BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 7

BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 7

08/08/13

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.

To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.

Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

The six previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first six calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.

Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of July 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

SINCE WON

PLACE

PRICE

TRAINER

6/7

B-S6

FACE OFF

18

6

$16

Heathcote

 

 

RUN WITH ME

14

9

$17

Whittington

 

 

CARN

13

11

$101

Johnson

 

 

PEPPERED BLACK

13

8

$26

L. May/Smith

 

 

BAQABA

36

7

$61

Tregea

 

 

DOUBLE IMPACT

16

4

$10

Crompton

 

 

DALZAR

29

FTF

$26

Duryea

 

 

MUIRFIELD

15

4

$6

Moroney

 

 

GRIFFON

12

2

$7.50

Heathcote

 

 

METALLURGICAL

14

6

$17

Thompson

 

 

DOUBTFUL JACK

21

8

$31

Schweida

 

 

DANSAL

16

1

$21

Wilson

 

S-S7

ILLO

37

2

$8.50

Waller

 

 

CARRICK

20

9

$21

Williams

 

 

WINNING GLORY

12

3

$8.50

Payne

 

 

EURYALE

12

7

$13

Snowden

 

 

SCOTTISH BORDER

16

5

$8

Frazer

 

 

SLICK SNIPER

16

6

$91

Bartley

 

 

BAG OF NICKELS

18

12

$16

Robinson

 

 

THEBIGIAM

13

6

$21

Curtis

 

 

MIC MAC

46

1

$16

Messara

 

 

PRETTY PINS

18

5

$7

Thompson

 

 

PRAECIDO

16

9

$17

Payne

 

 

GLIDING

20

7

$12

B. Cummings

 

 

EIGELSTEIN

21

1

$2.60

Waller

 

 

ACAPELA

17

8

$10

Waller

 

 

HAPPY HUSSY

18

2

$8

Vandyke

 

 

KENNY’S WORLD

33

8

$61

G. Murray

 

 

MY DESTINY

18

3

$14

Berry

 

 

ZARATONE

15

2

$5

B. Baker

 

 

MASTER HARRY

28

1

$21

Quinton

 

 

LIVEANDLETDIE

16

9

$31

B. Baker

 

 

CAPITAL COMMANDER

17

12

$13

Olive

 

 

FLYING EMPRESS

19

14

$21

Pride

 

 

SUSSURO

12

8

$26

Messara

 

 

OAKFIELD COMET

17

7

$14

D. Smith

 

 

SINGLE STYLE

14

1

$4.20

Portelli

 

M-G3

UPBEAT

16

9

$3.80

A. Cummings

 

 

GAIL

12

7

$7

Griffiths

 

 

MIDNIGHT GLORY

23

2

$9

Weir

 

 

SEA SKYE

12

3

$51

Laming

 

 

KEL’S MAGIC

20

10

$101

Gould

 

 

EDGEWOOD

14

2

$5

Griffiths

 

 

UNDER THE LEAVER

12

10

$26

Vasil

 

 

CHASSE

14

6

$26

Snowden

 

 

PERTURBO

23

9

$12

Alderson

 

 

SHELLSCRAPE

38

10

$26

Burke

 

 

DASH FOR VIZ

20

4

$10

Griffiths

 

 

LIVIGNO

15

2

$31

Fliedner

 

 

MAGNIFIQUE SOLEIL

13

1

$5

Weir

 

 

ROCKPECKER

16

7

$31

Fythe

 

 

TESTASCANA

22

12

$26

Cerchi

 

 

HOLLOWLEA

33

10

$20

O’Sullivan

 

 

UNDER THE HAT

16

8

$6.50

Sadler

 

 

SAHARA SUN

30

7

$18

Maher

 

 

HINDU’S GIRL

19

8

$151

Horobin

 

 

INNOCENT LADY

15

3

$21

Laming

 

 

SPOT ON MAGGIE

16

10

$8

Carey

13/7

B-S6

AZZALAND

26

5

$6

Stephenson

 

 

HUCKELBERRY DANE

33

4

$21

Birchley

 

 

COMAHNI

14

8

$5.50

Wilson

 

 

NEXT THE UNIVERSE

24

1

$12

Lees

 

