13/11/13
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what will be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that haven’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses are contesting Saturday city races – is simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy as I’ll prove conclusively in those 12 articles that will go up publicly during this calendar year. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
The eight previous stories that I penned on the subject from the first eight calendar months of this year can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.
Website stories like this one are running really late going up – due to the Melbourne Spring Carnival obviously taking priority, but today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of September 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” and “good judges” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
MONTHS SINCE WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
7/9
B-G3
ESSINGTON
26
4
$15
Hansen
METALLURGICAL
16
5
$15
Thompson
JOPA
15
6
$14
Heathcote
ARADO
12
5
$9
M. Nolan
GENERAL SHAREEF
15
12
$9
Heinrich
S-G3
JUNOOB
18
2
$21
Waller
ASSERTIVE BILLY
32
12
$15
McEvoy
PRAECIDO
18
5
$17
Payne
CODE WORD
26
10
$71
Marzoy
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
13
9
$61
Nickson
GANGSTER’S CHOICE
12
1
$7.50
O’Shea
PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT
12
7
$26
McInerney
BRAYROAN
25
11
$101
Ruttley
TOM’S ROCKET
24
8
$31
Rowley
HAY LIST
17
5
$7.50
McNair
DECISION TIME
24
1
$7
C. Conners
SINCERO
12
13
$9.50
Farley
FAST CLIP
16
14
$51
W/house
BAYRIR
12
6
$5.50
Waller
SNEAK A PEEK
23
5
$41
Moody
ASHOKAN
17
5
$10
W/house
JADE MARAUDER
17
10
$11
Waller
GOLDSTONE
15
11
$31
B. Cummings
DESTRUCTION
14
13
$61
Thompson
M-D4
BRIGANTIN
27
7
$13
Carey
THOUGHT WORTHY
12
9
$11
Hickmott
WHY NOT
13
4
$41
Hayes
MUTUAL TRUST
26
8
$21
Prit/Gordon
RANKED
16
14
$10
Hickmott
BOLTON
19
13
$151
S. Brown
MANIGHAR
17
6
$10
Moody
ETHIOPIA
16
5
$26
Carey
SEA MOON
14
12
$4
Hickmott
DECEMBER DRAW
23
10
$15
M. Kavanagh
MASKED MARVEL
23
14
$61
Hickmott
WALDPARK
26
8
$26
Freedman
MOUDRE
34
3
$91
Maher
TEMPLE OF BOOM
18
2
$12
T. Gollan
CHOSEN TO FLY
14
17
$21
Alderson
14/9
B-G3
SPENCHENKA
14
10
$21
Ahrens
ZA MAGIC
17
9
$8.50
B. Smith
RAEBURN
33
5
$10
B. Smith
THE SIXTIES
13
5
$16
Green
RACING HEART
12
5
$10
B. Smith
ORTHIE’S GEM
26
8
$26
Sylvester
WHAT ABOUT ME
18
3
$15
Schweida
LEVIOSA
16
5
$16
Graham
LADY COLOURS
20
6
$31
Hill
S-G3
ZAKYNTHOS IMPRINTZ
14
9
$21
Nickson
SECOND STRING
16
10
$201
Webber
BRAYROAN
25
11
$101
Ruttley
TAMANU PARK
12
10
$61
Ryan
MILSON
18
9
$41
M. Smith
MONTON
18
7
$21
Quinton
SOMEPIN ANYPIN
22
10
$19
W/house
BRAVE SOUL
12
10
$9
Pride
POLISH KNIGHT
17
10
$21
Hawkes
CHASSE
16
FTF
$31
Snowden
I’M IMPOSING
35
5
$8
Waller
EURYALE
14
9
$21
Snowden
M-G3
ROWLAND
12
8
$10
Laing
RED EYE SPECIAL
24
10
$51
Bourke
FIORENTE
14
1
$3.20
W/house
SEVILLE
35
10
$51
Hickmott
EXTRA ZERO
17
7
$16
Hayes
LORD PYRUS
19
13
$101
Mawer
TEE EMAR
40
14
$101
McLean
FABRIANO
14
10
$21
Donnelly
CHEVIOT BEACH
18
12
$19
Blackiston
UNDERESTIMATION
16
8
$19
Lawson
REKINDLED INTEREST
24
2
$41
Conlan
NEESON
23
9
$10
Hawkes
YOSEI
26
13
$31
Webb
AMAH ROCK
16
12
$17
Morgan
RUSAMBO
12
10
$13
Snowden
21/9
B-G3
RAEBURN
32
2
$4.60
B. Smith
ESSINGTON
26
4
$7.50
Hansen
ELUSIVE KING
21
4
$17
Kendrick
CRAIGLEA FALCON
13
7
$17
Fleming
FALINO
23
6
$4.80
D. Bell
D’JET
13
5
$4.60
Lavin
ARADO
13
4
$6
M. Nolan
S-D4
SAINTHOOD
40
2
$12
Worth/ton
CHARLESTON LADY
22
6
$21
Vandyke
PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT
12
3
$17
McInerney
DESTRUCTION
15
12
$31
Thompson
VALDHEZ
25
13
$31
Waugh
SINCERO
12
8
$41
Farley
TAGUS
12
10
$51
Thompson
TITLE
17
9
$12
Pride
ASHOKAN
18
4
$10
W/house
MASKED MARVEL
24
3
