The Everest preview part 2…..By Luke Murrell

The Everest preview part 2…..By Luke Murrell

Last Friday we looked at the horses that where hard in the market of THE EVEREST field and today I thought we should look at a few that haven’t been mentioned and a few others down the list that are worth consideration and a few more that are kidding themselves

 

Malaguerra, Black Heart Bart and Terravista Currently $26

Whilst some could argue Malaguerra deserves a crack surely Terravista even being mentioned as a starter can’t be right. He has been a warrior but if people think he is in our top 12 sprinters then our ranks are very embarrassing. Pass. Malaguerra is a good honest sprinter but let’s be honest his ratings and form indicate he is a Group 2 horse and whilst he has won Group 1 races surely we have better horses who are on the rise versus this bloke who as a 6yr old has to be dropping off in his ratings. In terms of Black Heart Bart there is only so many times you can go to the well and whilst he has been a champion his recent efforts suggest he is not the same horse and realistically he is a 1400m horse and not an elite 1200m. His only win a Group 1 1200m event was the Goodwood back in May 2016- a beauty but not the right horse for this race.

Fell Swoop- currently $26

Owned by Sheik Dowling and a large group of people he has been a ripper for connections. However has been announced that he is going to be a starter for the race and I’m staggered he was even thought about. The horse has not won a race anywhere since April 2016 and then it was only a Group 2 in Brisbane beating those champions Didntcostalot and Artlee. Inglis does a lot of good things but surely this isn’t the best sprinter they have to represent their company. Lucky Inglis has plenty of money as they certainly won’t be getting a return From Fell Swoop.

English: Currently $15

Surely the TAB must be dreaming – she has never won a race as an older horse at 1200m despite 5 tries- she is a horse who can’t handle a 1200m race shape and in a Championship race like this is no hope- in my opinion the TAB have kissed away their $600k entry fee. The lucky 10 people who win the competition to be owners for the day will have a wonderful experience but I can’t see them getting the prizemoney.

 

Some Left Field Horses That Should be Considered

 

THE TIN MAN- not priced and Limato (currently $26)

If you’re not familiar with overseas racing then you won’t have a clue about these two but I can tell you both have legitimate chances- there is not much between them but personally I lean to the TIN MAN as he has beaten Limato a couple of times now – but both horses are genuine sprinting stars with good records but more importantly they can run fast time.  They would pick the majority of our sprinters up and carry them.

 

Brave Smash- currently not priced

He is a horse we at Australian Bloodstock purchased recently and whilst it is hard to line up Japanese form to Australian form – we believe he would be a genuine top 2 chance if he gains a start in the race. His profile in Japan is as a 1200 to 1800m horse but he is just a genuine Group 1 grade horse we believe here and is highly adaptable. The faster they go the better for him but he has a stunning turn of foot and can absorb huge amounts of pressure. He has run 1.08 flat for 1200m and that was after coming back from a 1600m run 3 weeks prior. Our research suggests though that he is a sprinter and given the times he has run when compared against horses like Maurice and co. he is a genuine winning chance.

Supido- currently $101

I’m surprised this bloke is not much closer in the market. He started against horses like English and Redzel but the heavy track dulled his sprint in the Challenge and then he still started $7 in the Galaxy when again running into a very heavy track. If he got a soft to dead track he is a genuine chance at big odds- he doesn’t have a huge media profile so getting a slot might be hard but he is better than most who will start.

 

Whilst it is now outside the control of Racingnsw having sold off the slots, in my opinion the best possible field and the most competitive field from all the horses mentioned would be as follows but obviously 5 places are already filled of which I don’t have 4 in my final field:

 

If we want the best available field then this is as close as we could hope for – with the possibility of the flying American Filly LADY AURELIA – who is a confirmed non-starter the only other one possible of making the race stronger. It would provide interest from all the globe and importantly it would be the hottest race possible. What supporters of the race don’t want to see is it made up of “has beens” who are not competitive

It will be very fascinating to see what happens in the coming 8-10 weeks as the horses slowly get locked away in the remaining slots.

 

Horse Comment
Chautauqua Whilst I give him no hope- he is the reigning champ at the track and distance and for marketing appeal deserves a spot even though if they get the right field he couldn’t possible win.
Winx Unfortunately won’t happen but just imagine if she showed up fresh and ready to rock and roll. Whilst we wouldn’t wish it on her – if she happened to get a slight injury early in her preparation where Waller couldn’t get the work into her- perhaps they would look at keeping her fresh and giving it a crack?
Vega Magic He is a left field one but he has the ratings and still the upside and he could win the race and hence deserves a slot.
Clearly Innocent Has Been transformed under Kris Lees and the big open track would be right up his alley. He has a cult following and id include him.
Brave Smash Would give the race some Japanese flavour but he arrives with the ratings good enough to run top 3 and win the race.
The Tin Man The best sprinter in Europe over 6f and he would be a genuine winning chance if either of them came.
Redkirk Warrior He showed in the Newmarket what he could do fresh and if he was trained for the 1200m specifically he could be deadly off the hot tempo.
Supido The up and coming sprinter who is lightly raced- if he found a dead surface he could give them a real shake up.
Limato He has claims as the best sprinter in Europe but there is nothing between him and THE TIN MAN.
Takedown Takedown is unique in that when set for his races he seems to perform best. He has 2-3 1200m ratings that are elite and id include him as he is a tough on speed horse.
Tulip I’m surprised no one has mentioned this filly. For mine she was the best 2yr old filly of last season and one of a very few who ran equivalent to the older horses. The conditions of this Everest Race do set it up to suit the 3yr olds and given she has already shown A) she can run fast time and will be suited under the conditions I thought she would have been the first one picked. She should have won the Diamond and then was slaughtered in the Golden Slipper in my opinion. She is the horse I would have as favourite.
Gunnison If we are going to put the best 2yr old filly of last season then the best colt or gelding deserves his slot as well. He has been sold to Hong Kong for a good price. But again he was about the only boy all season to prove he could run equivalent to the older horses and given maturity and also under the conditions of the race he would deserve his spot to make it a red hot competitive race.

 

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au  as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.