“THE CLASS FACTOR” IS A CORNERSTONE OF SUCCESSFUL PUNTING

“THE CLASS FACTOR” IS A CORNERSTONE OF SUCCESSFUL PUNTING

17/10/13

You know there is one aspect across the three codes of racing that is always a cornerstone when punting – and that’s “the class factor”.

It’s “the class factor” that allowed champion Black Caviar to win 25 races straight, or the great Queensland pacer Lucky Creed to win 24 races straight, or the wonderful staying greyhound Bold Trease to win four Sandown Cups – and so on and so forth.

When Atlantic Jewel toys with her opposition like she did last Saturday it’s simply “the class factor” on display again for all to see.

So obvious displays of “the class factor” like say Atlantic Jewel last Saturday in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes can be seen on Carnival race days, but what a lot of punters don’t realise is that there can be a class factor apparent in a non-black type race if we go looking for it.

So how do you go looking for “the class factor” in Race 4 at Randwick last Saturday? Well the best way to assess the field that rarely gets a mention anywhere, except here, is by weighing up the “average earnings per starter”. You don’t have to sit down and work out all the relevant mathematics yourself as it’s in every weekend Sportsman. Obviously the better “class “of horse will have the better earnings. Sure you have to be mindful that the thoroughbred incentive schemes like QTIS, BOBS and VOBIS can affect the figure-work, as can prizemoney of one-off sales related races like say a Magic Millions or a Golden Rose, but on an average Saturday of punting like last Saturday it’s an aspect well worth taking into account before parting with your hard earned.

To that end – what I’ve done today for website visitors is I’ve gone back over last Saturday’s eastern seaboard meetings of Doomben, Randwick and Caulfield and extracted the highest three “average prizemoney per start” earners for you that ran in their respective race and you’ll be amazed at the number of winners that simple method produced, without any reference to 1) the horse’s current form, 2) the track rating, 3) the distance of the race, 4) the 50-kilo bundle of joy who had been employed for steering duties, 5) whether there was any “wind bias”, “The inside was off” bias, “the outside was off” bias, the one they never mention which is “tipster bias” when “they” use anything “bias” to cover a bad day of tipping, or one of the other 100 “bias” factors that some of these what I’d call “bias wankers” come up with in modern day thoroughbred racing – and so on and so forth. Christ we’d all join Gamblers Anonymous – and never have another bet – if we believed even half the crap some of them go on with.

Back to the score at the Test and on the day last Saturday cumulatively 26 races were run across the three venues – Doomben (8), Randwick (8) and Caulfield (10).

Obviously 2YO debut runners haven’t started in a race, so they can’t have any “average earnings per start” figure, meaning that ruled out three races – Race 1 at Doomben (won by the oddly named Stroak. Gee come to think of it she is probably a full sister to “bias wankers” above), Race 2 at Randwick (Unencumbered) and Race 1 at Caulfield (Moonlight Hussler).

So taking those three 2YO races from cumulatively 26 obviously leaves us 23 races to peruse.

Here is a list of the highest three “average prizemoney per start” starters in each of those 23 races:

RACE

HORSE

AV P/MONEY PER START

PLACING

BR2

FLYING FUJI

7296

6

 

SPARKLING SOUND

3316

7

 

TAIL AND ALL

3134

3

BR3

DIVINE CITY

11022

2

 

FLYING JET

9752

4

 

VIS A TERGO

8650

1

BR4

MISS IMAGICA

16712

2

 

BLACK CASH

13112

1

 

WHAT ABOUT ME

6746

6

BR5

BODEGA NEGRA

17000

1

 

VOODOO BLUE MAGIC

13820

6

 

TORNADO MISS

9544

5

BR6

QUICK WITTED

9825

4

 

VOLKHERE

7132

8

 

OKANE

5969

1

BR7

FACILE TIGRE

21304

8

 

ROCKET TO GLORY

18145

1

 

EXCELLANTES

15535

6

BR8

SIR LUMINAR

16850

5

 