 

TUSKEGEE HAWK

12

1

$17

Treloar

 

 

CLANGOR

12

2

$6.50

Smith

 

 

MR ORIENT

13

2

$11

Balzen

 

 

SPATHA

20

8

$26

Brosnan

 

 

IT’S WUNDERBAR

19

11

$101

mead

 

 

FIREBOLT

12

13

$14

Wood

 

 

GREEN BIRDIE

37

11

$41

Duryea

 

 

LISTEN SON

19

12

$16

T. Gollan

 

 

JETSET LAD

16

7

$14

Wheeler

 

 

MYSTICAL GREY

16

8

$31

Stott

 

 

SPECHENKA

12

9

$81

Ahrens

 

 

BOOGIE SHOES

21

3

$31

Sargent

 

 

FUSIL DE EVE

12

15

$41

McLachlan

 

S-S6

ACAPELA

17

3

$7

Waller

 

 

SARAMENHA

32

8

$26

M. Conners

 

 

SWEET LITTLE LIES

18

6

$12

Waller

 

 

GIVE MY REGARDS

14

5

$4.20

Waterhouse

 

 

WILD AND PROUD

16

3

$12

Pfieffer

 

 

CHARING CROSS

13

1

$6

Waterhouse

 

 

MR ARMSTRONG

17

7

$7.50

Thompson

 

 

VIKING LEGEND

45

6

$18

Simpson

 

 

SACRED FLYER

16

2

$4.60

Waller

 

 

BEREFT

23

9

$6

Atkins

 

 

MARTINVAST

13

5

$7

Ryan

 

 

MOTSPUR

13

11

$51

Lees

 

 

ABITOFADO

20

13

$201

Gentle

 

 

McCLINTOCK

44

10

$51

De Montfort

 

 

ALLABOUT GLORY

21

12

$17

Austin

 

M-D5

JOHANNAPINE

17

11

$7

Webb

 

 

SENSATIONAL REPORT

15

7

$41

Wynne

 

 

TWO HILLS

30

12

$31

Browell

 

 

SLEWSAY

15

13

$101

Laing

 

 

UNDERESTIMATION

14

5

$15

Lawson

 

 

FUMING

13

11

$51

Mathrick

 

 

MONTGOMERY

13

9

$26

Alderson

 

 

ULUNDI

18

13

$21

Eden

 

 

DARK NOTE

24

14

$61

Houlahan

 

 

PALASPORT

13

8

$16

Hickman

 

 

MIDNIGHT GLORY

23

3

$5.50

Weir

 

 

BUDAI

34

11

$26

Hayes

 

 

TANAH LOT

16

12

$10

Little

 

 

FABRIANO

13

2

$15

Donnelly

 

 

STANZOUT

34

4

$91

Davies

 

 

ZAMORAR

13

9

$5

Bourne

 

 

HAUSSMANN

14

6

$17

Snowden

 

 

MR GRISWOLD

23

12

$21

Ellerton

 

 

LORD PYRUS

17

11

$26

Mawer

 

 

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

19

13

$15

Ellerton

 

 

OFFENDERS

28

1

$7.50

Snowden

 

 

CELLARMASTER

13

5

$19

Payne

 

 

CORVIDAE

20

8

$7

Weir

 

 

ALPHA PROXIMA

13

3

$11

Corstens

 

 

CORNWALL PARK

37

14

$21

Weir

 

 

SOPHROSYNE

25

9

$15

McLean

 

 

RED TYPHOON

14

10

$51

Smerdon

20/7

B-H9

DOUBLE IMPACT

17

1

$5

Crompton

 

 

DIVINE CITY

12

2

$2

 Taylor

 

 

DUKE HOUSE

38

3

$15

Bremser

 

 

FANCIFUL

22

3

$13

O’Dea

 

 

EXPLORE THE WORLD

15

2

$19

Walker

 

 

METALLURGICAL

14

7

$9

Thompson

 

 

DOUBTFUL JACK

21

5

$9

Schweida

 

S-S6

FALZZON

14

5

$31

Schmetzer

 

 

PRAECIDO

16

10

$31

Payne

 

 

BEREFT

23

7

$15

Atkins

 

 

