08/01/14
On 7/2/2013 I penned the first of what would be 12 monthly stories proving that backing horses that hadn’t won a race anywhere for the last 52 weeks or more, when those horses that were contesting Saturday city races – was simply a quick way for a punter to lose their hard earned.
To have any chance of winning whilst punting over the course of a calendar year, punters need to establish some rules to abide by. Those rules may be to 1) not to back odds-on favourites, 2) not to bet on slow or heavy tracks, 3) not to back horses resuming from a spell, 4) not to back horses from certain overrated stables, etcetera.
Avoiding backing horses in Saturday city races that haven’t won a race anywhere in the last 52 weeks is a good rule to implement into one’s punting strategy – as I’ve already proven in 10 of the 12 articles that have already gone up here during the calendar year-to-date. Like any other rule of punting, the odd one will win, but not enough will win to make you ever consider changing the rule once it’s been invoked.
Those 10 previous stories that I’ve already penned on the subject from the first 10 calendar months of 2013 – can be read in the archives at the far bottom of this page.
Other website stories like this one are running really late going up – due to the Melbourne Spring Carnival obviously taking priority when it was on, but today I look back on “long term losers” that raced in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne Saturday races during the month of November 2013 and you’ll see a few familiar names that you regularly 1) hear the “experts” and “good judges” tip and/or that 2) ill-informed punters back time and again. The track rating at the end of the meeting is listed in the report along with the number of months since the horse has won, along with the name of the trainer, the placing it ran on the day and the official starting price.
DATE
CITY
HORSE
MONTHS SINCE WON
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
2/11
B-G3
Racing Heart
13
4
$16
B. Smith
Leviosa
17
7
$8
Graham
Tear It UP
19
6
$14
T. Gollan
Sinister Prince
22
6
$3.60
Heinemann
Whiskey Allround
12
4
$2.90
T. Gollan
Caellum
13
7
$4.60
B. Smith
S-G3
Bonzerina
16
8
$151
De Montfort
Pampelonne
13
7
$4.60
Martin
Single
19
4
$8
Carmody
The Offer
12
2
$5
W/house
Celtic Fantasy
21
9
$31
C. Ritchie
Kirinata
16
8
$91
Perry
Maluckyday
36
7
$15
Hawkes
Permit
18
8
$61
Waller
Tromso
17
2
$12
Waller
Solemn
12
2
$12
Snowden
Rolston
26
8
$51
O’Grady
M-D4
Ethiopia
18
4
$26
Carey
Moudre
35
8
$61
Maher
Ironstein
23
6
$12
Ryan
Garud
12
5
$14
Moroney
Ruscello
13
1
$11
Walker
Side Glance
17
1
$12
Balding
Zurella
13
7
$26
S. Ritchie
Floria
19
6
$14
Moody
Fat Al
12
15
$61
W/house
Albrecht
14
11
$9
Snowden
Longport
13
9
$51
Bougoure
Smokin’ Joey
18
1
$41
Price
9/11
B-G3
Stradon
19
4
$2.50
Gough
Facile Tigre
24
4
$16
Roberts
Tail And All
12
1
$4.80
Heathcote
Reassemble
12
11
$101
Barling
Theft
13
3
$3.20
T. Gollan
Essington
28
4
$8
Hansen
Achievements
17
2
$7.50
Hansen
Havatryst
21
8
$31
Heathcote
Maroney Avenue
13
6
$12
Boyle
Hearts’N’Diamonds
34
10
$31
Roberts
S-G3
Capital Commander
19
1
$3.60
Olive
Mr Edison
20
6
$26
B. Cummings
Big Time
25
4
$12
Waller
Viking Legend
49
5
$31
Simpson
Punch Your Weight
14
7
$12
McInerney
Republic Lad
20
6
$26
Waller
Liveandletdie
20
8
$31
Baker
Myamira
14
4
$15
Northam
Miss Venus
13
7
$61
Bridge
At All Costs
15
5
$4.80
