BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 8

BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 8

03/10/13

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.

To have any remote chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.

Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

The seven previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first seven calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.

Today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of August 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WON

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

3/8

B-G3

JUNGLE HEAT

37

1

$12

Smith

 

 

SPINHRO

13

4

$5

Stephens

 

 

HUCKLEBERRY DANE

34

8

$26

Birchley

 

 

TOPPING

12

7

$3.20

T. Gollan

 

 

RAEBURN

31

2

$4.20

Smith

 

 

KISS ME DEADLY

15

8

$21

Lipp

 

 

WARRIOR WITHIN

22

11

$101

Hill

 

 

DIAGO

15

10

$26

Pratt

 

 

LA TIKKA ROSA

12

7

$8.50

Dunn

 

 

ESSINGTON

24

8

$5

Hansen

 

 

METALLURGICAL

15

6

$10

Thompson

 

 

BAQABA

37

11

$71

Tregea

 

 

CHIPP’N AWAY

15

9

$31

Edmonds

 

S-G3

DEE’N’GEE

15

3

$9

C.  Connors

 

 

ALTIUS

23

4

$19

Waller

 

 

FALZZON

14

5

$15

Schmetzer

 

 

BRAYROAN

24

11

$61

Ruttley

 

 

HARMONIC

13

1

$19

McEvoy

 

 

LADY LA DOUCE

17

1

$7

Croft

 

 

SWEET LITTLE LIES

18

6

$10

Waller

 

 

IRONSTEIN

21

9

$51

Ryan

 

 

WAZN

18

10

$10

Waller

 

 

WINNING GLORY

13

8

$8

Payne

 

 

EURYALE

13

3

$17

Snowden

 

 

VIKING LEGEND

46

6

$31

Simpson

 

 

PRAECIDO

17

5

$21

Payne

 

 

FILL THE PAGE

16

11

$61

Vandyke

 

 

GLIDING

21

12

$20

B. Cummings

 

 

ACAPELA

18

6

$7.50

Waller

 

 

OAKFIELDCOMET

18

13

$21

D. Smith

 

 

TENBY LADY

23

4

$21

W/house

 

M-D5

EXCEPTIONALLY

12

6

$12

O’Sullivan

 

 

SEA GALLEON

19

4

$9

Alderson

 

 

DARLIMURLA STAR

12

5

$4.80

Kent

 

 

WILLING JOURNEY

28

8

$201

Symons

 

 

ELIZA BLUES

16

3

$7.50

Waller

 

 

REUBEN PERCIVAL

14

5

$4.40

W/house

 

 

BRIGHT HORIZON

34

10

$101

Hutch/son

 

 

LYONELL

12

8

$31

Mallinson

 

 

ALPHA PROXIMA

13

1

$10

Corstens

 

 

NOBLE PARK

15

7

$12

Moroney

 

 

CANALI

20

8

$6.50

S. Brown

 

 

OSVALDO

12

9

$71

McCarthy

 

 

WHATANEXCUSE

20

5

$17

Short

 

 

CORVIDAE

21

10

$17

Weir

 

 

SIR FERNANDO

16

4

$9

Price

 

 

SIGNOR SOCKS

16

12

$101

Goodrich

10/8

B-G3

FALINO

22

4

$8.50

Bell

 

 

CLANGER

12

12

$31

Smith

 

 

CROSS THE STAR

12

6

$61

Andrew

 

 

MALING

19

7

$8.50

Lawlor

 

 

DANEOMITE

14

9

$21

Harden

 

 

NOOGOORA BURR

19

6

$17

Lawlor

 

 

THE CRANBERRIES

16

12

$101

Schmidt

 

 

SPECHENKA

13

7

$71

Ahrens

 

 

ZA MAGIC

15

8

$31

Smith

 

 

DIVINE CITY

13

1

$9

Taylor

 

 

MISS ORIELLE

12

10

$21

Dawson

 

 

LADY COLOURS

18

5

$9

Hill

 

 

FOMAL PRINCESS

41

11

$201

Cot/poulos

 

S-S6

MARTINVAST

14

5

$6.50

Ryan

 

 

THEBIGIAM

14

6

$21

Curtis

 

 

CAPITAL COMMANDER

18

3

$15

Olive

 

 

