BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…….Part 9

BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…….Part 9

13/11/13

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.

To have any chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.

Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

The eight previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first eight calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.

Website stories like this one are running really late going up – due to the Melbourne Spring Carnival obviously taking priority, but today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of September 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” and “good judges” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

MONTHS SINCE WON

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

7/9

B-G3

ESSINGTON

26

4

$15

Hansen

 

 

METALLURGICAL

16

5

$15

Thompson

 

 

JOPA

15

6

$14

Heathcote

 

 

ARADO

12

5

$9

M. Nolan

 

 

GENERAL SHAREEF

15

12

$9

Heinrich

 

S-G3

JUNOOB

18

2

$21

Waller

 

 

ASSERTIVE BILLY

32

12

$15

McEvoy

 

 

PRAECIDO

18

5

$17

Payne

 

 

CODE WORD

26

10

$71

Marzoy

 

 

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

13

9

$61

Nickson

 

 

GANGSTER’S CHOICE

12

1

$7.50

O’Shea

 

 

PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT

12

7

$26

McInerney

 

 

BRAYROAN

25

11

$101

Ruttley

 

 

TOM’S ROCKET

24

8

$31

Rowley

 

 

HAY LIST

17

5

$7.50

McNair

 

 

DECISION TIME

24

1

$7

C. Conners

 

 

SINCERO

12

13

$9.50

Farley

 

 

FAST CLIP

16

14

$51

W/house

 

 

BAYRIR

12

6

$5.50

Waller

 

 

SNEAK A PEEK

23

5

$41

Moody

 

 

ASHOKAN

17

5

$10

W/house

 

 

JADE MARAUDER

17

10

$11

Waller

 

 

GOLDSTONE

15

11

$31

B. Cummings

 

 

DESTRUCTION

14

13

$61

Thompson

 

M-D4

BRIGANTIN

27

7

$13

Carey

 

 

THOUGHT WORTHY

12

9

$11

Hickmott

 

 

WHY NOT

13

4

$41

Hayes

 

 

MUTUAL TRUST

26

8

$21

Prit/Gordon

 

 

RANKED

16

14

$10

Hickmott

 

 

BOLTON

19

13

$151

S. Brown

 

 

MANIGHAR

17

6

$10

Moody

 

 

ETHIOPIA

16

5

$26

Carey

 

 

SEA MOON

14

12

$4

Hickmott

 

 

DECEMBER DRAW

23

10

$15

M. Kavanagh

 

 

MASKED MARVEL

23

14

$61

Hickmott

 

 

WALDPARK

26

8

$26

Freedman

 

 

MOUDRE

34

3

$91

Maher

 

 

TEMPLE OF BOOM

18

2

$12

T. Gollan

 

 

CHOSEN TO FLY

14

17

$21

Alderson

14/9

B-G3

SPENCHENKA

14

10

$21

Ahrens

 

 

ZA MAGIC

17

9

$8.50

B. Smith

 

 

RAEBURN

33

5

$10

B. Smith

 

 

THE SIXTIES

13

5

$16

Green

 

 

RACING HEART

12

5

$10

B. Smith

 

 

ORTHIE’S GEM

26

8

$26

Sylvester

 

 

WHAT ABOUT ME

18

3

$15

Schweida

 

 

LEVIOSA

16

5

$16

Graham

 

 

LADY COLOURS

20

6

$31

Hill

 

S-G3

ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ

14

9

$21

Nickson

 

 

SECOND STRING

16

10

$201

Webber

 

 

BRAYROAN

25

11

$101

Ruttley

 

 

TAMANU PARK

12

10

$61

Ryan

 

 

MILSON

18

9

$41

M. Smith

 

 

MONTON

18

7

$21

Quinton

 

 

SOMEPIN ANYPIN

22

10

$19

W/house

 

 

BRAVE SOUL

12

10

$9

Pride

 

 

POLISH KNIGHT

17

10

$21

Hawkes

 

 

CHASSE

16

FTF

$31

Snowden

 

 

I’M IMPOSING

35

5

$8

Waller

 

 

EURYALE

14

9

$21

Snowden

 

M-G3

ROWLAND

12

8

$10

Laing

 

 

RED EYE SPECIAL

24

10

$51

Bourke

 

 

FIORENTE

14

1

$3.20

W/house

 

 

SEVILLE

35

10

$51

Hickmott

 

 

EXTRA ZERO

17

7

$16

Hayes

 

 

LORD PYRUS

19

13

$101

Mawer

 

 

TEE EMAR

40

14

$101

McLean

 

 

FABRIANO

14

10

$21

Donnelly

 

 

CHEVIOT BEACH

18

12

$19

Blackiston

 

 

UNDERESTIMATION

16

8

$19

Lawson

 

 

REKINDLED INTEREST

24

2

$41

Conlan

 

 

NEESON

23

9

$10

Hawkes

 

 

YOSEI

26

13

$31

Webb

 

 

AMAH ROCK

16

12

$17

Morgan

 

 

RUSAMBO

12

10

$13

Snowden

21/9

B-G3

RAEBURN

32

2

$4.60

B. Smith

 

 

ESSINGTON

26

4

$7.50

Hansen

 

 

ELUSIVE KING

21

4

$17

Kendrick

 

 

CRAIGLEA FALCON

13

7

$17

Fleming

 

 

FALINO

23

6

$4.80

D. Bell

 

 

D’JET

13

5

$4.60

Lavin

 

 

ARADO

13

4

$6

M. Nolan

 