$20
Hickmott
BAYRIR
13
8
$6.50
Waller
SNEAK A PEEK
24
4
$11
Moody
IRONSTEIN
22
5
$15
Ryan
HAY LIST
18
11
$10
McNair
MANAWANUI
22
12
$21
Lemon
TIGER TEES
12
8
$8
Pride
SPIRIT OF BOOM
20
3
$8
T. Gollan
M-S6
ZOOMANIA
20
8
$16
Moody
GO THE KNUCKLE
21
10
$10
Smerdon
CANALI
21
5
$11
Brown
ANISE
17
2
$9
Snowden
BOCUSE
19
9
$101
Bourke
HI BELLE
18
2
$16
Gunning
OUR MISS JONES
12
8
$12
Kent
ANABAA’S LEGACY
22
4
$51
Binaisse
SOLEDAD
14
10
$16
Snowden
SEVILLE
35
9
$15
Hickmott
MOUDRE
34
6
$12
Maher
KESAMPOUR
16
2
$12
Moody
SAHARA SUN
20
13
$101
Maher
28/9
B-D4
SINISTER PRINCE
19
2
$15
Heinemann
PLAYACTION
21
6
$61
Cl/Peoples
JOPA
16
9
$15
Heathcote
THE SIXTIES
13
3
$31
Green
METALLURGICAL
17
7
$17
Thompson
RACING HEART
21
9
$26
B. Smith
WHAT ABOUT ME
17
3
$8
Schweida
ORTHIE’S GEM
26
10
$51
Sylvester
S-G3
JUNOOB
19
6
$26
Waller
POLISH KNIGHT
17
4
$10
Hawkes
I’M IMPOSING
35
2
$5.50
Waller
MONTON
19
7
$20
Quinton
SINGLE
18
10
$26
Carmody
ASHOKAN
18
4
$8.50
W/house
TROMSO
16
6
$13
Waller
27/9
M-D5
SENSATIONAL REPORT
17
3
$41
Wynne
UNRULY PRINCESS
20
9
$151
Diplock
HAWKS BAY
13
11
$51
Dyer
LORD PYRUS
31
6
$101
Mawer
HOT SPIN
19
8
$51
Edwards
OASIS BLOOM
12
5
$6
Morgan
EXTRA ZERO
18
12
$21
Hayes
HISTORY NO HURDLE
12
9
$151
Hutc/son
29/9
M-D4
DETOX
16
9
$7
Stephens
CUBAN SUNDAY
12
11
$26
Carey
GOLDONI
12
8
$16
Hayes
FABRIANO
15
3
$17
Donnelly
UNDERESTIMATION
17
12
$12
Lawson
RANKED
17
11
$21
Hickmott
TWILIGHTING
12
7
$20
Ellerton
SHE GOES TO RIO
18
13
$18
Weir
CRIMSON LADY
17
5
$31
Moroney
PASS THE POST
15
12
$31
Scott
BALUCH
12
10
$7
Moody
DECEMBER DRAW
23
9
$51
Kavanagh
TEMPLE OF BOOM
17
8
$21
T. Gollan
YOSEI
27
12
$51
Webb
MUTUAL TRUST
14
11
$31
Prit/Gordon
So after the first nine calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 150 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during September 2013. Of those 150 horses a pathetic 3 or only 2.00% won. The 3 that won in this month’s surveyed horses included two real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf – Gangster’s Choice and Decision Time. The other one goes okay, good enough in fact to win the Melbourne Cup last week – Fiorente.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 150 “long term losers” that raced in September they’d obviously outlay $150 and the return including their $1 stake back was just $17.70, so a punter would get a deplorable 11.80% of their outlay back, meaning they’d lose 88.20% of their stake.
So in the nine months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1623 “long term losers” have run and of the 1623, only 95 have won, which means 5.85% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 94.15% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the nine months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1623 outlaid ($113 in January, $125 in February, $156 in March, $154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July, $232 in August and $150 in September) and the return including their $1 stake would be $939.30 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July, $191.40 in August and $17.70 in September), meaning a punter would get back 57.87% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 42.13% of their stake.
In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.
The shortest priced long term loser to get home first in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months. You wouldn’t believe the name of the horse that ran second? Yep – website favourite Mic Mac. Let us pray.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Eagle Farm last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story on the passing of an Australian thoroughbred breeding icon at the grand old age of 91, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at Victorian racing.