17/01/13
On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what will be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
The four original articles which can be viewed HERE – HERE – HERE and HERE contained the names of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first four calendar months of the new racing season, namely 1/8/12 to 31/8/12 inclusive, 1/9/12 to 30/9/12 inclusive, 1/10/12 to 31/10/12 and 1/11/12 to 30/11/12 inclusive.
Also noted was 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the December 2012 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.
Please note that in the below text “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of December 2012 is:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACE
PRICE
TRAINER
1/12
B-G3
Kilwinning Option
Secret Garden
Peace Talks
Risk Aversion
Fire Up Fifi
Jester’s Girl
Rundle
Holey Gadoley
Discreet
18
28
19
23
15
16
24
22
19
1
9
3
7
5
1
10
5
4
$2.80
$19
$15
$4.80
$4.40
$41
$61
$12
$4
Rowe
P. Nolan Jnr
Webb
Lakey
Heathcote
Ryan
Purdy
Duff
Schweida
S-G3
Hurricane Hemmy
Happy Hussy
Our Design
Youthful Jack
Stratford
Anything
Forster
Lady Be Great
Emperator
Tunes
22
15
34
17
41
19
25
46
64
25
6
4
3
8
3
9
6
1
13
10
$12
$6.50
$7
$31
$2.70
$101
$6
$6.50
$91
$6
Ryan
Payne
A. Cummings
Stitt
Hawkes
Sues
Hawkes
Coyle
Robinson
Snowden
M-G3
Macedonian
White Universe
Euryale
Flying Hula
Goldslick
Verdasco
Diplomatic Force
Shock Value
Future Solution
42
65
21
40
19
18
16
17
19
5
8
3
9
5
12
2
13
6
$51
$9
$11
$26
$6.50
$15
$21
$15
$31
Moody
Moody
Snowden
Weir
Kent
Mott
Nichols
Hayes
Harris
8/12
B-G3
Avaladyluck
Caliente
Signified
Last Gift
B/bury Chocolate
Jopa
Belltone
G’Day Old Mate
Startsmeup
Captain Clayton
Easy Lager
24
22
19
13
19
16
20
36
15
24
21
8
1
5
1
7
8
11
2
1
7
9
$21
$7
$15
$6.50
$4
$9
$7
$7
$6.50
$15
$101
Kendrick
Hill
Wood
Fogarty
Baker
Pritchard
Wood
Squair
Heinrich
Heathcote
Milne
S-G3
Treaty
Madam Nash
Secessio
Zak/thos Imprintz
Riva De Lago
Kirinata
N/ber One Gun
20
15
24
19
21
18
18
3
12
8
4
2
5
9
$16
$20
$10
$31
$3.30
$51
$10
Snowden
Waller
Waller
Nickson
Waller
Perry
O’Shea
M-G3
Meloria
Royal Zenith
Tariana
Queen’s Ransom
Mawaakib
Catapulted
The Soldier
Undeniably
Hotham Heights
Magic Weekend
Infinite Energy
18
26
19
28
24
30
17
26
23
36
20
5
9
4
9
4
1
10
2
3
12
1
$5
$101
$7.50
$7.50
$10
$6
$17
$31
$21
$18
$5
Moody
Lawson
Price
Price
Hayes
Kavanagh
Cozmanis
Kavanagh
Oliver
Hawkes
Moody
15/12
B-G3
Gold Shears
Noogoora Burr
Tuskegee Hawk
Bingo Rose
Miss Imagica
Rosagaze
Aquatorial
Viking Heart
12
27
24
22
13
25
16
21
8
8
15
9
8
7
10
2
$51
$14
$61
$71
$12
$21
$10
$6
Baldwin
Hansen
Treloar
Consadine
M. Nolan
Mayfi/Smith
Macrae
Schweida
S-G3
Centrepet
Bennetta
She’s Clean
Song And Roses
Song Shan
Havana Rey
Alumbrado
Whitlam
Kimberley Kid
24
19
20
22
31
19
22
16
19
5
2
1
8
9
8
11
1
7
$4.80
$3.10
$4
$51
$31
$6
$11
$11
$51
Ryan
Begg
Waller
Moses
A. Cummings
Baker
Waugh
Lees
Payne
M-D4
Jolie Blonde
Deeming
La Tikka Rosa
Jeteven
Snapparazi
Goldstone
Too Deadly
Big Bear Rock
Hurdy Gurdy Man
Dayita
Urban Explorer
Devils Force
Giresun
Laspiel
Angolaner
Wells
Durnford
39
29
20
38
16
27
19
20
27
18
22
34
18
27
52
19
29
6
4
2
10
8
3
4
1
5
11
9
5
7
12
13
9
10
$8
$51
$13
$51
$26
$6
$10
$4.40
$41
$7
$31
$16
$10
$51
$12
$21
$31
Riley
Griffiths
Moody
Besanko
Marshman
B. Cummings
Craven
Brown
Weir
Moody
Conlan
Riley
Snowden
Webb
Moody
Durden
Carey
22/12
B-G3
Azzaland
Miss Barwang
I’m Cool
Run With Me
86
16
15
15
6
9
1
10
$3.60
$31
$2.25
$13
Stephenson
McLachlan
Forster
Whittington
S-G3
Whitefriars
Hypurr
Skytrain
Slow The Flow
99
41
18
43
8
4
6
9
$6
$18
$8
$18
Worthington
Pride
Snowden
Smith
M-G3
Go The Knuckle
Beltrois
Crystalised
Riverina’s Girl
Lucky Eighty Eight
Lone Command
Baron Douro
Pillar of Creation
32
59
32
21
33
59
22
33
2
