19/06/13
On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
The nine previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first nine calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly article’s have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.
Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the May 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States during that month.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of May 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
4/5
GC-G3
SIR MOMENTS
20
6
$7.50
O’Dea
MISSY LONGSTOCKING
16
4
$3.80
Birchley
MORE STRAWBERRIES
50
12
$26
Wood
WHATEVERWHENEVER
19
13
$31
Birchley
DUAL CHAMBER
44
14
$26
Dunn
BOUND TO BLUSH
19
5
$4
O’Shea
SIZZLING
16
5
$2.30
Wood
SALUTER
16
11
$9
McLachlan
LUKE’S LUCK
21
14
$21
Schweida
ACADEMUS
23
1
$5
Snowden
DANCES ON STARS
18
3
$12
Ryan
PLATINUM STATE
16
6
$21
Guy
AL ANEED
17
2
$20
Price
GENERAL EXHIBIT
13
4
$21
Page
H-G3
PRINCE OF SOFIA
32
8
$13
Waugh
NISSILE
25
6
$7
D. Smith
QUIDNUNC
19
7
$7
Snowden
HOLY MOLY
19
11
$20
Sergeant
PIPETTE
16
3
$14
Waller
BALAVAN
13
4
$21
Waller
RIOMORAL
22
12
$101
McInerney
CORNWALL PARK
42
9
$18
A. Cummings
BABEL
16
2
$5.50
Snowden
TOM’S ROCKET
73
11
$51
Rowley
IMPERIL
13
8
$6.50
Snowden
M-G3
HAWKS BAY
38
4
$61
Dyer
STREETS AWAY
22
5
$17
Weir
GOOD VALUE
25
2
$9
Kent
STRAWBERRY BOY
31
1
$1.80
Moody
FOREVER CRAZY
12
6
$12
Waller
LA TIKKA ROSA
20
7
$11
Moody
OUR CELLARDOOR
22
4
$9.50
Moody
11/5
B-H9
GUNDY SON
12
5
$21
Heathcote
GRIFFON
44
4
$4.60
Heathcote
BENNY’S BUTTONS
97
1
$14
Wood
ARCHTIECT
15
12
$8.50
Lawlor
VILANOVA
14
2
$9.50
Waller
GLOBAL DREAM
17
3
$12
Gollan
YOUR SONG
31
1
$12
Cummings
REFLECTANCE
21
5
$81
Thompson
SOMEDAY
19
2
$7
Wood
HEZA JETSETTER
17
6
$11
Heathcote
SONS OF GOD
17
5
$8.50
Heathcote
S-G3
RELAXED AND HAPPY
15
2
$5
Waller
HARADA BAY
17
8
$14
Bailey
EMBLEMS
24
3
$6
Snowden
CANNY BALLAD
21
10
$13
Walter
ANEVAY
22
4
$4
Begg
TITBIT
15
10
$21
Waller
URGENT BELLS
29
1
$7
Lees
FAST AND SEXY
27
8
$10
Waller
MAXIMUS GLADIATOR
23
6
$13
Vandyke
WINNING GLORY
12
7
$71
Payne
THUMBTACKS
13
7
$21
Waller
COUP AY TEE
21
6
$13
Waller
BIG BONANZA
28
2
$7
Robb
BRIAN’S HONOUR
28
11
$41
Hawkes
COMBAT KITTY
29
7
$21
M. Smith
KEY WEST
32
10
$11
Waller
INFINITE ENERGY
14
9
$4.40
Moody
HAPPY HUSSY
21
6
$8
Vandyke
DISCIPLE
12
1
$16
Waller
TURF HERO
43
14
$21
Markwell
ZAUBERFLOTE
24
8
$14
Walter
RUMOUR AND SCANDAL
28
12
$26
Thompson
M-D4
PRIMITIVE MAN
19
1
$61
Fliedner
CARDINAL VIRTUE
14
11
$12
Binaisse
PAGO ROCK
35
1
$8.50
Hayes
ROCKPECKER
17
7
$51
Fythe
OVERTAKE
26
4
$26
Oliver
BOLTON
16
6
$51
Brown
INTENCION
23
8
$41
Bourke
AMETSIS
19
5
$15
Cameron
18/5
B-D4
ABU BEN ADAM
21
7
$31
Duff
IBICENCO
26
5
$15
Moody
LILLIBURLERO
20
5
$31
Payne
S-G3
CLICKETY SNIP
17
10
$15
Bennett
LADY LA DOUCE
22
4
$13
Croft
OH MY PAPA
20
6
$7
Bennett
SLIPPERY MOSS
20
14
$13
Perry
MAMWAAZEL
13
8
$5.50
Waller
NORTHERN GLORY
20
3
$3.50
W/house
FAIRYLAND
30
11
$17
Martin
ZIGGIES DANCE
19
12
$101
Milne
NO LOOKING BACK
18
9
$3.70
W/house
SNIPER’S BULLET
61
8
$71
Bartley
THE OFFER
29
12
$21
W/house
ANGEL OF MERCY
22
9
$12
Ryan
MIC MAC
56
11
$16
Messara
ZARATONE
16
4
$4.80
Baker
MOTSPUR
17
10
$14
Lees
M-D4
ELETTO
14
11
$101
Waymouth
MAGLISSA
17
6
$26
Griffiths
MAGNETIC QUEEN
18
10
$12
Moody
TURNER BAYOU
42
6
$26
P. Payne
EXTRA ZERO
26
4
$21
Hayes
ANOTHER PRELATE
17