HIDDEN KISSES

12

1

$5

Waller

 

 

BUTT I’M READY

12

6

$26

G. Portelli

 

 

RAIN AFFAIR

16

1

$1.30

Pride

 

 

ATOMIC FORCE

20

6

$31

D. Smith

 

 

TITLE

16

3

$20

Pride

 

 

MY DESTINY

19

4

$18

Berry

 

 

PRETTY PINS

19

1

$7

Thompson

 

 

VIKING LEGEND

46

11

$31

Simpson

 

 

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

12

7

$31

Nickson

 

 

HENDRICUS

12

5

$6

O’Shea

 

 

HAPPY HUSSY

19

9

$12

Vandyke

 

M-S6

DEHERE HUNTER

12

6

$15

Harris

 

 

DONOVANS

14

15

$61

Eden

 

 

INNOCENT LADY

16

3

$10

Laming

 

 

RED TYPHOON

14

15

$8.50

Smerdon

 

 

ELIZA BLUES

16

8

$6.50

Waller

 

 

MISS MATTY

13

5

$21

Kent

 

 

HOTHAM HEIGHTS

13

5

$21

Oliver

 

 

GOSSIP GIRL

13

6

$20

Mason

 

 

ROMAN TREASURE

13

11

$12

Moody

 

 

COLUMBUS

24

7

$15

Hayes

 

 

STAR LANI

12

12

$7

Oliver

 

 

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

21

6

$31

Ellerton

 

 

WHY NOT

12

8

$16

Hayes

 

 

UNDER THE HAT

17

12

$8.50

Sadler

 

 

BELLISSIMO

15

4

$8

A. Cummings

 

 

HIPHOPOPOTAMUS

28

11

$81

Wilde

 

 

LADYS ANGEL

27

3

$8

O’Brien

 

 

MR GRISWOLD

24

13

$81

Ellerton

 

 

HALO MISS MAHER

12

13

$101

McCarthy

 

 

WROTHAM HEATH

14

12

$15

Hayes

 

 

TEMPLE OF BOOM

15

2

$5.50

T. Gollan

 

 

UPBEAT

17

8

$14

A. Cummings

 

 

SUPREMACY

21

1

$12

Cameron

 

 

SEA SKYE

13

2

$5.50

Laming

 

 

AERONWY

13

6

$21

Moody

 

 

SENSATIONAL REPORT

16

11

$101

Wynne

17/8

B-G3

WARRIOR WITHIN

22

4

$61

Hill

 

 

SPECHENKA

13

3

$15

Ahrens

 

 

RAEBURN

31

4

$4.60

Smith

 

 

FUSIL DE EVE

13

9

$51

McLachlan

 

 

D’JET

12

5

$2.60

Lavin

 

 

BUSH AVIATOR

18

8

$16

T. Gollan

 

 

GOLDEN CASH

30

9

$71

G. Rich/son

 

 

MR ORIENT

14

9

$21

Balzen

 

 

LINE OF CONFLICT

23

13

$101

Heinrich

 

S-G3

POLISH KNIGHT

16

6

$31

Hawkes

 

 

ILLO

25

7

$17

Waller

 

 

I’M IMPOSING

34

8

$21

Waller

 

 

SOLEDAD

13

2

$9

Snowden

 

 

HONORIUS

15

1

$4.80

Payne

 

 

GLIDING

22

12

$9.50

B. Cummings

 

 

TENBY LADY

24

2

$4.20

W/house

 

 

BRAYROAN

24

9

$101

Ruttley

 

 

KENNY’S WORLD

35

10

$61

Murray

 

 

DEE’N’GEE

16

5

$12.90

C. Connors

 

 

SAINTHOOD

39

7

$51

Worth/ton

 

 

ALTIUS

24

4

$9

Waller

 

 

SUSSURO

13

8

$41

Messara

 

 

TOTAL ATTRACTION

18

6

$6.50

Vandyke

 

 

APPLEGATE

21

12

$51

Snowden

 

 

IRONSTEIN

21

12

$51

Ryan

 

 

WAZN

18

14

$31

Waller

 

 

WINNING GLORY

14

1

$17

Payne

 

 

EURYALE

13

3

$15

Snowden

 

 

MUIRFIELD

17

11

$81

Moroney

 

 

