The Lakeside circuit improved to a Soft 5 overnight and with a cool clear morning is expected to race all day in that range. This rail position on the inner Lakeside circuit would normally favour those racing close to the pace but have assessed the form as simply that today rather than pre-meditate the pattern. That said, obviously monitor early racing and can reassess as we go.
BEST: Race 7: #4 BARBIE’S BOY
VALUE: Race 6: #6 CANNOT BE SERIOS
Race 1: 5-4-3-7
Going to start the day with a gamble on 5 MY MOTHER SAYS – most of these under-exposed, especially at 1400m but this Peter Morgan trained colt was $11 to $6 resuming off 3 trials at 1400m at Pakenham when it all went wrong, severely hampered at the start then forced wide without cover on a heavy 9. Looked very one paced so love to see Baster roll forward and give a sight around $14. 4 MULK is the obvious having had 2 runs at 1400m and will be the on-pace runner here after they changed tactics that way last time but can’t take $3 it. 3 BELLEGRANO wants the bigger Sandown track but preferred Hillside to Lakeside. The Donald Classic form (2nd there ) will always hold up. 7 WINDSOR next ahead of the green 6 COSMIC IMPACT through the same Seymour race last time.
Suggested: The one scratching leaves this as a pay 1-2 race now but have a crack at odds each-way 5 MY MOTHER SAYS, if we win, plenty to play with, if off the mark, we haven’t done much damage and confidence grows later anyway.
Race 2: 5-2-16-12
The most interesting runner of the day already well found in markets is 5 NEW HORIZONS, the first Frankel to race in Victoria, but gives away six months in age after being bred in England, foaled in Japan before getting to D K Weir. We saw him ok (no early speed) in a May 11 Burrumbeet jumpout (and well done Ballarat Turf Club for recording, naming and showing all district trials and jumpouts). He wears a nasal strip on his Oz debut. Don’t want to unload on him but then not on others either. Reckon 2 DEADLY CHOICES is big overs around $13. 16 CASTLEFIELD LASS is fit and rolls forward getting C Williams here. Respecting 12 TROJAN STORM off good jumpout and 15 WENNER on debut.
Suggested bet: Couple 5 favourite New Horizons with other numbers here in multiple quinellas and trifectas.
Race 3: 10-5-1-7
Typical of the day – very evenly graded races but big market change this morning with favourite MAMZELLE TESS out. 10 DANCE FOR ME was five weeks between runs for inexperienced 3kg claimer last time when seriously held up from 500m to 200m. Now gets premiership leader Beau Mertens still with a 1.5kg claim and reckon best gamble here. 5 CONCUBINE was very good resuming on the synthetic but 1300m short of best trip so encouraging it was. 1 DULVERTON gets a claim for Mitch Aitken (off back of good Wangaratta Tuesday returns) and is well graded here. Respect 7 CHAMPAGNE READY (Williams).
Suggested: Keen to play 10 Dance For Me each-way here.
Race 4: 2-4-7-11
There are only 3 winning hopes here. Going 2 GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY who I hope is ridden with normal Team Williams aggression on pace over staying trips. Resumed in nice style Flemington over 1800m, has Mertens and the $7.5 best has gone. 4 KELLSTORM was terrific first up at The Bool on a heavy then fair not flat over 1600m at Flemington. I like that Weir has stepped him straight to 2100m. And of course 7 SAYED rounds the top trio out. Well-grounded off the back of two NSW runs over ground for Waller and how punters go wrong working with Rob Hickmott (Team Williams), Weir and Waller in a mid-week staying contest. Next best 11 HIGH LAGO
Suggested: Roll with 2 GRANDDUKEOFTUSCANY straight out.
Race 5: 4-1-2-5
Again even. 4 INVICTUM DOMINA has won a Tatura trial since an excusable performance before a spell where she was found to have a slow recovery rate but also mucus detected on scope. More advantaged if track racing leaderish – which we think it can do of course Lakeside rail out. 1 ST SWITHUNS DAY was horrible on a heavy last time off back good chasing win resuming. Better track and pattern key to chances off freshen up. 2 MISS BENEDETTA might be the too obvious for Weir, racing forward and just never races badly, out to 1200m now. 5 BLITHE BELLE was good resuming, a good sign considering she didn’t “come up’ in the spring.
Suggested: stay alive in quaddie taking 1-2-3-4-5-9
Race 6:
In the week John McEnroe gave a stinging critique of Margaret Court’s ill-informed same sex marriage comments, it would be hard to ignore 6 CANNT BE SERIOS (and if you don’t mind – throw those blinkers on). Resuming run since Michael transferred to brothers Freedman was a pass mark but a race that passed him by. Now to 1300m suits and blinkers added . As they do 15 DON’TBABLYON who will race on speed and gets the Mertens form and claim. 12 HETUKA ZARSHO is your run on insurance., include 1 LAUCHETTI and 9 SOHOOL in quaddies.
Suggested: working around the blinkers on pair 6 CANNOT BE SERIOUS and 15 DON’T BABYLON, can back both in open markets and multiples.
Race 7: 4-8-11-14
Very keen here on 4 BARBIE’S BOY. Thought it could run well at The valley Saturday and they take the easier option here. And an outstanding option for a horse ready to peak off two good runs in and with the class to have run with 4 lengths in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas. Again I am working against on pace-Lakeside theory horses and including 8 MY PAISANN who was terrific resuming in Australia off over a year out and has competed in NZ black type races. 11 ST FRANCO has the upside for Weir while 14 WILLI WILLI is better graded here and gets Williams.
Suggested: Play heavily 4 BARBIE’S BOY.
Race 8: 3-4-8-1
3 VANTAGGIO is the safest options but must include 4 DONT WE LOVE IT as it was unlucky behind it two runs ago and the market discrepancy is too severe. 8 EXACTING is honest and has the Price? Oliver combo but respecting 1 EL LUCHADOR for talented kiwi horseman Mark Brooks, horse resuming gelded here with winkers and the highest rated runner in race. Would be putting in 6 BUT IT’S TRUE and 10 LADY PROVACATEUR in wider quaddies
Suggested: back 3 VANTAGGIO to win, save each-way 4 DON’T WE LOVE IT.