BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 11

BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 11

17/07/13

On 30/8/12, I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The 10 previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first 10 calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly articles have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.

Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the June 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States of Australia during that month.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of June 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

1/6

B-S7

CLASSICS

20

5

$7

Snowden

 

 

OUR HUSSEY

21

10

$101

Hill

 

 

FERMENT

16

8

$71

Thompson

 

S-D5

AL NOVA

15

11

$17

Godbolt

 

 

RECOINAGE

27

8

$26

Thompson

 

 

NOCTURNELLE

12

2

$7

Waller

 

 

TROMSO

21

8

$15

Waller

 

 

ANGELUS

18

5

$9

Snowden

 

 

BERRIMILLA

20

5

$5

Waller

 

 

IMELDAMAY

19

10

$6

Curtis

 

 

ARMS LENGTH

16

8

$51

Goldman

 

 

OAKFIELD COMET

70

9

$17

D. Smith

 

 

GLIDING

64

10

$51

B.  Cummings

 

 

RULE BOOK

36

10

$20

W/house

 

 

PLATINUM JACK

16

15

$81

Singleton

8/6

B-D4

MOROCCAN ROSE

23

10

$21

Heinrich

 

 

JOLIE MADELEINE

18

8

$31

Cousins

 

 

VINTAGE MOSS

17

13

$11

Fitzgerald

 

S-D4

BIG MEMORY

29

8

$19

McEvoy

 

 

RIVER OF SALVATION

19

3

$41

Pfieffer

 

 

LEICESTER SQUARE

25

15

$15

Messara

 

 

BURBERO

16

7

$5.50

Baker

 

 

ROSE OF SCOTLAND

15

5

$41

Lees

 

 

NEESON

53

2

$13

Hawkes

 

 

CHARING CROSS

22

10

$21

W/house

 

 

SAMUI LAD

18

9

$21

W/house

 

 

VIKING LEGEND

59

7

$81

Simp/Barnes

 

M-D5

CROOKHAVEN

20

9

$7.50

Kavanagh

 

 

WINTA CHILLER

18

3

$16

Pecora

 

 

WRITTEN OFF

40

14

$71

Cozamanis

 

 

STREETS OF SEATTLE

14

9

$61

Moloney

 

 

DANISH WHISKEY

18

7

$13

Kent

 

 

OMINOUS QUALITY

12

10

$7

Bride/Feek

 

 

BROKEN

33

3

$13

Weir

 

 

SHADOWFAX

33

8

$26

Oliver

 

 

DARK NOTE

22

11

$151

Houlahan

 

 

UNDER THE HAT

14

4

$21

Sadler

 

 

MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL

51

3

$19

Weir

 

 

GREY MONARCH

30

12

$101

Meunier

15/6

B-S7

AQUATOR

13

10

$14

Balzen

 

 

MR ORIENT

18

4

$13

Balzen

 

 

CAPE KIDNAPPERS

61

1

$1.90

Schweida

 

 

TRIPLE SIX

18

16

$41

Pfieffer

 

S-D5

KONTIKI PARK

31

7

$9

W/house

 

 

REUBEN PERCIVAL

17

5

$31

W/house

 

 

VELROSSO

30

4

$6

Waller

 

 

SESSIONS

23

1

$2.30

Snowden

 

 

GOLDEN SUNSHINE

13

3

$10

Worthington

 

M-D5

RIVER PAGEANT

36

6

$21

Price

 

 

SEA LORD

16

4

$4.40

S. Brown

 

 

LORD PYRUS

30

7

$31

Mawer

 

 

STRADA’S DIAMOND

26

12

$21

Cavanough

 

 

THORNY CHICK

45

7

$16

Alderson

 

 

SEAGALLEON

38

7

$26

Alderson

 

 

HANKS

59

8

$51

Moody

 

 

CAPITAL COMMANDER

17

4

$3.60

Olive

 

 

GO KATRINA

15

10

$41

Cavanough

 

 

MOSSE DIVA

17

8

$8

Hayes

22/6

B-S7

MISS ORIELLE

47

6

$17

Dawson

 

S-H10

COOL DAYS

19

6

$5

W/house

 

M-D4

HAUSSMAN

19

8

$11

Snowden

 

 

COMMITTED

39

5

$12

Alderson

 

 

THE CLEANER

16

1

$7

Burles

 

 

MR GRISWOLD

49

8

$81

Ellerton/Zahra

 

 

NICHOLLS COURT

41

10

$7

Dickson

 

 

INNOCENT LADY

25

7

$31

Lamine

29/6

SC-H9

BOOGIE SHOES

36

5

$6.50

Sergeant

 

 

HUCKLEBERRY JANE

18

8

$21

Birchley

 

 

NICKIERA

12

7

$31

Thomas

 

 

POMPIDOU

30

4

$13

Bennett

 

 

TOM’S LUCK

13

2

$12

McLachlan

 

 

SMAKATUS

20

1

$13

Duff

 

 

FLYING DYNAMITE

15

10

$101

White

 

M-D5

DENPASAR

19

6

$6.50

Snowden

 

 

PRAKTICALITY

17

10

$51

Portelli

 

 

EMPEROR’S CHARIOT

29

9

$21

Besanko

 

 

OCTAVIA

20

2

$4.60

Moroney

 

 

EXCEPTIONALLY

30

8

$21

O’Sullivan

 

 

RED TYPHOON

35

13

$71

Smerdon

 

 

CLEAR FOR ACTION

87

7

$11

Conlan

 

It should be noted that during June 2013 partly or fully washed out meetings affected the numbers that resumed from a spell to a major degree and only another 80 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 80 horses only 4 (5.00%) won, meaning that in the 11 months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1531 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1531 horses only 146.5 have won, which means just 9.56% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March, April, May and June 2103 – so conversely an amazing 90.44% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1531 and they’d get back just $1081.21, so they’d lose 29.38% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost. No roughies won in June 2013 to help the figures as Caloundra Cup day winner Smakatus at $13 was the roughest of the four winners.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 124 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $124 and the return would have been $112.01, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 9.67%. In the month of June 2013 of the three horses resuming that started $4 or under, two (66.66%) won (Cape Kidnappers $1.90 and Sessions $2.30).

In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season-to-date, the best training performance has undoubtedly been by Brisbane’s Kelso Wood, as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season-to-date was by another Brisbane based trainer, Kelly Schweida, who trained Cape Kidnappers to win on Ipswich Cup day (15/6/13) after 61 weeks off. Next was Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington on 22/12/12 after 59 weeks off. The fourth best effort in the racing season-to-date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 31 of 358 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.65% have won – and conversely 91.35% have been beaten.

In Sydney 49 of 517 horses resuming to the end of June 2013 have won, which means 9.47% have won – and conversely 90.53% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 51.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 605 that have resumed to the end of June 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.51% have won, or conversely 91.49% have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date18 of the 146.5 winners (12.28%) started at odds-on, so 18 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Cape Kidnappers ($1.90) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during June 2013 and he was successful at Ipswich on their Cup day – 15/6/13.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday, plus others of interest, like how Gold Coast couple John and Helen Page looked in 1986. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the next in the popular What’s In A Name segment from last Saturday’s races, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Victorian racing scene.