PRAECIDO

17

7

$21

Payne

 

M-G3

MAYNEDA STRATEGY

19

7

$61

Pennuto

 

 

BEE’S HONEY

20

8

$61

Blackiston

 

 

CHASSE

15

6

$8

Snowden

 

 

PAKAL

14

1

$5.50

Price

 

 

EXCEPTIONALLY

13

6

$13

O’Sullivan

 

 

HANKS

17

1

$31

Moody

 

 

LUCKY EIGHTY EIGHT

21

10

$10

Ellerton

 

 

NOBLE PARK

16

7

$12

Moroney

 

 

AMAH ROCK

15

7

$7

Morgan

 

 

ZOOMANIA

19

12

$51

Moody

24/8

B-G3

JUST A PICCOLO

19

7

$31

E. Hayes

 

 

NOOGOORA BURR

20

3

$17

Lawlor

 

 

MALING

20

1

$10

Lawlor

 

 

CLANGOR

13

8

$13

B. Smith

 

 

LAMICHI

27

6

$17

Laming

 

 

LISTEN SON

21

1

$6

T. Gollan

 

 

LATIN NEWS

40

FTF

$26

Dais

 

 

METALLURGICAL

16

5

$17

Thompson

 

S-G3

THEBIGIAM

15

5

$101

Curtis

 

 

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

13

7

$18

Nickson

 

 

GANGSTER’S CHOICE

12

3

$10

O’Shea

 

 

ACAPELA

19

1

$4.60

Waller

 

 

SCORPIO QUEEN

15

4

$41

Parker

 

 

METAL BENDER

16

6

$21

Waller

 

 

SNEAK A PEEK

23

11

$101

Moody

 

 

TOM’S ROCKET

23

5

$41

Rowley

 

 

WINDSWEPT

13

1

$3.50

Ryan

 

 

MONTON

20

11

$18

Quinton

 

 

TITLE

17

2

$31

Pride

 

 

WILLY JIMMY

26

13

$151

Walter

 

M-D4

REUBEN PERCIVAL

14

7

$6.50

W/house

 

 

INNOCENT LADY

16

3

$8

Laming

 

 

ROWLAND

12

5

$18

Laing

 

 

BRIGHT HORIZON

34

11

$151

Huchinson

 

 

CANALI

20

8

$41

Brown

 

 

CHOSEN TO FLY

14

2

$21

Alderson

 

 

GOSSIP GIRL

14

7

$9

Mason

 

 

SPOT ON MAGGIE

17

8

$21

Carey

 

 

BARBIE’S BOMBSHELL

12

6

$41

Bonella

 

 

SENSATIONAL REPORT

16

2

$101

Wynne

 

 

THOUGHT WORTHY

12

11

$17

Hickmott

 

 

MASSIYN

13

12

$8.50

Hickmott

 

 

CLEAR FOR ACTION

23

1

$7

Conlan

 

 

LORD PYRUS

30

7

$81

Mawer

 

 

CHEVIOT BEACH

18

8

$41

Blackiston

 

 

DARK NOTE

24

13

$151

Houlahan

 

 

SEA SKYE

13

6

$9

Laming

 

 

RED EYE SPECIAL

23

9

$81

Bourke

 

 

STANZOUT

36

5

$81

Davies

 

 

SHADOWFAX

26

7

$20

Oliver

 

 

HOTHAM HEIGHTS

13

8

$21

Oliver

 

 

HOLLOWLEA

35

12

$31

O’Sullivan

 

 

SIR FERNANDO

17

2

$7.50

Price

 

 

SHE GOES TO RIO

17

9

$26

Weir

31/8

B-G3

KOLONGA

16

6

$21

Nikolic

 

 

D’JET

12

5

$6.50

Lavin

 

 

OUR HUSSEY

12

9

$61

Hill

 

 

KISS ME DEADLY

16

11

$61

Lipp

 

 

SPECHENKA

13

6

$14

Ahrens

 

 

ZA MAGIC

16

2

$19

B. Smith

 

 

RAEBURN

32

4

$9

B. Smith

 

 

WARRIOR WITHIN

22

11

$61

Hill

 

 

FALINO

22

5

$12

Bell

 

S-G3

TENBY LADY

24

3

$4.20

W/house

 

 

I’M IMPOSING

34

3

$61

Waller

 

