After a very long and difficult Randwick Carnival the racing finally returns to Sydney’s best worst track in Rosehill. Reportedly on a good track which is a welcome change and despite the lack of big names there is some excellent racing here on the card with deep races
I was tossing up whether to do race 1 or race 4 – but I’ve decided to go with Race 1 as it offers plenty of angles but also a few of them are marked what I feel are completely the wrong prices.
With a true rail and no recent racing, I’d suggest you want to find midfield or better horses and it should be fairly even and fair with perhaps a slight leaning to horses that will map to come down lanes 3,4,5.
Rosehill Race 1: Fresh For Kids Handicap
| Horse | Comment |
|---|---|
| Silence | Scratched. |
| Madam Moustache | Current Price $13 Bet Now. Her big plus is A Hyeronimus – but her negative is the lack of ability. Not for me despite the smart trial last time. |
| Darhad | Current Price $18 Bet Now. Darhad carries the “heaviest” colours in racing. Like most of the horses in these colours he is slow. He did race OSL last time so some excuse but not for me at all. He needs country to provincial grade. |
| Dissolution | Scratched. |
| Ipso Facto | Current Price $13 Bet Now. Trained by Mark Newnham who is doing a great job. Typical “Gai like” trial under her belt so will handle the Fast tempo here- but for mine it’s not good enough. |
| Leogang | Current Price $13 Bet Now. Comes into this off two soft trials which is not ideal for a fast run race but gets K Jennings who is riding on fire at present- happy to be against him all the same. |
| Lord Cecil | Scratched. |
| Manipulate | Current Price $21 Bet Now. Won a trial recently in horrible figures but gets Josh Parr who for the last 4 weeks has been riding like a busted balloon. Prior to that he was on fire. Gerald’s team are firing but off the 1 trial and lack of any pressure I have to be against him. |
| Poetic Charmer | Current Price $10 Bet Now . A half to the recent $2m horse sold at Easter the horse has trialled well in poor figures. The three trials including the last one at 1000m gives me a better platform than most. Not a winning chance but possible place horse. |
| Siam | Current Price $9 Bet Now. The horse was bravely ridden by Avdulla last start up the fence and the day played out that wasn’t the place to be. Back on firm it looks like he can improve but I think he might want a touch further. Given he was 1st up there on a heavy 9 track that might have sucked his speed away especially being off 1 trial. He is some hope but more place chance for mine. |
| Smart Aint He | Scratched. |
| Virdine | Current price $5.Trialled well some hope. |
| Blonde Intuition | Current Price $5.50 Bet Now. Undefeated in its career to date and recently (24th April) went back to the trials after its 1st up win. That win was off no real platform so it did a great job to win and the figures from the race where great. Massive chance. |
| Envy of All | Current Price $5 Bet Now. This was huge on debut off 2 unsuitable short course trials. It was heavily backed but travelled 4w early and then had to endure sitting OSL to only get run down. It gets a great run here and with Schofield and Cummings partnership currently running at close to 25% strike rate presents as the one to beat. |
| She Knows | Current Price $17 Bet Now. The roughie in the race I’m most interested in. Was ordinary on debut on the wet but then taken back to the dry at Goulburn where it bolted in when a despised roughie. That win was via leading all the race and was only 1000m so that form is hard to take to town- but the fact remains her effort and figures where better than what some of these can produce. |
In Summary, it’s a scuzzy race with a tail- but somehow the bookies have the markets completely wrong as the only winning chances are Blonde Intuition and Envy of All with lesser chances to She Knows and Siam
Whilst I normally have been betting just the 5 units this race is the right one to up the sights with such a big discrepancy in the market. I’m suggesting 8 units on Envy of All- 4 units on Blonde Intuition and 1 unit She Knows
Last Week
We got the cash last week again with Reinforced bolting in and the profit for the year on just these Friday night previews now sits at $2875.
Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners
Good luck and happy punting!!