Bruce Clark’s full preview and best bets for Flemington

Andrew Noblet trainer of Tell The Truth.

Back to Flemington, rail out 6 and will be its usual Good 4 improving (despite rain forecast – this track just dries better than anywhere else), but let us hope it’s a result turn around on the last meeting here where it was an average $20 winner on the day. And five of those winners return De Little Engine (R4), Zourkhan (R5), Guangzhou (R6), Sovereign Nation (R7) and Overstep (R8) from the May 20 rampage. Rail out is no disadvantage to those near speed and fence – normally.

BEST: Race 7 16 OAK DOOR (Scratched)

VALUE:  Race 6 12 TELL THE TRUTH

Race 1: 2-10-6-5

2 LONE EAGLE has been well found by long players who got as much as $3 first market. A lot to like about Sandown debut, wide, bit green, found line, gap to 3rd – all ok, but as low as $2.4 at time of writing is unders for mine but not denied a legitimate winning chance. 10 SIA, the well named $1.1m yearling (out of Hips Don’t Lie) is another winner from the Lindsay Park juvenile army and can only improve off slow out debut with experience. 6 ROYAL PHOENIX put away after ok debut and 5 PREZADO next best off sound debut.

Suggested: 2 LONE EAGLE is too heavily backed for mine already and if you missed price, stay out. Try 10 SIA at the value unless market adjusts race day.

Race 2: 1-3-2-12

Keen to take the gamble on 1 SAMOVARE. WA form has always stacked up well in Victoria, especially of late and this has black type form (G3) where most of these will struggle to get there. If you wanted another push, the Tatura trial was a sign she is ready to go first up 1400m. Not much between 3 SOHO RUBY and 2 PEDRENA but doubt they reverse placings on Caulfield. That’s it for winning chances but keen top pick. 12 MISS SISKA might be the suited leader at 1400m and form good enough and 8 SWAMPLAND only other chance.

Suggested:  SAMOVARE has a touch of class on these. Straight out $3.40 bet now

Race 3: 1-4-3-2

Good straight race, like 1 HUSSON EAGLE with good record up straight but the inside draw no spoil for it. 3 DIAMOND OASIS (ex Weir) was excellent first up for new stable in same pre run for this but the big query is 4 MILITARY REIGN – in good WA hands of Darren McAuliffe and has run in strong black type at home. Well placed with Aitken 3kg claim. Respecting obviously favourite 2 SANTA ANA LANE, form says yes, market tight enough, looking for better value.

Suggested: Something each-way 1 HUSSON EAGLE $2.90 bet now, small gamble win 4.

Race 4: 1-5-6-3

1 DE LITTLE ENGINE is a true Flemington horse, five of his 9 career wins here and though his last two wins were at 2800m and 3200m (beating two subsequent jumpers), he is suitably placed with claim. 5 GOATHLAND won 3rd up last campaign as he is here and with Mertens is well enough away from toppie at weights. 6 GRAND DREAMER comes in form but preferred on more affected ground, 3 FALAGO will run better on a track where he has run two seconds at the 2500m.

Suggested: Either 1 or 5 wins, Take quinella.

Race 5: 8-1-11-6

Almost impossible betting race and waiting on what English Irish Derby runner 1 KILIMANJARO will do first up here. If he wins – no surprise – if he runs well – ditto – do you want to back him? Not yet. No fluke about win fresh of #8 ZOURKHAN (abeit it $31) – now around $3.9 – but beat 11 PORTION CONTROL well enough to suggest 1800m same track next time suits. 4 ORMITO gets blinkers now and 6 AMRELA runs well home track, doesn’t win enough.

Suggested: Not suggesting anything here unless you have convictions about #1 KILIMANJARO

Race 6: 12-4-3-2

Tough start to quaddie – go wide. At the value going 12 TELL THE TRUTH who was good ducking and diving behind the brave 4 GUANGZHOU last time here. Key chances 3 DOCKER PAV and 2 KIWIA come back to own age – big plus. Nothing wrong with how 1 ALL OUT OF LOVE is going or 14 WINDBERN is shaping up. Be putting 7 ROYAL ORDER and 8 SOLO HEART in quaddie.

Suggested:  Load up first leg quaddie

Race 7: 16-6-13-4

Looks widest race of the day but making 16 OAK DOOR best and best value. On limit, terrific return, last time 1400m win a G3 against own age. But away from that many hopes. 6 SOVEREIGN NATION has found winning form quickly this campaign. Thought 13 RADIPOLE did more than enough first Aussie run. Respecting 4 LORESHO first time out for Weir at this trip. 10 AIRALIGN has good first-up record

Suggested: good gamble at the odds each-way 16 OAK DOOR

Race 8: 3-1-4-7

Think 3 DAM READY one to beat first-up here – another off back of good Tatura trial but also good group class performances. Has always promised better than this grade and off a 72 rating with Mertens claims, gets chance to deliver. 1 NASDEX is better drawn out here. 4 INVINCIBLE AL likewise will improve off first-up run. 7 LESSYD has started again off poor campaign and has blinkers again.

Suggested: Straight out 3 DAM READY $4.80 bet now

Race 9: 6-2-18-5

The trick here is assessing 18 PATTERN first-up off long break but obviously talented. Otherwise 6 NIKITAS gets good run here, fitter for two Weir runs and sound value. 2 REWARDING EFFORT has to overcome horror draw but better placed grade and distance wide at Flemington if gets some luck. Respecting Adelaide form of 5 SCHISM primarily ahead of 4 ROSELLI STING.

Suggested: 6 Nikitas each-way $6.50 bet now while monitoring 18 Pattern moves.

 

 

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