The major focus on the week end will be the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes at Flemington which is supported by 3 Black Type races with several last season’s handy 3 year old’s resuming tomorrow.
In Sydney, thankfully racing returns to Rosehill this Saturday after the disappointing track that was served at Randwick not only on Monday but Wednesday also. Given we had some of the hottest weather in Australia’s history for a couple of days prior to Monday’s meeting it’s a disappointing that such a two paced and biased track was dished up to punters and participants alike.
No other racing district or carnival around the world accepts or delivers such a poor surface on a regular basis and until they can produce a fair surface the racing will never be taken as seriously as the powers to be would like. To deliver such a track is really a slap in the face to all horse owners and participants yet nothing seems to be getting done about it.
There is a really simple solution and in my opinion that’s replace the entire course curator team and to hand full control over the PETER BIRCH. If you don’t know Peter Birch, he is the course curator from Newcastle and has just overseen the installation of the new Newcastle racecourse. Whilst it’s early days the first use of the course proper saw a number of trials on the new surface and amazingly the night before they had 40 mml of rain and any other race course would have been washed away but the trials were able to proceed and it looked like a bowling green and was unmarked. An astonishing feat given the conditions and to my eye it’s the best surface in Australia.
Punters deserve better and surely given all the money spent we can get a better result than the track dished up this week. As much as they want to ignore things it’s really the punters that fund racing and unless punters have confidence in the product they will continue to abandon racing and spend their gambling dollar elsewhere. One thing is for sure events like THE EVEREST certainly won’t be bringing people back to the sport and if anything, only helps to disenchant the average participant and I certainly imagine wouldn’t excite them.
Well that’s my rant for this week and below we have our regular Friday preview and this week Luke Murrell will be previewing the Group 1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and the first on the card in Sydney.
The Lightning Stakes has been traditionally a good race for 3yr old’s albeit in the past few years with horses Like Black Caviar, Hay List, Lankan Rupee have been the dominant winners or contestants and hence driven the quality ones to other races.
This year we have a good field and very open race.
9m Rail is traditionally seeing the best ground down the middle with the inside fence inferior and the distinct possibility of the outside fence being more than ok. It’s very important to remember that 1000m races are specialist distance ranges and you’re either a 1000m horse or you are not. Tempo wise it is only standard or average meaning the backmarkers will need a peach ride to overcome this.
|Terravista||On speed||Best price is $9. The old war horse does love the straight track but has a number of things to overcome. Hasn't won a race in over 12 months but did run 2nd here in a poxy Listed race over the Carnival to Redzel who would be 100/1 here. Also of concern he gets Corey Brown who physically is very weak and tactically poor and he seems the type of horse who needs a stand over man albeit he hasn't made many mistakes since he has been back. Happy to oppose him especially off one average trial only which is hardly the right platform to win a Group 1 First up.|
|Flamberge||Leads||Best price is $34. Highly underrated and can you believe he has won $1.6m! He is not up to this class over 1000m and is poorly weighted in this plus has to overcome the inside draw.|
|The Quarterback||Backmarker||Best price is $18. Gets a kind draw and has exceptional straight line speed which is essential here. The concern is how far he gets back but is a genuine 1000m horse and the price is extremely tempting for value punters. Recent trial was in slick time over 800m at Cranbourne.|
|Counterattack||Midfield||Best price is $31. He is worth a few million bucks if he can win this so they will be here ready to go. Zahra rides well and interestingly this will be the first time he sees 1000m since his 2yr old days. At the price he is a must include for exotics and it wouldn't shock me if he was ready to go. The trainer is a freak at getting them to win down the straight don't forget although his strike rate in Melbourne has fallen away greatly in the last 6 months.|
|Illustrious Lad||Worse Than Midfield||Best price is $15. Very poorly in here and his racing style and lack of class will see him finish 3-4 off them at best. Nice horse but not today.|
|Faatinah||Leads||Best price is $31. Gets Blinkers on and for mine is better over a longer trip. Drawn the right part of the track but will find them too sharp.|
|Spieth||Midfield||Best price $5. He has more wraps than Shane Warne has on himself. He comes off a nice enough trial (in slow time) so will be fresh but has never raced at the trip. In saying that whilst it's a specialist trip he has the best straight line speed of any in the race so if Hughie doesn't get too far back he can win. $5 around is short enough given he is a stallion, first up and with inexperienced trainer all the same.|