2
$10
Scott
ULUNDI
20
14
$31
Eden
TESTASCANA
27
12
$31
Cerchi
BY THE WAY
18
2
$14
Lewis
REMEMBA HOWE
30
10
$71
Walker
JOHANNAPINE
44
8
$14
Webb
BALZEUS
35
11
$51
O’Sullivan
25/5
B-G3
LOVE FOR RANSOM
30
9
$9
Eurell
AUDACIOUS SPIRIT
20
9
$7
Heinrich
PENTASIA
24
1
$7
Quinn
MY QUEST FOR PEACE
28
7
$31
Moody
S-H9
NEWS ALERT
28
2
$51
Moses
SHE’S CLEAN
13
1
$3.40
Waller
DEE’N’GEE
28
3
$8.50
C. Conners
PRETTY PINS
30
5
$19
Thompson
BAY WINDOW
25
11
$21
Markwell
GAROZZA
20
12
$12
D. Kelly
SASTRUGA
18
5
$11
Snowden
YULALONA
17
10
$26
Snowden
M-D5
BRAINY BOY
57
10
$61
Houlahan
QUICK SNITZEL
19
5
$15
Moody
KING KROVANH
23
7
$6
Moody
GOOD STORY
15
11
$26
Page
LUCK’S A FORTUNE
13
10
$51
Carey
LE BIJOU
24
13
$101
B. Cummings
EDGEWOOD
27
10
$4.60
Griffiths
SPENDING
14
2
$11
O’Brien
SHE CAN SKATE
14
1
$12
Wheeler
MR MAKE BELIEVE
27
1
$4.40
Moody
BASIL DE MAN
35
10
$12
Oxlade
SPACECRAFT
18
7
$41
Hayes
GOD’S WINDOW
42
11
$8
Dwyer
ANY DREAM WILL DO
48
8
$11
Campbell
MATIYA’S PRIDE
27
11
$101
Bennett
MR O’CEIRIN
32
6
$31
Maher
PAKAL
35
5
$41
Price
SAHARA SUN
81
11
$101
Maher
BIT OF HELL
24
2
$31
Price
To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during May 2013 another 134 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 134 horses only 12 (8.95%) won, meaning that in the 10 months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1451 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1451 horses only 142.5 have won, which means just 9.82% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March, April and May 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.18% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1451 and they’d get back just $1057.01, so they’d lose 27.16% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost.
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 121 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $121 and the return would have been $107.81, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 11.91%. In the month of May 2013 of the eight horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 2 (25.00%) won (Strawberry Boy $1.80 and She’s Clean $3.40).
In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the racing season-to-date, the best training performance has undoubtedly been by Kelso Wood in Brisbane as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season-to-date is by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The third best effort in the racing season-to-date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.
In Brisbane only 29 of 340 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.52% have won – and conversely 91.48% have been beaten.
In Sydney 48 of 490 horses resuming to the end of May 2013 have won, which means 9.79% have won – and conversely 90.21% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 50.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 570 that have resumed to the end of May 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.85% have won, or conversely 91.15% have been beaten.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 16 of the 129.5 winners (12.35%) started at odds-on, so 16 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Strawberry Boy ($1.80) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during May 2013 and he was successful at Flemington on 4/5/13.