KIM WARRIOR

14

9

$51

B. Cummings

 

 

FLYING EMPRESS

19

10

$41

Pride

 

 

GLIDING

21

7

$13

B. Cummings

 

 

OAKFIELD COMET

17

8

$15

D. Smith

 

 

BERRIMILLA

12

1

$9

Waller

 

 

STAR OF OCTAGONAL

14

7

$41

Howlett

 

 

WAZN

17

6

$10

Waller

 

 

PRETTY PINS

19

5

$12

Thompson

 

 

ILLO

24

4

$8

Waller

 

 

WILD AND PROUD

16

8

$41

Pfieffer

 

 

WINNING GLORY

13

2

$13

Payne

 

 

SACRED FLYER

17

1

$3.50

Waller

 

 

EURYALE

12

11

$18

Snowden

 

 

VIKING LEGEND

45

7

$31

Simpson

 

 

SCOTTISH BORDER

29

12

$15

Frazer

 

 

ATOMIC FORCE

18

8

$15

D. Smith

 

 

NEWS ALERT

19

2

$16

Moses

 

 

KENNY’S WORLD

34

11

$41

Murray

 

 

ZARATONE

15

1

$8.50

B. Baker

 

M-H9

EDGEWOOD

15

6

$8

Griffiths

 

 

CHASSE

14

3

$17

Snowden

 

 

UNDER THE HAT

17

7

$9

Sadler

 

 

NOBLE PARK

15

10

$18

Moroney

 

 

CHEVIOT BEACH

17

11

$61

Blackiston

 

 

LONDON STRIPE

38

8

$31

Carey

 

 

EXCEPTIONALLY

12

11

$12

O’Sullivan

 

 

SEA GALLEON

19

9

$15

Alderson

 

 

HANKS

16

14

$31

Moody

 

 

DARK NOTE

25

13

$41

Houlahan

 

 

SUPREMACY

21

7

$31

Cameron

 

 

TANAH LOT

16

10

$26

Little

 

 

FABRIANO

13

2

$15

Donnelly

 

 

CANALI

19

6

$13

S. Brown

 

 

WEEKEND SPECIAL

19

1

$21

Petch

 

 

ELIZA BLUES

15

5

$8

Waller

27/7

B-D5

RACE OFF

19

6

$15

Heathcote

 

 

RAEBURN

31

4

$15

Smith

 

 

MALING

19

2

$61

Lawlor

 

 

MUSASHI OF MIEKO

13

13

$61

Kemp

 

 

REILLY BLUE

19

11

$41

Clarke

 

 

CLANGOR

12

15

$6

Smith

 

 

PEPPERED BLACK

14

7

$26

May/Smith

 

 

CARN

13

1

$61

Johnson

 

 

SIR STANLEY

14

5

$21

Baldwin

 

 

ROCKSAN

16

8

$9

Edmonds

 

 

LADY COLOURS

18

6

$9.50

Hill

 

 

FUSIL DE EVE

12

12

$101

McLachlan

 

S-S6

DAZZLER

14

6

$10

Snowden

 

 

WINDSWEPT

13

5

$3.90

Ryan

 

 

TOTAL ATTRACTION

18

3

$3.30

Vandyke

 

 

LADY LA DOUCE

17

6

$31

Croft

 

 

GRIFFON

13

3

$11

Heathcote

 

 

MY DESTINY

19

6

$10

Berry

 

 

SAINTHOOD

38

4

$31

Worthington

 

 

SOLEDAD

12

8

$6.50

Snowden

 

 

YULALONA

19

3

$8.50

Snowden

 

 

SCOTTISH BORDER

29

4

$21

Frazer

 

 

BAG OF NICKELS

19

10

$101

Robinson

 

 

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

12

13

$16

Nickson

 

 

CELTIC FANTASY

19

16

$71

C. Ritchie

 

 

HAPPY HUSSY

18

6

$10

Vandyke

 

 

McCLINTOCK

45

12

$81

De Montfort

 

 

AUSTRALIAN STAR

12

11

$15

McNair

 

M-D5

UPBEAT

17

7

$11

A. Cummings

 

 

LETHAL ARROW

12

8

$8.50

McLean

 

 