|Supido||Midfield to worse than Midfield||Best price $8. Trialled like a machine recently and will certainly be fit enough. Has had only 9 starts so there is plenty of untapped ability and gets a Visor on today. Also drawn very well. Does get Luke Nolen which won't help as tactically very poor and weak in a finish but as long as he doesn't get too far back he is a genuine winning chance.|
|Orujo||Midfield||Best price $151. It costs close to $6500 to enter the race- I hope the trainer told the connections as this makes their owners day tickets extremely expensive as its no hope of collecting prizemoney here. Needs to finish 8th to earn a cheque and as Darryl Kerrigan from the Castle said "Tell him their dreaming ".|
|Heatherly||2nd pair||Best price $9. Another who has trialled very well recently but drawn poorly on the inside. She is a genuine 1000m specialist but this is not a bad race this year and will need a career best to be in the finish. I think she can do it but if that inside is playing no good like I suspect then her chances are gone. The Oakleigh Plate is her go where she can kick around a bend. She is a specialist at the distance but I think she is more a place chance than winning chance.|
|Flying Artie||On speed||Best price $4.60. Another with the slick trial and to my eye he just doesn't have the leg turnover for a 1000m horse. He has got serious talent obviously but the Newmarket I'd suggest is more his go. I think he will be building up late and whilst he can win I prefer others at this stage. Also, he gets a "gear change" of Heaviest set of colours in racing".|
|Star Turn||Leads||Best price $5. To me this horse is the 1000m horse and the one they have to get past. The hurdles he has to overcome are the inside draw and D Dunn lack of speed understanding . Dunn is renowned for "anchor dropping" which is getting to the front and then slowing down too much and hence losing momentum. Given we have 2-3 that possibly can lead him here supporters of Star Turn need to hope he doesn't lead and rather box seats and therefore doesn't get a say in the tempo. He is an extremely high class horse and much better fresh. His recent trial was a non event run in ordinary time but you would think Hawkes will have him right to go. He is not as good a horse as Flying Artie over 1200m but is much better over 1000m and this is his chance to add the open age Group 1 to his CV.|
|Missrock||Worse than midfield||Best price $81. Gets blinkers here and this girl has more ability than most know but gee she has been poorly placed throughout her career. She is a genuine 1200 to 1400m horse and first they try and make her stay and now she shows up in a race where she is totally unsuited. If she shows up in a mare's race look out she has the talent.|
In summary, the race is Star Turns to lose. The horse who looks to the have the ability and class whilst still untapped is SUPIDO and I think these are the two principal chances. Horses like The Quarterback, Counterattack, Spieth, Heatherly and Flying Artie should fight out the minors. I’d have 4 units on Star Turn and 5 units on Supido at the prices with 1 unit on the Quarterback.
Today’s Sydney card I really like and one race that caught my eye was the first where a few looked to be poorly priced and hence offer an advantage to us. We have a 3m rail position.
|Scarlet Rain||Leads or OSL||Best Price is $3.50. She was exceptional last run and it was an exceptional training performance from Gai Bott to have her win after 315 days off. She ran fast time and was very impressive. She had the 4th best last 800m of the day and if anything this race is weaker. However one of my golden rules of punting is when you see horses who run so well 1st up- especially off a long break if you lay them you will end well in front. Therefore, I can't have her here.|
|Tactical Advantage||Back||Best Price is $3. From the moment he trialled this time in he has looked a star and is unbeaten this prep. This is weaker race than last time and I LOVE the trial on the 6th to just tick him over. The $3 is clearly wrong and I can see him starting in the red if he parades well.|
|Spending To Win||Leads||Best Price is $3.20. Was only beaten 0.2 to Tactical Advantage but he had all favours that day and for mine is not in the same class. He warrants respect as I've got him whacking away for 2nd but if Tactical Advantage shows up he beats him again.|
|Ebenos||Box Seat||Best Price is $6. He might be the value here for the quinella followers and I expect he will attract some support. He doesn't have the class of most of them but gets a nice run in behind them and can run a place.|
|Niccobelle||Back||Best Price is $34. Very surprised to see them here as Kristen Buchanan is a very good trainer and normally places her horses great and this is a bizarre decision to run here- albeit as long as he jumps from the gates he is guaranteed $2500.|
Last week we missed again and are down minus 14 units so time to get our finger out with this free public preview
This week in Sydney I suggest we keep it simple and invest the following: 5 units on Tactical Advantage at the $3 on offer
On the paid services update the Luke Murrell Horse Selections had a massive week with the bank now over $10,000 this year alone in profit.
Chooser was boring again winning another $1,000 but that’s what it does best- takes out the ups and downs and just chips away.
Stay tuned next week for a massive offer across both products to help you win more money on the punt!!
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.