02/12/14
On 13/11/14 I penned a website story entitled “Exclusive: Clif Cary teaches those punters who would like to learn…..Part 1” and in that story the following was written by Clif Cary about the late professional punter Eric Connolly:
“Connolly in later life as an investor became a multiple bettor. He made a book against the bookmaker in order to twist the percentages in his favour and not against him. He marked his changed approach with the oft-quoted statement – “I had one certainty and it was beaten.” He said the experience cured him from mostly never putting all his eggs in one basket in case they became scrambled. The Connolly method of betting will be fully explained. But we have already learned three extremely interesting points:
A-You can beat the races by concentrating on predictable races.
B-Acquire patience, and so know when to bet and when to watch.
C-And when you bet rarely pin your faith entirely to just one horse.
No one can refute points A and B. They are basic fundamentals aimed at reducing the number of losing plays and improving the collect percentage. There are many, however, who quarrel with point C. The tired old argument is that the person who bets on more than one horse to win the same race must lose because he is betting against himself: that if, for instance, he wagers on three runners he has to lose on two of them.
This submission does not stand up, and is in direct opposition to the professional edict that the basis of betting is to make a profit on the investment.
Joe Blow, for example, does the form on a race and decides there are three definite chances. He decides to back one of them. Joe, win or lose, is the person who is betting against himself.
I know several people who make racing pay by betting all the true contenders in a race on a flat stake providing there are not too many, and the odds-spread is right. They work on the premise that a race which is suitable for play is any race in which it is possible to make a flat bet on all the contenders and either break square (at the worst) or show a profit no matter which one of them is successful”.
With that thought in mind, when a race looks as open as the Sydney Heads, I often recommend to my Saturday Morning Mail clients that they spread their risk by having half their stake on two horses. Or if there is a big difference in the prices of the two horses that you have settled on – say one is 12/1 and the other is 6/1, you could have 75% of your stake each way on the 6/1 horse and the other 25% each way on the 12/1 horse. If you like the 2/1 favourite in a race but are worried about the 20/1 chance, you could have say 90% of your stake on the favourite and the other 10% each way on the 20/1 chance – and so on and so forth. Always remember half a loaf is better than none. In fact just one slice of the loaf will give you sustenance to live for another day. By putting all your eggs in one basket, if you drop the basket they are all broken.
My Saturday Morning Mail preview of the Festival Stakes last Saturday read:
HORSE
COMMENT
MONTON
Placed at last three starts but he’s never been a horse of mine, so I couldn’t have him on top here.
MOURO
Scratched from Doomben today to run here but flopped second up last time in after 21 days off, so I don’t want to be in his corner here after he’s had only 14 days off between his first up and second up runs.
AOMEN
Won first up in Australia after 78 weeks off for Anthony Cummings at Randwick on 11/10/14 then got lost in the Reparations race up the Flemington straight on Melbourne Cup day, so I’d want to see him do it again in Sydney from the wide alley before committing.
STRAWBERRY BOY
Won first up for the Waller stable after being with Waterhouse and Moody so if Waller has found the key to the horse he can go on with the job here, but I’m 50/50 on that.
GENERALIFE
Loomed to win at Sandown last start when selected here and dogged it and got beaten half-a-head, so I’m not convinced he’s genuine and accordingly couldn’t tip him on top here.
HEART TESTA
Won his first race in 12 months to the day when he saluted here 14 days ago at 4/1 over Mouro. Yet to win past 1350 and this is 1500, so this is his sole negative.
SCREAM MACHINE
Never likely when out the back at 16/1 in the Heart Testa race here 14 days ago but stepping up to 1500 will be more to his liking. Could spring an upset on his best form like being beaten less than two lengths in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000 this year, but he’s a bit hit and miss.
SIR MOMENTS
His last four runs have all been terrific and he is third up here today at a distance that suits and he has won six of 12 career starts, so there’s no reason why he isn’t a winning chance.
HOYLONNY
Resumes here from an 11-week let-up but has not done anything fresh of note in his 34 start career – so no.
I’M IMPOSING
A strange horse that can pull a rabbit out of the hat run when least expected to the point where he could spring a massive surprise today as he’s been placed at eight of 11 starts here and has never missed a place in five goes at the track and distance and Angland and he have a terrific association.
ESTONIAN PRINCESS
Getting beaten in mare’s grade in the Melbourne Spring Carnival and whilst she drops 4kgs here on her last run I couldn’t have her against the males.
MECIR
Two runs back from 21 weeks off have been awful, so he’s impossible to have here.
MULTILATERAL
Hasn’t started for nine weeks and hasn’t won under 1800 metres – so hardly. Crossover noseband comes off for the first time today.
KEEP COOL
Unplaced at last four starts but his effort when seventh to Heart Testa at 16/1 some 14 days ago was good, so I think he has a place chance at big odds from the good alley as he’ll get up on the pace.
Additional comments: I can’t settle on any of these horses that are in the market so I’d have half my stake each way on two roughies – Scream Machine and I’m Imposing.
So I’m Imposing won at officially $19 – but paid as much as $22.20 on a “best of three totes” basis – to give Saturday Morning Mail clients of this website another big winning result. Their advised “best bet of the day” – Our Boy Malachi – bolted in and they had multiple other winners on the day as well from the eight previewed races.
And in other wonderful website news – but more bad news for website detractors – Brisbane Sectional Times clients were advised last Saturday to lay Doomben Race 2 short priced favourite, the heavily backed Bingo Rose, to get beaten. She never looked likely after firming from $3.20 into $2.90 on course. In fact she couldn’t even run a place in the six-horse field, so what a great recommended lay she was – painless to watch. Clients of Brisbane Sectional Times at the end of each weekly report are given an updated list of horses to lay to get beaten at their next start and in the calendar year-to-date from over 100 advised primarily last start winners at short prices, that I suggested cannot win at their next start, I have been over 90% correct. Do you know of any other service in thoroughbred racing that is over 90% accurate? Over a 10-year period it’s been right on average about 86%.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the story on the results that are starting to happen for Wattle Brae Stud stallion Exceedingly Good. On www.sydneyracing.com.au David Clarkson has been in Japan for the Japan Cup which was run last Sunday – and he reports in on that race, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au Victorian racing is perused.