BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 10

19/06/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The nine previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first nine calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly article’s have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.

Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the May 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States during that month.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of May 2013 in those three States reads:

 

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

4/5

GC-G3

SIR MOMENTS

20

6

$7.50

O’Dea

 

 

MISSY LONGSTOCKING

16

4

$3.80

Birchley

 

 

MORE STRAWBERRIES

50

12

$26

Wood

 

 

WHATEVERWHENEVER

19

13

$31

Birchley

 

 

DUAL CHAMBER

44

14

$26

Dunn

 

 

BOUND TO BLUSH

19

5

$4

O’Shea

 

 

SIZZLING

16

5

$2.30

Wood

 

 

SALUTER

16

11

$9

McLachlan

 

 

LUKE’S LUCK

21

14

$21

Schweida

 

 

ACADEMUS

23

1

$5

Snowden

 

 

DANCES ON STARS

18

3

$12

Ryan

 

 

PLATINUM STATE

16

6

$21

Guy

 

 

AL ANEED

17

2

$20

Price

 

 

GENERAL EXHIBIT

13

4

$21

Page

 

H-G3

PRINCE OF SOFIA

32

8

$13

Waugh

 

 

NISSILE

25

6

$7

D. Smith

 

 

QUIDNUNC

19

7

$7

Snowden

 

 

HOLY MOLY

19

11

$20

Sergeant

 

 

PIPETTE

16

3

$14

Waller

 

 

BALAVAN

13

4

$21

Waller

 

 

RIOMORAL

22

12

$101

McInerney

 

 

CORNWALL PARK

42

9

$18

A. Cummings

 

 

BABEL

16

2

$5.50

Snowden

 

 

TOM’S ROCKET

73

11

$51

Rowley

 

 

IMPERIL

13

8

$6.50

Snowden

 

M-G3

HAWKS BAY

38

4

$61

Dyer

 

 

STREETS AWAY

22

5

$17

Weir

 

 

GOOD VALUE

25

2

$9

Kent

 

 

STRAWBERRY BOY

31

1

$1.80

Moody

 

 

FOREVER CRAZY

12

6

$12

Waller

 

 

LA TIKKA ROSA

20

7

$11

Moody

 

 

OUR CELLARDOOR

22

4

$9.50

Moody

11/5

B-H9

GUNDY SON

12

5

$21

Heathcote

 

 

GRIFFON

44

4

$4.60

Heathcote

 

 

BENNY’S BUTTONS

97

1

$14

Wood

 

 

ARCHTIECT

15

12

$8.50

Lawlor

 

 

VILANOVA

14

2

$9.50

Waller

 

 

GLOBAL DREAM

17

3

$12

Gollan

 

 

YOUR SONG

31

1

$12

Cummings

 

 

REFLECTANCE

21

5

$81

Thompson

 

 

SOMEDAY

19

2

$7

Wood

 

 

HEZA JETSETTER

17

6

$11

Heathcote

 

 

SONS OF GOD

17

5

$8.50

Heathcote

 

S-G3

RELAXED AND HAPPY

15

2

$5

Waller

 

 

HARADA BAY

17

8

$14

Bailey

 

 

EMBLEMS

24

3

$6

Snowden

 

 

CANNY BALLAD

21

10

$13

Walter

 

 

ANEVAY

22

4

$4

Begg

 

 

TITBIT

15

10

$21

Waller

 

 

URGENT BELLS

29

1

$7

Lees

 

 

FAST AND SEXY

27

8

$10

Waller

 

 

MAXIMUS GLADIATOR

23

6

$13

Vandyke

 

 

WINNING GLORY

12

7

$71

Payne

 

 

THUMBTACKS

13

7

$21

Waller

 

 

COUP AY TEE

21

6

$13

Waller

 

 

BIG BONANZA

28

2

$7

Robb

 

 

BRIAN’S HONOUR

28

11

$41

Hawkes

 

 

COMBAT KITTY

29

7

$21

M. Smith

 

 

KEY WEST

32

10

$11

Waller

 

 

INFINITE ENERGY

14

9

$4.40

Moody

 

 

HAPPY HUSSY

21

6

$8

Vandyke

 

 

DISCIPLE

12

1

$16

Waller

 

 

TURF HERO

43

14

$21

Markwell

 

 

ZAUBERFLOTE

24

8

$14

Walter

 

 

RUMOUR AND SCANDAL

28

12

$26

Thompson

 

M-D4

PRIMITIVE MAN

19

1

$61

Fliedner

 

 

CARDINAL VIRTUE

14

11

$12

Binaisse

 

 

PAGO ROCK

35

1

$8.50

Hayes

 

 

ROCKPECKER

17

7

$51

Fythe

 

 

OVERTAKE

26

4

$26

Oliver

 

 

BOLTON

16

6

$51

Brown

 

 

INTENCION

23

8

$41

Bourke

 

 

AMETSIS

19

5

$15

Cameron

18/5

B-D4

ABU BEN ADAM

21

7

$31

Duff

 

