BACKING OR TIPPING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A MUGS GAME.

BACKING OR TIPPING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A MUGS GAME.

01/08/13

On 30/8/12, I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The 11 previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first 11 months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly articles have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsoever to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what has gone up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-month timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.

Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the July 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States of Australia during that month.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of July 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACE

PRICE

TRAINER

6/7

B-S6

PETA PUMPKINEATER

13

14

$31

Lawlor

 

 

FACE OFF

39

6

$16

Heathcote

 

 

STYLE

28

7

$4.60

Allard

 

 

SHAFEEQ

17

4

$18

Forster

 

S-S7

KIROV

16

4

$15

Martin

 

 

REMOS

14

6

$151

Graham

 

 

PRAECIDO

20

9

$17

Payne

 

 

KENNY’S WORLD

60

8

$61

G. Murray

 

 

MY DESTINY

77

3

$14

Berry

 

 

WHITLAM

18

5

$3.30

Lees

 

 

FLYING EXPRESS

60

14

$21

Pride

 

 

SUSSURO

22

8

$26

Messara

 

 

GENERAL’S SNIPER

19

10

$61

Bartley

 

M-G3

CHASSE

21

6

$26

Snowden

13/7

B-S6

ALL THAT

27

3

$7.50

Stevens

 

 

NOISY OCEAN

21

6

$21

Guy

 

 

REGULAR

17

2

$13

Guy

 

 

CALIENTE

26

9

$11

Hill

 

 

FUSIL DE EVE

18

15

$41

McLachlan

 

 

SNOWTOP

14

8

$61

Meagher

 

S-S6

MISS TWIN PEAKS

14

7

$18

Baker

 

 

SNITZEL’S JEWEL

21

1

$8.50

Ryan

 

 

BUTTONS

25

9

$6.50

Messara

 

 

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

22

8

$19

Nickson

 

 

ABITOFADO

62

13

$201

Gentle

 

 

MAGIC WEEKEND

20

9

$41

Hawkes

 

 

ALLABOUT GLORY

41

12

$17

Austin

 

M-D5

REGIMENTAL PRIDE

17

5

$20

Brown

 

 

CHANGE OF HONOUR

26

10

$11

Price

 

 

MOUNT ZERO

17

6

$7.50

Hayes

 

 

KUKLA

30

9

$7

Moody

 

 

SENSATIONAL REPORT

19

7

$41

Wynne

 

 

STANZOUT

32

4

$91

Davies

 

 

HAPPY GALAXY

22

6

$3.70

Hawkes

 

 

MRS ONASSIS

13

8

$5.50

Ryan

 

 

DRUNKEN POET

19

13

$101

Smerdon

 

 

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

23

13

$15

Ellerton

20/7

B-H9

BALLYBIT

14

7

$8

Heathcote

 

 

DIVINE CITY

21

2

$2

Taylor

 

 

NOVEMBER GREY

31

9

$31

Brosnan

 

 

GREY ASSIGNMENT

35

6

$15

Wood

 

 

CRAIGLEA FALCON

13

2

$17

Fleming

 

S-S6

WARCRUSHER

23

8

$21

Baker

 

 

MACDOOM

18

7

$151

McGregor

 

 

SEGUE

17

9

$16

Snowden

 

 

TURNLEY

17

3

$6.50

C. Conners

 

 

SAILOR’S FAREWELL

20

7

$51

Berry

 

 

KIM WARRIOR

56

9

$51

B. Cummings

 

 

SAN ZIAM

16

5

$51

Bartley

 

 

WASZ

56

6

$10

Waller

 

 

ATOMIC FORCE

14

8

$15

Smith

 

 

CHOICE WORDS

16

10

$4.40

Vandyke

 

M-H8

SINHALA

13

6

$16

Laing

 

 

YULEBA

15

13

$18

Cox

 

 

DAYLIGHT SECOND

69

5

$7.50

Carey

 

 

CANNES DESTINATION

24

10

$9.50

Gower

 

 

SARI

18

5

$3

Snowden

 

 

APPOINT

12

8

$26

Hasan

 

 

CHEVIOT BEACH

39

11

$61

Blackiston

 

 

CANALI

14

6

$13

Brown

27/7

B-D5

TERONADO

23

6

$19

Hill

 

 

VOODOO BLUE MAGIC

17

1

$8.50

Ross

 

 

BILLY AUCASH

38

5

$26

B. Smith

 

 

MUKADDAMAH SON

12

3

$7

Duncan

 

 

REILLY BLUE

34

11

$41

Clarke

 

 

QFIGHTER

12

8

$17

Dunn

 

 

SPECIAL LIE

19

3

$21

Lakey

 

S-S6

WINDSWEPT

54

5

$3.90

Ryan

 

 

TOTAL ATTRACTION

19

3

$3.30

Vandyke

 

 

HAVANA REY

15

11

$10

Baker

 

 

SAINTHOOD

34

4

$31

Worthington

 

 

MARDEN

19

3

$41

Waller

 

 

PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT

24

4

$71

McInerney

 

M-D5

LADYS ANGEL

15

5

$13

O’Brien

 

 

MISS BINDI

13

7

$31

Alderson

 

 

SHE GOES TO RIO

38

10

$14

Weir

 

 

JIGGLE IT

19

8

$41

Roberts

 

 

LAUNAY

17

3

$6

Snowden

 

During July 2013 another 78 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 78 horses only 2 (2.56%) won, meaning that in the 12 months of the 2012/2013 racing season, a total of 1609 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1609 horses only 148.5 have won, which means just 9.22% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the full racing season from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2013 – meaning conversely an amazing 90.78% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1609 and they’d get back just $1098.21, so they’d lose 31.75% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16). In May 2013 a 60/1 winner – Primitive Man in Melbourne on 11/5/13 – gave the figures a big boost. Neither of the two winners in July 2013 was a roughie.

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 130 horses in that category in the full racing season, so a punter would obviously outlay $130 and the return would have been $112.01, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 13.84%. In the month of July 2013, none of the six horses resuming that started at $4 or under won.

In the full racing season, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell in Saturday city class that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the full racing season, the best training performance was undoubtedly by Brisbane’s Kelso Wood, as he trained Benny’s Buttons to win on 11/5/13 after 97 weeks off. The next best effort in the racing season was by another Brisbane based trainer, Kelly Schweida, who trained Cape Kidnappers to win on Ipswich Cup day (15/6/13) after 61 weeks off. Next was Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington on 22/12/12 after 59 weeks off. The fourth best effort in the racing season was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who trained a Saturday city winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 32 of 380 first-up horses have won in the full racing season, which means 8.42% have won – and conversely 91.58% have been beaten.

In Sydney 50 of 549 horses resuming to the end of July 2013 have won, which means 9.10% have won – and conversely 90.90% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 51.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 629 that have resumed in the full racing season have won, meaning an abysmal 8.18% have won, or conversely 91.82% have been beaten.

In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the 2012/2013 racing season, the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as in the 2012/2013 racing season, 18 of the 148.5 winners (12.12%) started at odds-on, so 18 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, no horses resumed at an odds-on quote during July 2013. The shortest priced horse to resume anywhere along the eastern seaboard during July 2013 was Divine City in Brisbane on 20/7/13 and that galloper got rolled at even money in a four-horse field on a heavy track.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” article from last Saturday’s meetings. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on Amanda Turnbull sitting on 187 season winners after last night’s Bathurst meeting as she tries to get to the magical 200 mark before the harness racing season ends at the end of August, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls names future Group 1 winners in the Melbourne Spring Carnival.