1
10
6
11
2
10
4
$2.40
$21
$13
$17
$17
$9
$7
$9
Smerdon
Griffiths
A. Freedman
Burke
Ellerton/Zahra
Hawkes
P.Payne
Ellerton/Zahra
29/12
B-G3
Warrior Girl
Top Of The Rock
Fusil De Eve
Brigadoon Jack
What About Me
Tokamak
Night Chills
36
18
17
19
40
27
25
3
7
4
13
7
4
12
$13
$7
$21
$11
$16
$9
$31
Purdy
M. Nolan
McLachlan
Hill
Schweida
Lockwood
Ryan
S-G3
Yulalona
Silk Pins
Bello
High On Believing
Southern Skye
Zedlion
Kaypers
Superior Instinct
War Charm
14
42
18
14
21
25
19
34
21
5
6
3
8
7
2
12
8
3
$17
$6.50
$12
$4.40
$41
$21
$10
$21
$11
Snowden
Waller
Snowden
Waller
Perry
Coyle
Bennett
D. Smith
Williams
M-D4
Good Story
Backbone
Avoid Lightning
Two Hills
Zippa The Rippa
Valedictorian
Chinzia
14
34
19
31
44
15
14
9
2
2
5
3
7
6
$11
$6
$3.60
$51
$9
$15
$26
Page
Kent
Jolly
Browell
Hayes
Hayes
Cox
To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during December 2012 another 130 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 130 horses only 13 won, meaning that in the five months to date of the current racing season, a total of 692 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne and of those 692 horses only 72 have won, which means just 10.40% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012, so conversely an amazing 89.60% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $692 and they’d get back just $549.46, so they’d lose 20.59% of their stake. Two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12.
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 59 horses in that category, season-to-date and the return would have been $54.76, so a punter would break almost square on that method, as the financial loss would only be 7.18%.
In the sampled timeframe, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the sampled timeframe the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other two trainers that have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks, were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12 and Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off.
In Brisbane only 17 of 155 first up horses have won in the season-to-date which means 10.97% have won – and conversely 89.03% have been beaten.
In Sydney 30 of 191 horses resuming have won which means 15.71% have won – and conversely 84.29% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 25 horses from the 301 that have resumed to the end of November 2012 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.31% have won, or conversely 91.69% have been beaten.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 8/9/12 at Flemington in the Bobbie Lewis Quality where nine horses resumed – Mosheen, We’re Gonna Rock, Ahdashim, Scintillo, Smokin’ Joey, Spirit of Boom, Speediness, Blackie and Pago Rock – and We’re Gonna Rock won the race as the $6.50 equal favourite.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 10 of the 59 winners (16.95%) started at odds-on, so 10 horses weren’t betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor.
I will continue to do a monthly “spelling horses resuming” article for each month of the entire current racing season and give cumulative updated statistics in each article to prove once and for all just how bad backing them is for the hip pocket.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au we look a great historical photo of the long departed champion Queensland stallion Smokey Eyes and that stallion’s interesting connection to the sale topper at the just completed Magic Millions sale. On www.sydneyracing.com.au we pop into John McCarthy’s world and meet his new pacer, as well as getting an update on recent SA Cup winner Smoken Up, then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at that great race from last Spring – the Caulfield Guineas.