Perhaps one of the best days of racing on the Calendar comes around tomorrow and we will see the Champion Mare WINX knock up another Victory. I have her priced $1.02 as she seriously has 6-8 lengths on the field which is amazing. Personally, I’d love to see her get beaten but id Boo Santa and always prefer to cheer for the underdog to knock off the champs. For mine I want to see these horses challenged not given a green light in the processions they have had put on for them- but unfortunately those capable of giving her a run for her money are out injured or lost their form- which makes her such a marvel to be seemingly still improving she has nothing that can get near her in the next 18 months unless something comes from overseas. However good luck to the connections she certainly is a Freak of a beast. If you’re having a play in that race the best way to get some money out of it is to take a Trifecta “blonk” or a First 4 as you know the winner and realistically if the real USA turns up he will be running second and therefore you only need to work out 3rd and 4th which realistically looks to be beaten Hartnell ( I’ve got my doubts he is going any good) – Happy Clapper ( flattered by his recent form ) and Exospheric – the dryer surface will suit him. The best of the rest is my horse Singing but he has more problems than Ben Cousins and Todd Carney out on the drink at Kings Cross and its arguable his best days are behind him.
There was very good mail last week that the course curator rolled the inside part of the part and hence we had a ‘superhighway last week in lanes 1 out to 8- and obviously sitting 2 and 3 wide was suicide and you needed rails in running. Let’s hope someone has read him to riot act if that was the case as it certainly wasn’t the spectacle everyone wanted to see.
We have seen the Randwick surface and especially when we have had close to true rail placements play more on pace type bias in recent times and one sound argument is that with the disastrous Kensington track ripped up- that the course proper now is missing out on the water that gets blown when across the field when the Kenso was getting watered- hence – the ground is more firmer and even- which makes a lot of sense. We all remember when the rail was true at Randwick about the fast lanes 10 off the fence- well it seems that’s a thing of the past now with the better lanes 2,3,4,5,6
Tomorrow we get a 4m rail and given so much traffic came up lanes 4,5,6,7 last weekI expect they will want to get off the fence a bit and come down 4 to 6 wide tomorrow so you want horses drawn to settle Midfield or better and ideally in the 2w running line
To race I’ve focused on this weekend is the Percy Sykes- it’s a very poor field for the $600k on offer as you would get the same field for $200k:
| Horse | Settles | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Formality | leads | Best Price is $7. She settled 8 off in the slipper in a “sandwich- line of 4” which is never ideal- here she gets more control and I think Williams will want to hold the fence. There is a little bit of pressure here so the last 100m and possible stuck in the worse lanes are her issue- has ability and is a winning chance all the same despite her being 5th up. |
| Teaspoon | Outside Lead (kiss of death) | Best Price is $10. Amazingly tough little filly who tries her guts out – unfortunately she is a chance to sit OSL here and that is a very ordinary spot with pressure also outside her. Her chances increase greatly if she takes a sit- 4th up here. |
| Shoals | Second line the fence | Best Price is $3.80. Unbeaten Melbourne filly but was very weak in winning last start- she does map well here but is taking up way too much of the market and I prefer to bet around her despite being undefeated. |
| Serena Bay | Second pair 2w | Best Price is $4.80. This is the filly on the up- she had a soft kill last start but still ran very good figures with a huge TOF in that effort. Can win. |
| Villa Carlotta | 3rd pair 2w | Best Price is $19. She is one who also maps well and will like the speed and firmer track- she has ability but might be a horse for next time in. |
| Almanzora | 3 back the fence | Best Price is $3.80. She looks a high-class filly and won as she liked in easy fashion last time- stuck back on the fence is the only worry and long term followers will know I’m not C Brown’s biggest fan as a rider. She is a definite chance but doesn’t tick every box. |
| Didn’t Mention It | Tries to lead – possible 3 wide | Best Price is $ 101. She has ability and the $101 I think will be snapped up- she probably can’t win but is rather running for minor money but definitely has her share of talent. |
In summary, the race best suits Shoals, Almanzora and Serena Bay- I want to be with the horses who are fresh here and I’d suggest 2 units on Almanzora and 2 units on Serena Bay @ $3.80 and $4.80 and given the $7 around about Formality have 1 unit if Didn’t Mention It misses the start then it is a at a price where we can “chop out and save on the race.
Last week we hit the Bulls Eye again to take our record to 11 from 17 winning weeks and overall profit to $2865 on these Free Friday Previews. We are also locked in BIG DUKE @ $4.60 which is looking ok as I expect they will start him closer to $3 on the day.
Services Update
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As always good luck and happy punting this week end!!!