Racing returns to Rosehill where we find ourselves with a 6m rail which in the past has seen the long-term pattern to see the fence on fire type bias but our last meeting here saw the rail 3m but ideally lanes 5 to 8 where extremely advantaged. Now with the rail going out to 6m that means the better ground should be anywhere from lanes 1 to 3 in the straight.
The race that most interests me from a price point of view is race 5 which is a 3yr old BM 70 race and we only have average speed involved.
McGrath Estate Agents Handicap 1500m:
| Horse | Comment |
|---|---|
| Show ‘Em | Best price $16 bet now. Is 7th up which is a big knock- he is an honest toiler but not for me. |
| Wayanka | Best price $12 bet now. Drawn well and has a good TOF off slow to average tempo so deserves respect. The 7 day back up is a good thing for most horses but I’m not sure on that race last week. |
| Fleeting Stryke | Best price $18 bet now. Gets 3kg off for Brock Ryan but she is drawn ordinary and doesn’t have the speed to cross them. |
| Cordero | Best price $6 bet now. Has a good turn of foot off a slow speed so the shape will suit but he gets Reith and if he goes back like normal I don’t give him much chance and he currently is only $6. |
| Uptown Lad | Best price $19 bet now. Is 1250m Canterbury to 1500m here and that’s not ideal- he also likes to race forward but is a slow gate speed horse – he might have the sharpness to be on speed but has to be vulnerable late. His run 2 ago though gives him genuine ew chance though as he was in the wrong part of the track and that was behind Wayanka. |
| Vega | Best price $21 bet now. He is an overrated horse and not for me. |
| Just Dreaming | Best price $6 bet now. She was huge on speed and gets a big tick with Rachel King taking over here. Whilst tactically Rachael makes mistakes like all jockeys they travel deep into a race for her and from this gate I think she will position up forward of midfield and anything Kris Lees touches at present is performing well. Can win. |
| Picardy Rose | Best price $8bet now. Her run was excellent and eq best of the day at Newcastle – but he now gets Atkins and the get back style in moderate run race is not ideal. It can definitely win as it’s an extremely progressive horse but has some negatives. |
| El Venetian | Best price $11 bet now. Is another 1200m to 1500m but Hyeronimus rides well but this was weak as water when it won the other day so I don’t like the big distance increase for it- no. |
| Crown Him | Best price $23 bet now. Typical A Cummings placement last start when it had no hope and back in grade helps him but on his best he can’t win for mine. |
| Walk the Streets | Best price $8.50 bet now. Gets the meetings best jockey and Sydney Premier trainer and 3rd up for a horse that should be close to on speed are all huge ticks. No fault of the jockey last time when she should have won- this is harder but a genuine chance |
| Ready For Success | Best price $81 bet now. 1st up off the one 1030m trial doesn’t sound great but D Payne is a good horseman although placement is another matter. If it had had 2 trials it would be a major chance. If it ran to the Fiery Trial run last prep when 2nd up that would win this. The best roughie. |
| Volpe | Best price $9.50 bet now. Is hard in the market and has been doing well in the weaker Southern districts. I don’t like it at all and for mine the distance is the issue this grade. |
| Rosseito | Scratched |
In summary as they normally are it’s an open race with a few chances.
Betting wise I like the race and would suggest 3 units just dreaming @ $6, 3 units on Walk the Streets @ $8.50 and 1 unit each way $81 for Ready for Success.
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Good luck and happy punting!!!