- but the speed midrace will determine her fate. Two trials into this say she is ready

Harlem Lady

3 first up runs she has been dead last in all of them on settling

Currently trading $11. Another like Hetty Heights who has big 1st up stats so expect her to find support. She settles right back and is not as good as Hefty Heights and can’t go with her all things being equal. Is the best roughie but happy to leave her alone until she finds some give in the track to help compensate for her lack of class when racing the better horses.

Dee Bee Nine

Leads

Currently trading at $5. Some real intent her for the stable and gets some ticks with ok jockey but the stable is 0 from 14 in NSW and clearly struggling to line the form up. With so many suspect horses in the race I expect they will try and pinch a gap on the field midrace and run them ragged. She is nowhere near as good as some but the stable will be desperate to earn something from her and she will look the winner at some stage. The two 900m trials are ok although would have preferred a 1000m as the lead up. In saying that she looks a likely horse to fill the placings but I can’t have her and she will need a badly on speed bias to mix it with these horses and the price looks under the odds which is helping make the market for some others.

Nudie Rudie

3rd pair

Currently trading at $6. For mine she is a better horse than Dee Bee Nine and is the better value. She comes into this with better form and also recent racing and is another who maps fine. She looks a real firm track horse so gets lots of ticks. She is a genuine winning chance.

Tree of Jesse

Worse than midfield

Currently trading $21. James Cummings can REALLY train- but this looks like he is sending her out for a trial and she won’t be ready. Just one 735m trial and her good to firm track runs have been average and is another who needs wet. Pen job!

Yuma Desert

3rd pair fence

Currently $6.50. A bit of a fan here for me – but she is another PEN JOB- she is clearly not come up and for mine likes give in the track. Surprised they are pushing on the price is missing a “1” in front of it- a horse on her day capable but they are surely hoping here despite the Ace position she gets in this race.

Painted Firetail

Worse Than Midfield

Currently $5. Gets the pommy rider who is no star and races like she is bleeder with her head carriage. Her record is also MAD fresh and whilst she gets 3 weeks I can’t have her until you see her at least 60 days between runs. She also has to come from well back in the field and I feel there are too many things against her. Her fresh record could win it but she has too many convictions to take this silly price they are offering.

Pienka

Wide forward of midfield

Currently $18. I actually had a peanut on her last start and she was horribly unlucky but now she is drawn to be wide the trip on a possible above average speed. Not for me- PEN JOB.

Thelittleracketeer

3wide on speed working

Currently $14. If you’re in a sweep this is a massive chance to run last for you and she has none.

 

Overall we have a few horses making a market and I think the race revolves around the horses of Imposing Lass, Hetty Heights and Nudie Rudie as genuine winning hopes. At Current prices, it doesn’t take a genius to work out you can stake all 3 of them and make a profit – however given the map I’d suggest if Imposing Lass gets support she will look the winner as she has the class on them. Hetty Heights though is the horse I think you can follow through this preparation for good profit. (look for when Avdulla gets on as well as he has normally first call on the yard- although she loses nothing with McEvoy on)

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  business, as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Best of luck for the week end and happy punting!!

Headlines 1 - 15 of 3970 [ Back to Top ]  
02/12/16
01/12/16
30/11/16
29/11/16
28/11/16
25/11/16
24/11/16
23/11/16
22/11/16
18/11/16
17/11/16
16/11/16
15/11/16
14/11/16
11/11/16

For further information you can email us at
admin@justracing.com.au
or by contacting the owner of justracing.com.au