BACKING THOROUGHBRED SATURDAY CITY SHORTENERS IS A MUGS GAME

BACKING THOROUGHBRED SATURDAY CITY SHORTENERS IS A MUGS GAME

21/08/13

So yesterday on Part 1 of this story I gave the average punter 11 tips on how to improve the chances of them winning over any period of time that you’d care to name.

Today I continue on with another food for thought idea that rarely get a mention anywhere.

12. Don’t follow money on a racecourse, as in modern day racing, shorteners generally only help swell the bookies bag, or TAB coffers, to bulging point. So it’s not ancient history, here are the results of the last two Saturday eastern seaboard metropolitan meetings. I’m sure the figures will shock most punters who have probably been raised on the old adage to “follow money on a racecourse”.

Over 40 years ago when I was a teenager going to the races, my late grandmother would tell me to “watch what the Chinese back, they know what they are doing” and I fancy they did. Nowadays the Chinese aren’t at the races and it seems following horses shortening in the market is simply a mugs game. It seems to me from my research that following money on a racecourse nowadays is akin to “the blind leading the blind, helped by the unwilling and assisted by the unknowing.” Most Saturday city winners either 1) blow in the market, or 2) remain steady in betting from their opening price to their starting price. Very few winners on a typical Saturday eastern seaboard race meeting, spanning cumulatively 24 or 25 races, actually firm in betting. On that same point, on Saturday 10 August, across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, some 25 races were run. Only three of the 25 winners (12%) firmed up from their opening quote and they were Flying Home ($2.10 to $1.90), Hollywood Bound ($10 to $8) and Angelic Lass ($16-$11). Firmers on the day that all got rolled were in Brisbane – Adebisi, Falino, All That, Aldini, Billy Aucash, Sir Lotti, Canisbay, Sept De Coeurs, Rock Home Late, Garozzo, Za Magic, Extreme Mover, Avaladyluck, Don’t Get Me Rong, Dream’N’Ignite, Elusive Storm, Danyme and Sir Knox. In Sydney those that firmed that didn’t win on that same day were Electric Power, Price War, Pinball Dawn, Martinvast, Next The Universe, Mount Nebo, Northern Glory, The Great Snowman, Bugaboo, Reunite, Happy Hussy. In Melbourne the following horses all firmed from their opening quote – Saralago, Minh Khai, Hotham Heights, Columbus, Prettyhappyaboutit, Run Diego, Star Lani, Bel Thor, Bellissimo, Ladys Angel, Keep Cool, Falcent, Sea Skye, St Mark, Fantastic Porscha and Miss Middleton.

So to summarise the results and official fluctuations from 10/8/13 Saturday eastern seaboard meetings, three horses that shortened in the market from their opening quote won, but interestingly an incredible 45 horses firmed (Brisbane 18, Sydney 11 and Melbourne 16) – that didn’t win. As 48 horses (45 + 3) firmed in total, and just three won, that meant just 6.25% of horses won, or alternatively that 93.75% of firmers didn’t win. What a horrible statistic.

Last Saturday 17/8/13 there were 24 races cumulatively across the three eastern seaboard States. On the day, seven winners (29.16%) remained steady from their opening quote to their SP (Grey Assignment, Tornado Miss, Cuddlesome, Tom’s Luck, Heart of Many, Va Pensiero and Hanks), 10 winners on the day (41.66%) eased – (Mishani Warrior, Aussies Love Sport, Blurred Vision, Photon Willie, Velrosso, Winning Glory, Safeguard, Kiss A Rose, Puissance De Lune and Octavia) and seven winners (26.16%) firmed (Escoffier, The Storeman, Honorius, Lilliburlero, Text’n Hurley, Pakal and Thy).

In Brisbane last Saturday firmers on the day that all got rolled were Secret Harmony, Panya, Spechenka, Handsome, Writer, Gotta Be Lucky, Jacquetta, Style Music, Shazzle Pazzle, Volkhere, Knockabout, Big Decision, Square Up, Jack’s Back, Manicero, Substation and Persian Storm.

In Sydney the following market shorteners all got rolled – Lunayir, Studio, Lady Krovanh, Gliding, Burbero, Magic Weekend, Marden and Punch Your Weight.

In Melbourne these horses firmed but didn’t win – Bit of Hell, Bells of Troy, Il Cavallo, Se Sauver, Montsegur, High Esteem, Dany The Fox, Lord Durante, Sea Lord, Oasis Bloom and Jolie Blonde.

So in summary from the 17/8/13 meetings across the three eastern seaboard States, seven horses that firmed in the market won and a further 36 horses (named above) that firmed in the market didn’t win. So 43 horses (7 winners + 36 non-winners) firmed in total and seven won, which meant that just 16.27% of firmers won, so conversely 83.73% of horses that firmed in the market didn’t win.

If we combine this review of the last two Saturday’s eastern seaboard races I can make the following factual statements:

1) 49 races were run cumulatively across both days.

2) 10 horses that won across those 49 races – or 20.40% – were firmers. So conversely 79.60% of the races were won by horses that remained steady in betting from their opening quote to their SP or they eased in betting.

3) A total of 91 horses firmed across the two Saturdays and as noted in 2) just 10 won, meaning only 10.98% of firmers won, so conversely 89.02% of firmers didn’t win.

4) Whilst two Saturdays may not be a big enough cross-section of meetings to make too many conclusions, it’s not rocket science to deduce the fact that in Saturday city thoroughbred racing across the eastern seaboard the vast majority of winners either ease in betting or remain steady.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Doomben racing last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story about stallions Ready’s Image and Equiano, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at Victorian racing and Guelphs’ barrier trial win yesterday in Sydney.