Lees
Rolston
26
2
$16
O’Grady
Number One Gun
15
9
$26
O’Shea
Reflectance
12
2
$18
Thompson
M-D4
Extra Zero
19
4
$20
Hayes
Zurella
14
12
$12
S. Ritchie
Kazanluk
13
5
$26
Freedman
Detox
18
9
$41
Stephens
Epingle
16
4
$17
Kent
Temple of Boom
18
5
$41
T. Gollan
Moment of Change
13
3
$9
Moody
Villa Verde
12
11
$21
Dwyer
Stipulate
18
12
$26
Hayes
Moudre
36
7
$31
Maher
Ironstein
24
5
$19
Ryan
Verdant
12
10
$31
Smerdon
Garud
13
6
$13
Moroney
Longport
13
1
$7
Bougoure
By The Way
22
3
$13
Lewis
Rockpecker
20
9
$101
Fythe
16/11
B-D5
Pirate Bay
18
4
$4
Lees
Comahni
18
2
$8
Wilson
Tear It Up
20
3
$9
T. Gollan
Fillydelphia
12
1
$6.50
Heathcote
Poor Judge
13
6
$11
Jordan
Theft
13
5
$3
T. Gollan
Essington
28
4
$6.50
Hansen
Lady Colours
21
7
$15
Hill
S-G3
Permit
19
2
$31
Waller
Hoylonny
12
1
$15
Waller
Pampelonne
13
6
$31
Martin
My Destiny
22
5
$18
Litt
Soledad
16
3
$13
Snowden
Prince of Sofia
13
8
$71
Waugh
M-D4
Moudre
36
5
$11
Maher
Caravan Rolls On
14
1
$2.25
Chap/Hyam
Rowland
14
10
$41
Laing
Hartani
16
10
$12
Hickmott
Veewap
13
8
$31
Vasil
Koonoomoo
12
8
$14
Grantley
Go The Knuckle
20
2
$26
Smerdon
Lady of Harrods
13
5
$21
Cameron
Epingle
17
2
$12
Kent
Detox
19
5
$61
Stephens
Kazanluk
13
8
$15
Freedman
Pinwheel
14
5
$12
Snowden
Vatuvei
12
12
$201
Moody
Hi Belle
20
2
$11
Gunning
Members Joy
14
11
$10
Smerdon
Floria
19
1
$2.50
Moody
Twilighting
13
5
$26
Ellerton
23/11
B-G3
Pirate Bay
18
12
$9.50
Lees
Seek And Find
18
2
$13
Wood
Haizum
20
8
$41
Sears
Firebolt
17
15
$41
Wood
Phelan Ready
55
9
$21
Roberts
Renewed Vitality
25
5
$26
Thompson
Havatryst
21
11
$81
Heathcote
Stradon
19
3
$6
Gough
S-G3
Palasport
17
6
$71
Hickman
Reflectance
13
5
$12
Thompson
Home On A Wing
27
3
$26
A. Cummings
Reigning
12
6
$21
B. Cummings
Solemn
12
1
$5.50
Snowden
Medusa’s Miss
12
10
$5.50
Moses
Abeautifulred
20
6
$41
Sergeant
Liveandletdie
21
9
$61
Baker
Territory
37
1
$9.50
Austin
Forarainyday
14
5
$5
Walter
M-D5
Anudjawun
42
1
$9
Dwyer
Retlaw Lad
20
7
$51
McCabe
Nadhima
15
4
$16
Hinton
Prizum
13
8
$9
Sadler
Lord Pyrus
33
7
$26
Mawer
God’s Window
16
11
$41
Dwyer
Youbolt
15
9
$41
McLean
The Minister
14
8
$26
Keirl
Republic Lad
22
9
$13
Waller
Blazing Dragon
13
4
$8
B. Cummings
Solsay
17
1
$8
Kent
Hot Spin
20
14
$101
Edwards
Anabaa’s Legacy
36
7
$10
Binaisse
The Long Road
15
13
$61
Burns
Sensational Report
19
6
$51
Wynne
30/11
B-H8
Achievements
18
5
$6
Hansen
Blakey Boy
26
2
$21
Morris
Arma
24
13
$101
Pholi
Tear It Up
20
5
$31
T. Gollan
Essington
28
4
$26
Hansen
Za Magic
19
12
$31
Smith
S-D5
Kukla
12
8
$15
Snowden
Maluckyday
37
4
$10
Hawkes
Permit
19
8
$8.50
Waller
Rule Book
14
10
$31
W/house
Hard Liquor
14
8
$15
A. Cummings
Specific Choice
12
6
$2.60
Waller
Monton
23
8
$31
Quinton
Straight Albert
22
7
$61
Walter
Uate
12
6
$21
Lees
Kaypers
15
9
$61
Bennett
Falzzon
19
11
$41
Schmetzer
Mecir
18
1
$9.50
Hawkes
Kirinata
17
10
$41
Perry
M-G3
The Peak
12
2
$12
B. Cummings
Rockpecker
20
7
$71
Fythe
Crucial
19
4
$21
A. Freedman
Lady of Harrods
14
5
$4.20
Cameron
Sensational Report
19
1
$41
Wynne
Oasis Rose
24
10
$7.50
Moody
Amaethon
20
8
$41
Ellerton
Cascabel
31
12
$16
Griffiths
Morant
25
4
$31
Williams
Extra Zero
20
2
$51
Hayes
Twilighting
14
5
$21
Ellerton
Isopach
25
12
$61
James