MIDNIGHT GLORY

24

1

$6.50

Weir

 

 

PALASPORT

14

10

$26

Hickman

 

 

RED TYPHOON

14

6

$31

Smerdon

 

 

KOLONGA

15

6

$26

Ellerton

 

 

LADYS ANGEL

15

5

$13

O’Brien

 

 

SHE GOES TO RIO

16

10

$14

Weir

 

 

SENSATIONAL REPORT

15

11

$101

Wynne

 

 

STANZOUT

35

11

$51

Davies

 

 

ZAMORAR

14

4

$8

Bourne

 

 

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

20

11

$31

Ellerton

 

 

MR GRISWOLD

23

7

$31

Ellerton

 

 

LORD PYRUS

17

14

$31

Mawer

 

 

ROCKPECKER

16

9

$21

Fythe

 

 

TESTASCANA

23

10

$16

Cerchi

 

 

LOOKLOOK

19

13

$101

C. McDonald

 

So after the first six calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 207 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during July 2013. Of those 207 horses only 17 or 8.21% won. The 17 that won in this month’s surveyed horses include some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf. Check out the names of some of these horses and there are sure some “chaffbandits and oxygen thieves” among this group. In date order the 17 were: Dansal, Mic Mac, Eigelstein, Master Harry, Single Style, Magnifique Soleil, Next The Universe, Tuskegee Hawk, Charing Cross, Offenders, Double Impact, Berrimilla, Sacred Flyer, Zaratone, Weekend Special, Carn and Midnight Glory. Mic Mac hadn’t won for a whopping 46 months. As such he has the dubious distinction of being able to win a Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne with the longest timeframe between wins. When his mother was phoned by Justracing to be advised he’d finally won another race, sadly she wasn’t speaking too highly of her son. “Look he wasn’t a bad kid when he was young. In fact I thought he was going to be a good horse. I taught him how to gallop around a paddock and to stay safe, you know, not going through barbed wire fences and all that, but geez he disappointed me and my family greatly in later life. He’s been around more times than the Ferris Wheel at the Sydney Easter Show and he just couldn’t win another one. In a way I’m glad he won another race, but I feel sad for you because I fancy you bagged the bejesus out of him on your website the night before he won. I can’t blame you for that as I’m his mother and I’d even given up on him. Realistically after 46 months away from the winners list you should be able to bag him. I never backed him either the day he won, but sadly if I’d had a few lousy dollars on him it would have bought me a new rug for winter. I’m freezing my (next word withheld – not a nice word to use on such a revered family website) off in this cold joint, but no one cares about us old sheilas. They all think we are past our use by date. If only they knew.” (That’s a truly heart wrenching story and Justracing will consider sending the poor old dear a new rug, or possibly a boyfriend to keep her warm. Problem is when they get to that age and stage they are understandably a bit standoffish about males.)

If a punter had $1 a win on the 207 “long term losers” that raced in July they’d obviously outlay $207 and the return including their $1 stake back was amazingly $226.80, so a punter would get 109.56% of their outlay back meaning they’d win 9.56% of their stake. A lot of real “rougher than sandpaper” horses won during July 2013 to make that profit situation. Darlings of the turf like Carn (60/1), rip snorters like 20/1 hopes Dansal and Master Harry all saluted during July. Grown men were seen openly weeping after these three little gems won – prompting Justracing to ask the federal government to fund a counsellor at all thoroughbred race meetings, just to try to help out these punters who seemingly see no other way out after a horse like Carn wins. They shouldn’t be forced to leap to their death. They should have options.

So in the six months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1241 “long term losers” have run and of the 1241, only 71 have won, which means 5.72% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.28% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

Across the six months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see 1241 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March, 154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June and 207 in July) and the return including their $1 stake would be $730.20 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June and $226.80 in July, meaning a punter would get back 58.83% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 41.17% of their stake.

In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story about the only Zabeel mare that has had a runner by Lyndhurst stallion Hidden Dragon, producing the Melbourne middle distance winner from last Saturday – Stable Star. Imagine if that horse had any issues happening in his head he’d have to cop a possible name change to Unstable Star. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the popular “What’s In A Name” segment from last Saturday’s races along the eastern seaboard, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Mount Isa meeting today.