BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 11

BACKING LONG TERM LOSERS IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE….Part 11

08/01/14

On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what would be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that hadn’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses that were contesting Saturday city races – was simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.

To have any chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.

Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won a race anywhere in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy – as I’ve already proven in 10 of the 12 articles that have already gone up here during the calendar year-to-date. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.

Those 10 previous stories that I’ve already penned on the subject from the first 10 calendar months of 2013 – can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.

Other website stories like this one are running really late going up – due to the Melbourne Spring Carnival obviously taking priority when it was on, but today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of November 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” and “good judges” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.

DATE

CITY

HORSE

MONTHS SINCE WON

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

2/11

B-G3

Racing Heart

13

4

$16

B. Smith

 

 

Leviosa

17

7

$8

Graham

 

 

Tear It UP

19

6

$14

T. Gollan

 

 

Sinister Prince

22

6

$3.60

Heinemann

 

 

Whiskey Allround

12

4

$2.90

T. Gollan

 

 

Caellum

13

7

$4.60

B. Smith

 

S-G3

Bonzerina

16

8

$151

De Montfort

 

 

Pampelonne

13

7

$4.60

Martin

 

 

Single

19

4

$8

Carmody

 

 

The Offer

12

2

$5

W/house

 

 

Celtic Fantasy

21

9

$31

C. Ritchie

 

 

Kirinata

16

8

$91

Perry

 

 

Maluckyday

36

7

$15

Hawkes

 

 

Permit

18

8

$61

Waller

 

 

Tromso

17

2

$12

Waller

 

 

Solemn

12

2

$12

Snowden

 

 

Rolston

26

8

$51

O’Grady

 

M-D4

Ethiopia

18

4

$26

Carey

 

 

Moudre

35

8

$61

Maher

 

 

Ironstein

23

6

$12

Ryan

 

 

Garud

12

5

$14

Moroney

 

 

Ruscello

13

1

$11

Walker

 

 

Side Glance

17

1

$12

Balding

 

 

Zurella

13

7

$26

S. Ritchie

 

 

Floria

19

6

$14

Moody

 

 

Fat Al

12

15

$61

W/house

 

 

Albrecht

14

11

$9

Snowden

 

 

Longport

13

9

$51

Bougoure

 

 

Smokin’ Joey

18

1

$41

Price

9/11

B-G3

Stradon

19

4

$2.50

Gough

 

 

Facile Tigre

24

4

$16

Roberts

 

 

Tail And All

12

1

$4.80

Heathcote

 

 

Reassemble

12

11

$101

Barling

 

 

Theft

13

3

$3.20

T. Gollan

 

 

Essington

28

4

$8

Hansen

 

 

Achievements

17

2

$7.50

Hansen

 

 

Havatryst

21

8

$31

Heathcote

 

 

Maroney Avenue

13

6

$12

Boyle

 

 

Hearts’N’Diamonds

34

10

$31

Roberts

 

S-G3

Capital Commander

19

1

$3.60

Olive

 

 

Mr Edison

20

6

$26

B. Cummings

 

 

Big Time

25

4

$12

Waller

 

 

Viking Legend

49

5

$31

Simpson

 

 

Punch Your Weight

14

7

$12

McInerney

 

 

Republic Lad

20

6

$26

Waller

 

 

Liveandletdie

20

8

$31

Baker

 

 

Myamira

14

4

$15

Northam

 

 

Miss Venus

13

7

$61

Bridge

 

 

At All Costs

15

5

$4.80

Lees

 

 

Rolston

26

2

$16

O’Grady

 

 

Number One Gun

15

9

$26

O’Shea

 

 

Reflectance

12

2

$18

Thompson

 

M-D4

Extra Zero

19

4

$20

Hayes

 

 

Zurella

14

12

$12

S. Ritchie

 

 

Kazanluk

13

5

$26

Freedman

 

 

Detox

18

9

$41

Stephens

 

