BACKING OR TIPPING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A MUGS GAME.

01/08/13

On 30/8/12, I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The 11 previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first 11 months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly articles have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what has gone up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.

Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the July 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States of Australia during that month.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of July 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACE

PRICE

TRAINER

6/7

B-S6

PETA PUMPKINEATER

$31

Lawlor

FACE OFF

$16

Heathcote

STYLE

$4.60

Allard

SHAFEEQ

$18

Forster

S-S7

KIROV

$15

Martin

REMOS

$151

Graham

PRAECIDO

$17

Payne

KENNY’S WORLD

$61

G. Murray

MY DESTINY

$14

Berry

WHITLAM

$3.30

Lees

FLYING EXPRESS

$21

Pride

SUSSURO

$26

Messara

GENERAL’S SNIPER

$61

Bartley

M-G3

CHASSE

$26

Snowden

13/7

B-S6

ALL THAT

$7.50

Stevens

NOISY OCEAN

$21

Guy

REGULAR

$13

Guy

CALIENTE

$11

Hill

FUSIL DE EVE

$41

McLachlan

SNOWTOP

$61

Meagher

S-S6

MISS TWIN PEAKS

$18

Baker

SNITZEL’S JEWEL

$8.50

Ryan

BUTTONS

$6.50

Messara

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

$19

Nickson

ABITOFADO

$201

Gentle

MAGIC WEEKEND

$41

Hawkes

ALLABOUT GLORY

$17

Austin

M-D5

REGIMENTAL PRIDE

$20

Brown

CHANGE OF HONOUR

$11

Price

MOUNT ZERO

$7.50

Hayes

KUKLA

Moody

SENSATIONAL REPORT

$41

Wynne

STANZOUT

$91

Davies

HAPPY GALAXY

$3.70

Hawkes

MRS ONASSIS

$5.50

Ryan

DRUNKEN POET

$101

Smerdon

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

$15

Ellerton

20/7

B-H9

BALLYBIT

Heathcote

DIVINE CITY

Taylor

NOVEMBER GREY

$31

Brosnan

GREY ASSIGNMENT

$15

Wood

CRAIGLEA FALCON

$17

Fleming

S-S6

WARCRUSHER

$21

Baker

MACDOOM

$151

McGregor

SEGUE

$16

Snowden

TURNLEY

$6.50

C. Conners

SAILOR’S FAREWELL

$51

Berry

KIM WARRIOR

$51

B. Cummings

SAN ZIAM

$51

Bartley

WASZ

$10

Waller

ATOMIC FORCE

$15

Smith

CHOICE WORDS

$4.40

Vandyke

M-H8

SINHALA

$16

Laing

YULEBA

$18

Cox

DAYLIGHT SECOND

$7.50

Carey

CANNES DESTINATION

$9.50

Gower

SARI

Snowden

APPOINT

$26

Hasan

CHEVIOT BEACH

$61

Blackiston

CANALI

$13

Brown

27/7

B-D5

TERONADO

$19

Hill

VOODOO BLUE MAGIC

$8.50

Ross

BILLY AUCASH

$26

B. Smith

MUKADDAMAH SON

Duncan

REILLY BLUE

$41

Clarke

QFIGHTER

$17

Dunn

SPECIAL LIE

$21

Lakey

S-S6

WINDSWEPT

$3.90

Ryan

TOTAL ATTRACTION

$3.30

Vandyke

HAVANA REY

$10

Baker

SAINTHOOD

$31

Worthington

MARDEN

$41

Waller

PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT

$71

McInerney

M-D5

LADYS ANGEL

$13

O’Brien

MISS BINDI

$31

Alderson

SHE GOES TO RIO

$14

Weir

JIGGLE IT

$41

Roberts

LAUNAY

Snowden

During July 2013 another 78 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 78 horses only 2 (2.56%) won, meaning that in the 12 months of the 2012/2013 racing season, a total of 1609 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1609 horses only 148.5 have won, which means just 9.22% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the full racing season from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2013 – meaning conversely an amazing 90.78% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1609 and they’d get back just $1098.21, so they’d lose 31.75% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost. Neither of the two winners in July 2013 was a roughie.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 130 horses in that category in the full racing season, so a punter would obviously outlay $130 and the return would have been $112.01, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 13.84%. In the month of July 2013, none of the six horses resuming that started at $4 or under won.

In the full racing season, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell in Saturday city class that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the full racing season, the best training performance was undoubtedly by Brisbane’s Kelso Wood, as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season was by another Brisbane based trainer, Kelly Schweida, who trained Cape Kidnappers to win on Ipswich Cup day (15/6/13) after 61 weeks off. Next was Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington on 22/12/12 after 59 weeks off. The fourth best effort in the racing season was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who trained a Saturday city winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 32 of 380 first-up horses have won in the full racing season, which means 8.42% have won – and conversely 91.58% have been beaten.

In Sydney 50 of 549 horses resuming to the end of July 2013 have won, which means 9.10% have won – and conversely 90.90% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 51.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 629 that have resumed in the full racing season have won, meaning an abysmal 8.18% have won, or conversely 91.82% have been beaten.

In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as in the 2012/2013 racing season, 18 of the 148.5 winners (12.12%) started at odds-on, so 18 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, no horses resumed at an odds-on quote during July 2013. The shortest priced horse to resume anywhere along the eastern seaboard during July 2013 was Divine City in Brisbane on 20/7/13 and that galloper got rolled at even money in a four-horse field on a heavy track.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” article from last Saturday’s meetings. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on Amanda Turnbull sitting on 187 season winners after last night’s Bathurst meeting as she tries to get to the magical 200 mark before the harness racing season ends at the end of August, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls names future Group 1 winners in the Melbourne Spring Carnival.

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