Luke Murrell Rosehill Gardens race 4 preview

Upscale is Luke Murrell’s horse to beat tomorrow. Photo courtesy Daryl Duckworth.

Racing returns to Rosehill and a True rail with some rain about this weekend and traditionally this means the fence will be off and lanes 3,4,5 generally will find most of the winners.

Plenty of deep races on the card and whilst they can take turn I decided to focus on a race with a up and coming horse in UPSCALE for the Kris Lees yard this week.

Race 4 on the card is a 1200m Bm 85 and outside of upscale her main opposition Test The World and its connections will I’m sure have stakes ambitions down the track.

The Race prior to scratchings had huge speed but now vie marked the tempo above average which is a great situation as it gives them all a chance but normally exposes the horses out of their grade.

Rosehill Race 4:

Horse Comment
Upscale Best price $4.00 bet now. I’m positive will be much shorter come race day. She is easily the best horse in the race but the price does reflect two risks you have to take with her today. The first is she has never won past 1100 and today’s event is 1200m. Her only start at 1200m she was beaten 4 lengths (when perhaps had enough). She handles soft ground but heavy can be a different story. In her favour, she was huge 1st up in the worst part of the track (on what would have been more testing than this). I’ve no doubt she is stakes grade and the price justifies the risk. The draw is a touch tricky but with genuine speed I expect her to slot in behind the speed and then swing into the right lanes.
Feelin The Love Best price $11 bet now. Stablemate to Upscale and visually looked good hitting the line well. She was restrained (too much) last time and then ridden 4w by Angland so I can see the jockey change being a positive – however for mine she is midweek grade horse with a Saturday grade ranking- she is a place chance as the race has a long tail and if you got $4 place she is some value.
Test The World Best price $3.50 bet now. Is favourite and undefeated this prep which is plus. I think she may drift though as she has had the A1 Position In Run (PIR) all 3 of those runs and she has never in her life seen a fast run race. She was deadly with the PIR last time off a slow speed and all you can do is win- but now she has to face a heavy track (Testa Rossa stock only so so on it) and chasing from further out. She has done nothing special in her wins figures wise so whilst she can win due to lack of opposition she needs to lift a for this.
Allez Chival Best price $9.50 bet now. She has been getting fitter and now gets the best rider of horses on a wet track I have seen in a long while in R King which is a huge plus for her. She will lead here and could give some check at big odds. Her issue is from 11 goes she has never won Saturday grade albeit she has never had a quality jockey like Rachael King (superstar if she can get her tactics right). She was forced to sit OSL (outside lead) last start which is suicide and as long as she leads them and doesn’t sit OSL she can run a place. 1200m is horrible for this horse though- although the wet track is ok.
Foreign Affair Best price is $10 bet now. A good trainer is Henry Dwyer but this will come out for sure. It’s out graded and never done a thing on the conditions.
All In The Reflexs Best price $11 bet now. Not sure what to do with this thing. It’s the fastest horse in the race but Kathy never rides them “ugly” or unconventional when needed so I see it just bowling along with Allez Chival. It was poorly ridden 3w Forward of midfield last start in an even tempo race. Its only won at 1400m and 1600m and being by Curlin they are desperate for Rock Hard Tracks not heavy. The Stable is going well but have to take it on. She is a good honest horse all the same.
Nonpareil Best price $8 bet now. Was greatly flattered by finding the bias last time in lane 11. Has won on heavy tracks and firm tracks and has won on fast tempo and walking tempo so ticks most boxes. Whilst Atkins will be champion apprentice this season for mine he makes way too many mistakes even for an apprentice and I just don’t back his rides when riding against the big boys as he seems to get into too many bad situations. The horse has some claims but taking it on.
Plenty To like Scratched
Validate Best price $8.50 bet now. Most Duporth stock handle the wet but this has had 1 go on a slow 7 at Gawler for a 3-length defeat. She was 3 wide on speed last start to win easily but does draw the fence on the map and that could be not ideal. She has always had ability but I’ve not got her as winning chance.
Just Stellar Best price $26 bet now. This horse gets mud put into its feed bin instead of oats it loves it that much but it’s still outclassed.

 

Overall if Upscale runs the trip and handles the conditions she only needs 6/10 ride from Bowman to win here. I’d suggest 5 units on her at the $4.00 now as I have her $2.60 fav currently. She will sit 2 to 3 lengths off the speed and look the winner at the 100m to go mark and should hold on. If it walks the last 100m Then Test The World will get it late so happy to have 2 units on it best tote not the current fixed as I think it will get out.

 

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Good luck and happy punting!!!

 

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