 

Epingle

16

4

$17

Kent

 

 

Temple of Boom

18

5

$41

T. Gollan

 

 

Moment of Change

13

3

$9

Moody

 

 

Villa Verde

12

11

$21

Dwyer

 

 

Stipulate

18

12

$26

Hayes

 

 

Moudre

36

7

$31

Maher

 

 

Ironstein

24

5

$19

Ryan

 

 

Verdant

12

10

$31

Smerdon

 

 

Garud

13

6

$13

Moroney

 

 

Longport

13

1

$7

Bougoure

 

 

By The Way

22

3

$13

Lewis

 

 

Rockpecker

20

9

$101

Fythe

16/11

B-D5

Pirate Bay

18

4

$4

Lees

 

 

Comahni

18

2

$8

Wilson

 

 

Tear It Up

20

3

$9

T. Gollan

 

 

Fillydelphia

12

1

$6.50

Heathcote

 

 

Poor Judge

13

6

$11

Jordan

 

 

Theft

13

5

$3

T. Gollan

 

 

Essington

28

4

$6.50

Hansen

 

 

Lady Colours

21

7

$15

Hill

 

S-G3

Permit

19

2

$31

Waller

 

 

Hoylonny

12

1

$15

Waller

 

 

Pampelonne

13

6

$31

Martin

 

 

My Destiny

22

5

$18

Litt

 

 

Soledad

16

3

$13

Snowden

 

 

Prince of Sofia

13

8

$71

Waugh

 

M-D4

Moudre

36

5

$11

Maher

 

 

Caravan Rolls On

14

1

$2.25

Chap/Hyam

 

 

Rowland

14

10

$41

Laing

 

 

Hartani

16

10

$12

Hickmott

 

 

Veewap

13

8

$31

Vasil

 

 

Koonoomoo

12

8

$14

Grantley

 

 

Go The Knuckle

20

2

$26

Smerdon

 

 

Lady of Harrods

13

5

$21

Cameron

 

 

Epingle

17

2

$12

Kent

 

 

Detox

19

5

$61

Stephens

 

 

Kazanluk

13

8

$15

Freedman

 

 

Pinwheel

14

5

$12

Snowden

 

 

Vatuvei

12

12

$201

Moody

 

 

Hi Belle

20

2

$11

Gunning

 

 

Members Joy

14

11

$10

Smerdon

 

 

Floria

19

1

$2.50

Moody

 

 

Twilighting

13

5

$26

Ellerton

23/11

B-G3

Pirate Bay

18

12

$9.50

Lees

 

 

Seek And Find

18

2

$13

Wood

 

 

Haizum

20

8

$41

Sears

 

 

Firebolt

17

15

$41

Wood

 

 

Phelan Ready

55

9

$21

Roberts

 

 

Renewed Vitality

25

5

$26

Thompson

 

 

Havatryst

21

11

$81

Heathcote

 

 

Stradon

19

3

$6

Gough

 

S-G3

Palasport

17

6

$71

Hickman

 

 

Reflectance

13

5

$12

Thompson

 

 

Home On A Wing

27

3

$26

A. Cummings

 

 

Reigning

12

6

$21

B. Cummings

 

 

Solemn

12

1

$5.50

Snowden

 

 

Medusa’s Miss

12

10

$5.50

Moses

 

 

Abeautifulred

20

6

$41

Sergeant

 

 

Liveandletdie

21

9

$61

Baker

 

 

Territory

37

1

$9.50

Austin

 

 

Forarainyday

14

5

$5

Walter

 

M-D5

Anudjawun

42

1

$9

Dwyer

 

 

Retlaw Lad

20

7

$51

McCabe

 

 

Nadhima

15

4

$16

Hinton

 

 

Prizum

13

8

$9

Sadler

 

 

Lord Pyrus

33

7

$26

Mawer

 

 

God’s Window

16

11

$41

Dwyer

 

 

