CAULFIELD July 15.
Rail goes out to 10m from 7m (confused what happened to the 3m-6m-9m) regular track shifts but nonetheless it raced fairly (tempo related a fortnight ago and much of that form represented again here) but history shows the further you push out Caulfield, the better the run on wide horses suited. Not predicting that just noting. Rated a good 4 race morning, should race with just a touch of give but the predicted rain didn’t arrive only 0.5mm last 24 hours.
BEST: Race 7 #7 SUPIDO $1.75 bet now
VALUE: Race 5 #12 BLING DYNASTY $5.50 bet now
Race 1: 5-3-14-4
So you have to line up with 3 DATA POINT as your first favourite (back to 1400m). Yes back to a BM78 and back from 1600m but racing pattern is hardly enticing at these odds. Yes can win and you get Mertens (no claim anymore) but I’d rather back C Williams on 5 ORIENT LINE, last start winner, excuses when stood flat footed previously and competitive Data Point prior. Value in 14 SPEARHEAD, jumped better last time, went forward and won, expect same from outside gate. 4 VIOLENT SNOW is in best form around this level, caught wide last time and battled away.
SUGGESTED: Like 5 ORIENT LINE $5.50 bet now and Williams against Mertens and the favourite.
Race 2: 1-2-7-10
Ok it was Moe on a Saturday but Godolphin’s 1 BANDIPUR was most impressive resuming spacing them by 8 lengths. Has Mertens and track was soft 7 so any more rain no issue. Was a fan of the 2 TAKEMEHOMEMISTER at Bendigo and the race in general. Am sure can measure up and is over the odds. 7 I DID IT AGAIN has been well found in betting from $9 down in some markets off back Pakenham trial which showed promise. 10 ALJAWZAA was good Sandown resuming and has Williams. 4 CHIYOU has shown good natural ability Caulfield jumpouts.
SUGGESTED: They don’t win like 1 BANDIPUR and not run well next time $2.60 bet now
Race 3: 3-1-6-4
Reckon 3 MOONLITE’S CHOICE wants the 1200m now and has Williams but this is wide race for the 3YO fillies. Never underestimating the Tassie form around 1 HOT DIPPED and is well in after the claim. 6 ABRIOLA is in fine form through the grades (has Mertens) and goes in while 4 MOONLOVER is last start winner who can measure up here.
SUGGESTED: Tricky betting race but if you combine Weir and Williams you get 3 MOONLITE’S CHOICE $3.60 bet now and maybe the winner.
Race 4: 1-6-4-11
1 KIWIA has shown all the tactical versatility and ability required to shoot through the grades and after the 3kg claim should win again. 6 MEAT RADERS is in good hands but only gets 2kg off top pick. 4 ROYAL ORDER has a win over Kiwia (and a last start loss) – better tactical plan may pay off here. A lot of form ties in here but must think it still points to Kiwia.
SUGGESTED: Stick with 1 KIWIA $2.20 bet now
Race 5: 12-4-5-1
Just liked the run (6 weeks since good return) of 12 BLING DYNASTY. Williams is with it here and though not that well placed at ratings and weights but fairly evenly matched on form this lot and like the gamble. 4 LUCKY PADDY is ready to go now for Weir after 2 runs in. 5 SHOW A STAR missed last week controversially but should roll to front here. 1 ONPICALO is racing out of its BM (hence claim) but Caulfield and 1700m looks attractive – hence it’s here. Likewise this is the right trip for 3 COLDSTONE.
SUGGESTED: Something each-way 12 BLING DYNASTY $5.50 bet now
Race 6: 1-3-4-6
Much of a re-run here for July 1 contenders but reckon with claim 1 REVOLVING DOOR the best option. Makes own luck and in well but respecting 3 THROSSELL who resumed in that race and it was a good 9th. Liked 4 MY PAISANN leading into long odds win last time and no reason can’t keep form going. 6 ENIGMAN gets winkers now after running well in the likely form race. Never underestimating 2 NIKITAS, wide last time, given little hope, can over-race, reckon Weir may have worked that out.
SUGGESTED: #1 REVLOVING DOOR $4.40 bet now has come back well and tough since gelding.
Race 7: 7-5-1-8
This just looks all made for 7 SUPIDO. Mentioned in some areas as a recommended Everest slot contender and does have Group 1 form. Should put these away. Going to start close to the red now though that 6 CHOCOLATE HOLIC comes out. 5 MURT THE FLIRT can run well home track and 1 LORD OF THE SKY trialled liked he always does, let’s hope he runs up to it Saturday.
SUGGEST: 7 SUPIDO going places and better than these $1.75 bet now
Race 8: 1-2-6-9
Just can’t get my head around this race. A moderate Saturday mares race where nothing much would surprise. Going with 1 BEATNIKS fresh for Matthew Dale and Craig Williams and so well placed in this. Note Blinkers off and fresh record good enough. 2 SULLIVAN BAY was good in controlled tempo race here a fortnight ago. Nothing wrong with the form 6 DIVINE CHILLS who at least bring competitive winning credentials.
SUGGESTED: Tough but gambling the way of 1 BEATNIKS $7 bet now
Race 9: 8-12-3-13
There is nothing leaping off the page here. But 8 SCHISM backs up for Mertens from last Saturday when beat 12 VITAL IMPORTANCE, who was able to position more competitively in the run, and they can do it again here. Like the way race sets up for 5 AIRALIGN and early betting support says others have thought same way. Williams will get best out of 13 HERE TO THERE, come through same race that saw returning Nesbo blow them out (it runs race 5 for reference). No shock if 1 KENJORWOOD improves.
SUGGESTED: Sticking with 8 SCHISM $3.30 bet now and Mertens.
QUADDIE
1-2-3-4-6
7
1-2-6-7-9
5-8-12-13
$50 for 100%