 

IBICENCO

26

5

$15

Moody

 

 

LILLIBURLERO

20

5

$31

Payne

 

S-G3

CLICKETY SNIP

17

10

$15

Bennett

 

 

LADY LA DOUCE

22

4

$13

Croft

 

 

OH MY PAPA

20

6

$7

Bennett

 

 

SLIPPERY MOSS

20

14

$13

Perry

 

 

MAMWAAZEL

13

8

$5.50

Waller

 

 

NORTHERN GLORY

20

3

$3.50

W/house

 

 

FAIRYLAND

30

11

$17

Martin

 

 

ZIGGIES DANCE

19

12

$101

Milne

 

 

NO LOOKING BACK

18

9

$3.70

W/house

 

 

SNIPER’S BULLET

61

8

$71

Bartley

 

 

THE OFFER

29

12

$21

W/house

 

 

ANGEL OF MERCY

22

9

$12

Ryan

 

 

MIC MAC

56

11

$16

Messara

 

 

ZARATONE

16

4

$4.80

Baker

 

 

MOTSPUR

17

10

$14

Lees

 

M-D4

ELETTO

14

11

$101

Waymouth

 

 

MAGLISSA

17

6

$26

Griffiths

 

 

MAGNETIC QUEEN

18

10

$12

Moody

 

 

TURNER BAYOU

42

6

$26

P. Payne

 

 

EXTRA ZERO

26

4

$21

Hayes

 

 

ANOTHER PRELATE

17

2

$10

Scott

 

 

ULUNDI

20

14

$31

Eden

 

 

TESTASCANA

27

12

$31

Cerchi

 

 

BY THE WAY

18

2

$14

Lewis

 

 

REMEMBA HOWE

30

10

$71

Walker

 

 

JOHANNAPINE

44

8

$14

Webb

 

 

BALZEUS

35

11

$51

O’Sullivan

25/5

B-G3

LOVE FOR RANSOM

30

9

$9

Eurell

 

 

AUDACIOUS SPIRIT

20

9

$7

Heinrich

 

 

PENTASIA

24

1

$7

Quinn

 

 

MY QUEST FOR PEACE

28

7

$31

Moody

 

S-H9

NEWS ALERT

28

2

$51

Moses

 

 

SHE’S CLEAN

13

1

$3.40

Waller

 

 

DEE’N’GEE

28

3

$8.50

C. Conners

 

 

PRETTY PINS

30

5

$19

Thompson

 

 

BAY WINDOW

25

11

$21

Markwell

 

 

GAROZZA

20

12

$12

D. Kelly

 

 

SASTRUGA

18

5

$11

Snowden

 

 

YULALONA

17

10

$26

Snowden

 

M-D5

BRAINY BOY

57

10

$61

Houlahan

 

 

QUICK SNITZEL

19

5

$15

Moody

 

 

KING KROVANH

23

7

$6

Moody

 

 

GOOD STORY

15

11

$26

Page

 

 

LUCK’S A FORTUNE

13

10

$51

Carey

 

 

LE BIJOU

24

13

$101

B. Cummings

 

 

EDGEWOOD

27

10

$4.60

Griffiths

 

 

SPENDING

14

2

$11

O’Brien

 

 

SHE CAN SKATE

14

1

$12

Wheeler

 

 

MR MAKE BELIEVE

27

1

$4.40

Moody

 

 

BASIL DE MAN

35

10

$12

Oxlade

 

 

SPACECRAFT

18

7

$41

Hayes

 

 

GOD’S WINDOW

42

11

$8

Dwyer

 

 

ANY DREAM WILL DO

48

8

$11

Campbell

 

 

MATIYA’S PRIDE

27

11

$101

Bennett

 

 

MR O’CEIRIN

32

6

$31

Maher

 

 

PAKAL

35

5

$41

Price

 

 

SAHARA SUN

81

11

$101

Maher

 

 

BIT OF HELL

24

2

$31

Price

 

 

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during May 2013 another 134 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 134 horses only 12 (8.95%) won, meaning that in the 10 months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1451 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1451 horses only 142.5 have won, which means just 9.82% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March, April and May 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.18% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1451 and they’d get back just $1057.01, so they’d lose 27.16% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 121 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $121 and the return would have been $107.81, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 11.91%. In the month of May 2013 of the eight horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 2 (25.00%) won (Strawberry Boy $1.80 and She’s Clean $3.40).

In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season-to-date, the best training performance has undoubtedly been by Kelso Wood in Brisbane as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season-to-date is by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The third best effort in the racing season-to-date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 29 of 340 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.52% have won – and conversely 91.48% have been beaten.

In Sydney 48 of 490 horses resuming to the end of May 2013 have won, which means 9.79% have won – and conversely 90.21% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 50.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 570 that have resumed to the end of May 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.85% have won, or conversely 91.15% have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 16 of the 129.5 winners (12.35%) started at odds-on, so 16 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Strawberry Boy ($1.80) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during May 2013 and he was successful at Flemington on 4/5/13.

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