S-D4

SAINTHOOD

40

2

$12

Worth/ton

 

 

CHARLESTON LADY

22

6

$21

Vandyke

 

 

PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT

12

3

$17

McInerney

 

 

DESTRUCTION

15

12

$31

Thompson

 

 

VALDHEZ

25

13

$31

Waugh

 

 

SINCERO

12

8

$41

Farley

 

 

TAGUS

12

10

$51

Thompson

 

 

TITLE

17

9

$12

Pride

 

 

ASHOKAN

18

4

$10

W/house

 

 

MASKED MARVEL

24

3

$20

Hickmott

 

 

BAYRIR

13

8

$6.50

Waller

 

 

SNEAK A PEEK

24

4

$11

Moody

 

 

IRONSTEIN

22

5

$15

Ryan

 

 

HAY LIST

18

11

$10

McNair

 

 

MANAWANUI

22

12

$21

Lemon

 

 

TIGER TEES

12

8

$8

Pride

 

 

SPIRIT OF BOOM

20

3

$8

T. Gollan

 

M-S6

ZOOMANIA

20

8

$16

Moody

 

 

GO THE KNUCKLE

21

10

$10

Smerdon

 

 

CANALI

21

5

$11

Brown

 

 

ANISE

17

2

$9

Snowden

 

 

BOCUSE

19

9

$101

Bourke

 

 

HI BELLE

18

2

$16

Gunning

 

 

OUR MISS JONES

12

8

$12

Kent

 

 

ANABAA’S LEGACY

22

4

$51

Binaisse

 

 

SOLEDAD

14

10

$16

Snowden

 

 

SEVILLE

35

9

$15

Hickmott

 

 

MOUDRE

34

6

$12

Maher

 

 

KESAMPOUR

16

2

$12

Moody

 

 

SAHARA SUN

20

13

$101

Maher

28/9

B-D4

SINISTER PRINCE

19

2

$15

Heinemann

 

 

PLAYACTION

21

6

$61

Cl/Peoples

 

 

JOPA

16

9

$15

Heathcote

 

 

THE SIXTIES

13

3

$31

Green

 

 

METALLURGICAL

17

7

$17

Thompson

 

 

RACING HEART

21

9

$26

B. Smith

 

 

WHAT ABOUT ME

17

3

$8

Schweida

 

 

ORTHIE’S GEM

26

10

$51

Sylvester

 

S-G3

JUNOOB

19

6

$26

Waller

 

 

POLISH KNIGHT

17

4

$10

Hawkes

 

 

I’M IMPOSING

35

2

$5.50

Waller

 

 

MONTON

19

7

$20

Quinton

 

 

SINGLE

18

10

$26

Carmody

 

 

ASHOKAN

18

4

$8.50

W/house

 

 

TROMSO

16

6

$13

Waller

27/9

M-D5

SENSATIONAL REPORT

17

3

$41

Wynne

 

 

UNRULY PRINCESS

20

9

$151

Diplock

 

 

HAWKS BAY

13

11

$51

Dyer

 

 

LORD PYRUS

31

6

$101

Mawer

 

 

HOT SPIN

19

8

$51

Edwards

 

 

OASIS BLOOM

12

5

$6

Morgan

 

 

EXTRA ZERO

18

12

$21

Hayes

 

 

HISTORY NO HURDLE

12

9

$151

Hutc/son

29/9

M-D4

DETOX

16

9

$7

Stephens

 

 

CUBAN SUNDAY

12

11

$26

Carey

 

 

GOLDONI

12

8

$16

Hayes

 

 

FABRIANO

15

3

$17

Donnelly

 

 

UNDERESTIMATION

17

12

$12

Lawson

 

 

RANKED

17

11

$21

Hickmott

 

 

TWILIGHTING

12

7

$20

Ellerton

 

 

SHE GOES TO RIO

18

13

$18

Weir

 

 

CRIMSON LADY

17

5

$31

Moroney

 

 

PASS THE POST

15

12

$31

Scott

 

 

BALUCH

12

10

$7

Moody

 

 

DECEMBER DRAW

23

9

$51

Kavanagh

 

 

TEMPLE OF BOOM

17

8

$21

T. Gollan

 

 

YOSEI

27

12

$51

Webb

 

 

MUTUAL TRUST

14

11

$31

Prit/Gordon

 

So after the first nine calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 150 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during September 2013. Of those 150 horses a pathetic 3 or only 2.00% won. The 3 that won in this month’s surveyed horses included two real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf – Gangster’s Choice and Decision Time. The other one goes okay, good enough in fact to win the Melbourne Cup last week – Fiorente.

If a punter had $1 a win on the 150 “long term losers” that raced in September they’d obviously outlay $150 and the return including their $1 stake back was just $17.70, so a punter would get a deplorable 11.80% of their outlay back, meaning they’d lose 88.20% of their stake.

So in the nine months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1623 “long term losers” have run and of the 1623, only 95 have won, which means 5.85% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.15% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

Across the nine months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1623 outlaid ($113 in January, $125 in February, $156 in March, $154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July, $232 in August and $150 in September) and the return including their $1 stake would be $939.30 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July, $191.40 in August and $17.70 in September), meaning a punter would get back 57.87% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 42.13% of their stake.

In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.

The shortest priced long term loser to get home first in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months. You wouldn’t believe the name of the horse that ran second? Yep – website favourite Mic Mac. Let us pray.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Eagle Farm last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on the passing of an Australian thoroughbred breeding icon at the grand old age of 91, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at Victorian racing.