 

ALTIUS

24

5

$3.80

Waller

 

 

SAINTHOOD

39

7

$31

Worth/ton

 

 

RED TYPHOON

15

11

$41

Dale

 

 

SHENIYAN

26

10

$18

Waugh

 

 

THEBIGIAM

15

8

$31

Curtis

 

 

SINGLE

17

4

$61

Carmody

 

 

DEE’N’GEE

16

3

$12

C. Conners

 

 

BRAVE SOUL

12

4

$4

Pride

 

 

MISS SPOKEN

19

7

$61

G. Portelli

 

 

POLISH KNIGHT

16

8

$26

Hawkes

 

 

MICHELANGELO

14

13

$14

W/house

 

 

IRONSTEIN

21

2

$51

Ryan

 

 

EURYALE

14

4

$21

Snowden

 

M-D4

FIBRILLATION

16

2

$20

Price

 

 

REMEMBA HOWE

15

11

$26

Walker

 

 

ROMAN TREASURE

13

12

$21

Moody

 

 

MOURASANA

22

13

$61

Moroney

 

 

SPOT ON MAGGIE

17

9

$12

Carey

 

 

ZOOMANIA

20

10

$26

Moody

 

 

LUCKY CHAPPY

25

13

$61

Carey

 

 

LIDARI

14

1

$12

Moody

 

 

OSVALDO

13

10

$151

McCarthy

 

 

SOLEDAD

13

7

$15

Snowden

 

 

UNDERESTIMATION

16

8

$17

Lawson

 

 

NEESON

22

5

$7

Hawkes

 

 

SAMAREADY

17

1

$5.50

Price

 

 

YOSEI

26

10

$12

Webb

 

 

ANISE

28

3

$17

Snowden

 

 

ANABAA’S LEGACY

33

7

$101

Binaisse

 

 

VOILA ICI

26

16

$61

Moody

 

 

KESAMPOUR

15

7

$10

Moody

 

 

CHASSE

15

5

$41

Snowden

 

 

ARALDO

12

15

$9

Moroney

 

 

FIORENTE

13

6

$8.50

W/house

 

 

SEVILLE

26

13

$71

Hickmott

 

 

MY QUEST FOR PEACE

12

12

$101

Moody

 

 

ATLANTIC JEWEL

16

1

$2.20

M. Kavanagh

 

So after the first eight calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 232 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during August 2013. Of those 232 horses only 21 or 9.05% won. The 21 that won in this month’s surveyed horses include some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf. Check out the names of some of these horses and there are sure some “chaffbandits and oxygen thieves”. Among this group are horses like: Jungle Heat, Lady La Douce, Alpha Proxima, Pretty Pins, Honorius, Hanks, Maling, Listen Son and Acapela. Jungle Heat hadn’t won for a whopping 37 months before he scored on 3 August, but he failed by nine months to beat Mic Mac, which hadn’t won a Saturday city race for 46 months when he scored during July 2013. As such Mic Mac has the dubious distinction of being able to win a Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney or Melbourne with the longest timeframe between wins.

If a punter had $1 a win on the 232 “long term losers” that raced in August they’d obviously outlay $232 and the return including their $1 stake back was amazingly $191.40, so a punter would get 82.50% of their outlay back meaning they’d lose 17.50% of their stake. Darlings of the turf like Hanks at 30/1 saluted during August prompting blokes like former tennis great John McEnroe to smash his racquet and exclaim at the top of his voice “you cannot be serious”.

So in the eight months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1473 “long term losers” have run and of the 1473, only 92 have won, which means 6.25% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 93.75% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

Across the eight months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1473 outlaid (113 in January, 125 in February, 156 in March, 154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July and $232 in August) and the return including their $1 stake would be $921.60 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July and $191.40 in August, meaning a punter would get back 62.56% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 37.44% of their stake.

In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.

The shortest priced long term loser to get home in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months. You wouldn’t believe the name of the horse that ran second? Yep – website favourite Mic Mac. Let us pray.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story on Brisbane Bloodstock boss Col Richards breeding and part-owning the first 2YO winner of the 2013/2014 racing season. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on Suave Stuey Lombo still going to New Zealand despite a 42-metre thrashing last weekend, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Brad Bishop looks at the Turnbull Stakes.