So after the first 11 calendar months of 2013 Saturday metropolitan race meetings in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, a further 163 horses that hadn’t won for 52 weeks or more started during November 2013. Of those 163 horses only 16, or only 9.82% won. The 16 that won in this month’s surveyed horses included some real little heartthrobs of the Australian turf – Ruscello, Side Glance, Smokin’ Joey, Tail And All, Capital Commander, Longport, Fillydelphia, Hoylonny, Caravan Rolls On, Floria, Solemn, Territory, Anudjawun, Solsay, Mecir and Sensational Report.
If a punter had $1 a win on the 163 “long term losers” that raced in November they’d obviously outlay $163 and the return, including their $1 stake back, was amazingly a profit figure, as they’d get back $188.15 – thanks to two roughies winning in Melbourne – namely Smokin’ Joey and Sensational Report – which both started at 40/1, so a punter would get 115.43% of their outlay back, meaning they’d finally show a profit for the first time in month 11 of the 12 months survey of 15.43% of their stake.
So in the 11 months that this story has been run on Justracing, no fewer than 1921 “long term losers” have run – and of the 1921, only 122 have won, which means 6.35% of “long term losers” actually managed to win another Saturday city race, so conversely 93.65% lost, which shows punters what an exercise in futility the practice is.
Across the 11 months, a $1 win bet on each horse would see $1921 outlaid ($113 in January, $125 in February, $156 in March, $154 in April, $240 in May, $246 in June, $207 in July, $232 in August, $150 in September, $135 in October and $163 in November) and the return including their $1 stake would be $1254.55 ($48.50 in January, $45.50 in February, $85.00 in March, $84.00 in April, $125.50 in May, $114.90 in June, $226.80 in July, $191.40 in August, $17.70 in September, $127.10 in October) and $188.15 in November, meaning a punter would get back 65.31% of their outlay, so conversely they’d lose 34.69% of their stake.
In the 2013 calendar year-to-date, the Saturday city race in any of Brisbane, Sydney, or Melbourne that had the biggest number of “long term losers” in it, was Race 5 at Flemington on 22/6/13. There were no fewer than 11 horses that jumped from the barriers in that field of 16 that had not won a race for 52 weeks or longer and those 11 horses and the number of months that they had been absent from the winners list were: Extra Zero (14), Utah Saints (14), Magnifique Soleil (13), Rockpecker (15), Testascana (21), By The Way (18), Blackie (27), Dash For Viz (20), Under The Hat (16), Cornwall Park (24), Dark Note (24). So those 11 horses comprised an amazing 68.75% of the 16-horse field, yet the pair that finished up running the quinella didn’t emanate from that huge group of “long term losers” and “non-achievers” – as Club Command won the race and Another Prelate ran second.
The shortest priced long term loser to get home first in the calendar year-to-date was Rain Affair at $1.30. He got home in the Group 3 Missile Stakes at Randwick on 10/8/13 beating five slugs after he’d been out of the winner’s list for an incredible 16 months.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the first of two montages of photos from the Gold Coast last Saturday plus others of interest. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story of a two pronged attack on the Temora Cup on Friday, plus news on three positive swabs is advised by HRNSW, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls looks at the Magic Millions on Saturday.