Firstly, thanks to those people who provided the kind words after we nailed the race in last Friday preview again and congratulations to those who judging by the comments got some massive dividends in the exotics – it’s always good to see punters winning.
This Saturday the 17th of December sees Randwick host its first meeting for some time and we have the rail in the true position with a chance of some rain around which places the under pressure course curator in Nevesh Ramdhani into a tricky position. Normally in these instances they don’t artificially water as they are worried about the natural rain. However, if they don’t get the rain the track therefore plays firmer than they want and then the trainers whinge.
Before the break we saw the track play much more even and fair where in previous meetings a typical true rail position meant that the best ground was 8 to 10 horses wide in the straight and typically those on the rail where disadvantaged between 4 to 6 lengths such was the bias. In recent times though things have turned around to be much more even.
Without knowing the conditions I’m suggesting the track will play firm and if it is id expect to see horses 3 to 5 off the fence best suited. If rain comes then even wider will be suited and hence low draws will be no good and wide draws a big tick.
The race I have decided to preview for this Saturday is Race 2 at Randwick over 1600m. For mine there are a number of horses we can “pen” or put a line through and on paper it looks only even speed.
|
Horse |
Normally Settles |
Comment |
|
MOHER |
Leads |
Currently Trading $4.40 to $4.60. Is our leader here with the young apprentice and has had a good 12 months with 4 wins and 4 placings, He is a bit of a flat track bully but he gets his chance to dictate here on an average tempo. Forget his last start when poorly placed and in this type of race his much better suited. He has got a decent record at the trip and he represents a very tempting price and rates on top. If the jockey rates him correctly in front then he will be impossible to run down. Any track conditions are fine. Being 6th up I do expect he will get slightly better. |
|
JUST A BLUR |
Worse than midfield to last |
Currently Trading between $51 and $101. Just 1 win in the last 15 runs in 12 months- but 2-3 of those runs would get her in the finish- but we focus more on recent form and on recent form they will be running only to run top 10 and pick up the $2k for running 10th. No hope for mine on current form- the firmer the track the better for mine. |
|
LUCKY PADDY |
Midfield |
Currently Trading $7.50 to $11. Gets a suck run on the map but the great man DK WEIR has 2 placings from 14 career runners in NSW. Yendall knows the horse but for mine is not a Sydney jockey in that tactically he can get caught out in a racing environment that is much more tactical than what he is used to in Melbourne. We also have to account that Melbourne form is largely 3 to 4 lengths weaker than Sydney. The horse on top of all this hasn’t won a race in over 12 months. Normally the best idea with Melbourne horses is to pen them and this one doesn’t have much in the positive column for mine except that it’s on a 7 day backup which is gold. If he didn’t have the 7 day back up he would be not snowflakes hope in hell but that little 7 day back up gives him a place chance- although the horses odds here are well short of where any person who respects money should take. |
|
Redoubtable Heart |
Midfield but expect him to snag to last |
Currently Trading $3.20 to $3.40. This horse deserves to be in the market on his last run. But he is a low animal in that his won just 2 from 17 and before last start 1 from 16! So you are very brave to be making him your only bet. Being by Redoute’s if we get a slow or worse I don’t want to be on him at all. Also with his gate speed he maps poorly and will be forced to travel 4 wide or snag to last. Can win but his under the odds. |
|
Metallic Crown |
OSL? (Outside Lead) |
Currently Trading $14 to $16. He is a horse who can’t maintain his form and peaks 1st and 2nd up. Is a common beast and the odds here are well sort of what they should be. Gets Bowman which is a tick but I think they are hoping more than anything. Hughie also always takes a few rides back from overseas to get going. Pen job! |
|
Col ‘N’ Lil |
Forward midfield to on speed |
Currently Trading $26 to $31. Hope begins at dawn but this is just plain silly- no hope! |
|
Rustic Melody |
Midfield to worse than midfield |
Currently Trading $16 to $17. Nom for Friday night and expect her to go there as that is easier. She does handle the wet and if the rain comes is some hope as the stable is flying and is currently 3rd on the NSW premiership behind only Waller and O’Shea (superior numbers). This horse though raced very flat first up which is a concern so will prefer a wetter track and up in trip to make it more of a slug fest. There is a chance she is “gone” but at very best is good enough to beat them here- however on that last run it suggests place only. |
|
Unbiased |
Forward of midfield |
Currently Trading $4.60 to $5.50. Strange to see him here as steward’s report said he had a poor recovery after the last run just 7 days ago and yet his on the quick back up? He is the horse punters will support being lightly raced and the wet track will be fine also. If the field drops away and the tempo is slow then I’d give him less chance as he is a horse desperate for up tempo and above average speed. I’ve got him 3rd pick but he will want them to run along and your punting that he has come through his last run. |
|
Final Decision |
Back |
Currently Trading $13 to $21. He is a horse who likes the wet tracks better but against him is the lack of tempo in the race for a backmarker. In saying that he did something first up to say that he is going ok and is the best roughie in the race. |
|
Manhattan Son |
Midfield |
Currently Trading $17 to $21. Has been hugely flattered in both runs and wins coming into this – but credit goes to his riders on those occasions. Ratings wise they have been ok and he maps good again here. Is better than a $21 chance and is a knock out chance in this. |
|
More than Fabulous |
Worse than midfield |
Currently Trading $7.50 to $9. He would need a career best to win this but I will say the stable has had a great run in the last 2 weeks in the provincials and they are running well – which is key for this stable. The price is too short as the horse needs another lap. |
Overall on paper its Moher and young Nick Heywood’s race to lose. Redoutable Heart is the danger but is no value (although I believe we will see further support for him in the ring) and 3 at a price in Rustic Melody, Final Decision and Manhattan Son can fill the placings at big odds for the exotic players.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au business, as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.
Happy punting and best of luck for the weekend!