Youbolt

15

9

$41

McLean

 

 

The Minister

14

8

$26

Keirl

 

 

Republic Lad

22

9

$13

Waller

 

 

Blazing Dragon

13

4

$8

B. Cummings

 

 

Solsay

17

1

$8

Kent

 

 

Hot Spin

20

14

$101

Edwards

 

 

Anabaa’s Legacy

36

7

$10

Binaisse

 

 

The Long Road

15

13

$61

Burns

 

 

Sensational Report

19

6

$51

Wynne

30/11

B-H8

Achievements

18

5

$6

Hansen

 

 

Blakey Boy

26

2

$21

Morris

 

 

Arma

24

13

$101

Pholi

 

 

Tear It Up

20

5

$31

T. Gollan

 

 

Essington

28

4

$26

Hansen

 

 

Za Magic

19

12

$31

Smith

 

S-D5

Kukla

12

8

$15

Snowden

 

 

Maluckyday

37

4

$10

Hawkes

 

 

Permit

19

8

$8.50

Waller

 

 

Rule Book

14

10

$31

W/house

 

 

Hard Liquor

14

8

$15

A. Cummings

 

 

Specific Choice

12

6

$2.60

Waller

 

 

Monton

23

8

$31

Quinton

 

 

Straight Albert

22

7

$61

Walter

 

 

Uate

12

6

$21

Lees

 

 

Kaypers

15

9

$61

Bennett

 

 

Falzzon

19

11

$41

Schmetzer

 

 

Mecir

18

1

$9.50

Hawkes

 

 

Kirinata

17

10

$41

Perry

 

M-G3

The Peak

12

2

$12

B. Cummings

 

 

Rockpecker

20

7

$71

Fythe

 

 

Crucial

19

4

$21

A. Freedman

 

 

Lady of Harrods

14

5

$4.20

Cameron

 

 

Sensational Report

19

1

$41

Wynne

 

 

Oasis Rose

24

10

$7.50

Moody

 

 

Amaethon

20

8

$41

Ellerton

 

 

Cascabel

31

12

$16

Griffiths

 

 

Morant

25

4

$31

Williams

 

 

Extra Zero

20

2

$51

Hayes

 

 

Twilighting

14

5

$21

Ellerton

 

 

Isopach

25

12

$61

James

 

So after the first 11 calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 163 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during November 2013. Of those 163 horses only 16, or only 9.82% won. The 16 that won in this month’s surveyed horses included some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf – Ruscello, Side Glance, Smokin’ Joey, Tail And All, Capital Commander, Longport, Fillydelphia, Hoylonny, Caravan Rolls On, Floria, Solemn, Territory, Anudjawun, Solsay, Mecir and Sensational Report.

If a punter had $1 a win on the 163 “long term losers” that raced in November they’d obviously outlay $163 and the return, including their $1 stake back, was amazingly a profit figure, as they’d get back $188.15 – thanks to two roughies winning in Melbourne – namely Smokin’ Joey and Sensational Report – which both started at 40/1, so a punter would get 115.43% of their outlay back, meaning they’d finally show a profit for the first time in month 11 of the 12 months survey of 15.43% of their stake.

So in the 11 months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1921 “long term losers” have run – and of the 1921, only 122 have won, which means 6.35% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 93.65% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.

Across the 11 months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1921 outlaid ($113 in January, $125 in February, $156 in March, $154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July, $232 in August, $150 in September, $135 in October and $163 in November) and the return including their $1 stake would be $1254.55 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July, $191.40 in August, $17.70 in September, $127.10 in October) and $188.15 in November, meaning a punter would get back 65.31% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 34.69% of their stake.

In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.

The shortest priced long term loser to get home first in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first of two montages of photos from the Gold Coast last Saturday plus others of interest. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story of a two pronged attack on the Temora Cup on Friday, plus news on three positive swabs is advised by HRNSW, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Magic Millions on Saturday.