OAKFIELD COMMANDS

10501

3

 

THE STOREMAN

9056

2

SR1

THUBIAAN

10357

6

 

CANTONESE

9667

8

 

MULTILATERAL

9594

1

SR3

SURGE AHEAD

25137

5

 

EARNEST DESIRE

22716

7

 

CHATEAU LEFAITE

18902

1

SR4

SHELFORD

16919

2

 

IVORY COGNAC

11579

7

 

ANGEL BEE

10210

4

SR5

LANDING

26400

6

 

THAT’S A GOOD IDEA

16422

1

 

CAMEO

12126

4

SR6

CRITERION

55661

2

 

COMPLACENT

37556

1

 

SAVVY NATURE

31830

3

SR7

PROVERB

16958

8

 

CHOICE BRO

16145

5

 

SINGLE

15108

3

SR8

LILLIBURLERO

18288

8

 

QUEENSTOWN

18058

2

 

SHARNEE ROSE

16930

1

MR2

MISSY LONGSTOCKING

54340

1

 

THE HUNTRESS

29475

5

 

ANATINA

24137

2

MR3

MIRACLES OF LIFE

127308

7

 

SAFEGUARD

53862

2

 

ICONIC

51458

6

MR4

KUROSHIO

38300

3

 

PAGO ROCK

17791

2

 

UNPRETENTIOUS

16292

1

MR5

SHAMAL WIND

25944

5

 

YOU’RE SO GOOD

25322

13

 

OUR MISS JONES

21268

12

MR6

ATLANTIC JEWEL

134592

1

 

SUPER COOL

104195

3

 

FORETELLER

37287

2

MR7

BELLO

23704

2

 

EXIMIUS

21478

6

 

STARTSMEUP

18285

9

MR8

SEA MOON

80707

1

 

KESAMPOUR

34520

5

 

TANBY

26253

9

MR9

LINTON

83204

8

 

LUCKYGRAY

79633

16

 

FERLAX

51375

12

MR10

DISSIDENT

50642

4

 

ECLAIR BIG BANG

42212

14

 

LONG JOHN

41058

1

 

So from the aforesaid 23 races, no fewer than 15 individual race winners, or an amazing 65.21% were contained in just those three highest “average prizemoney per start” runners.

 

Additionally the three named highest prizemoney earners ran the trifecta in both the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes (SR6) – as well as the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes. Given there were only four Group 1 races run on the day, amazingly no form study whatsoever was required except knowing the names of the three highest “average prizemoney per start” horses – to land 50% of the Group 1 trifectas on the day.

 

This aforesaid system also provided the Quinella and Exacta in BR3 (Vis A Tergo and Divine City), BR4 (Black Cash and Miss Imagica), SR8 (Sharnee Rose and Queenstown), MR2 (Missy Longstocking and Anatina) and the Trifecta in MR4 of Unpretentious, Pago Rock and Kuroshio.

 

All that serves as proof to understand that the “average prizemoney per start” that each runner in a Saturday metropolitan race has earned, is an accurate pointer to the “class” of the horse. To that end, check out the huge “class” edge that Sea Moon had on his rivals in MR8, as opposed to the rest of the field. He’d averaged $80,707 per start whereas his nearest opposition to him was Kesampour at $34,250. Atlantic Jewel in MR6 is nearly 30% ahead of her nearest rival on average earnings per start. Missy Longstocking ($54,340 per start) had earned nearly double per start what her nearest rival had ($29,475), but that would be partly due to her home State QTIS bonus, albeit each horse racing in any of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria has incentive scheme prizemoney in their State to chase, provided 1) they are paid up for their State’s incentive scheme and 2) the trainer and/or owners wish to partake in such races.

 

“The class factor” is about the most important aspect of punting. It’s funny how cream invariably comes to the top in life and in racing across the three codes.

 

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on the two Queenslanders that are fleeing their home State to race at Menangle Saturday night, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls – who was in terrific tipping form yesterday on Thousand Guineas day – looks at how hard it is to beat the house long term.