With torrential Rain about this weekend in NSW the return to Randwick looks very tricky as we know at the best of times in the middle of a heat wave they will put up a wet track so I suppose now that we are in winter and had some serious rain the meeting could be in trouble.
As my speciality is NSW racing I thought the best race to focus on was the first race where there will be no clear pattern.
In recent times (27th May) we raced on a soft and true trail which is normally hard the fence but Saturday we find a 3m rail and a heavy surface.
I’d suggest with the small field and inexperienced horses that the fence will be the place to be early but I can’t stress enough that from midway through the card you can almost put a line through horses drawn inside as this place nicknamed “the swamp” by some will cut out badly and it could be a case of down the outside.
Race 1 Club Redfern Plate:
| Horse | Comment |
|---|---|
| Florid | Best price $6.50 bet now. His form on paper looks good but his figures off last prep are very ordinary. Being a Commands they can improve massive from one prep to the next but I thought he will need the run and need further ground if he is to make the grade. |
| Pymble | Best price $10 bet now. He was 3w on speed in a slowly run race last time and did an ok job to win and his run prior was beauty- however he gets Chad Lever and I just worry his form is not good enough to compete here but I must say the price is juicy as he has race fitness. |
| Evict | Best price $3.80 bet now. First up heavy track is not ideal but has had 2 trials in Feb and then a short break and 2 further trials so he has good education. One of Australia’s top 2 jockey’s rides but being a Sepoy he is going to need lots of help to get through the conditions. He trialled better than Florid recently but my concern is his action and I’m saying he won’t handle the wet track. |
| Champagne Cuddles | Best price $2.80 bet now. Somehow is the favourite but I thought her only trial was average (times no good also) and with the 1 trial she is short enough. The form through her first up win is suspect and I think she will be in more trouble than a sword swallower with hiccups @ the 200m and for mine she is a risk. Bjorn is renowned for having the fittest horse in a race so I have to respect her being the only Saturday winner in the race but for mine she is there to be beaten. |
| Lipizzan | Best price $4.00 bet now. If they had put blinkers on we could have paid off the national debt with this thing- She was fantastic last start running well and winning and whilst it was only Canterbury which is generally only form good enough for Canterbury I think she won with plenty in hand. My issue is D Panya who is a not the best judge of speed and if she overdoes it in front as whilst she has lead in her last 3 starts she is not a fast gate speed horse and she could easily get sucked along going faster than she likes. Can win and I think it’s a good price. |
| Exceed the Night | Best price $17 bet now. A big price and comes out of the Newcastle run where Pymble won- visually it looked good but if it was any good it should have won. Not for me having started $9.50 in a standard Newcastle race vs Pymble who was at $2.60. |
Overall, it’s a fairly common race and you won’t have to be a superstar to win. Lipizzan for mine is too big a price and for mine if it gets the right ride it will win. Suggest 4 units on her at the $4.20 and given the price I think 1 unit on Pymble @ the $10 is a good saver. Champagne Cuddles is the proven Saturday horse but unless she is a mud eater I think she needs to do more.
Last week we got the Chocolates when the selections ran the Quinella and whilst they were both $7 and $9 it was a slightly better result had the 2nd horse had won. This ensures the profit heads north and hopefully we start the day tomorrow with one of the 2 horses above winning
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Good luck and happy punting!!!