True winter racing, cold, windy, a soft 6 but Hillside the rails comes back to 4m from 12m and as usual wide run-on no disadvantage, if not expected. Oh, and Williams and Mertens have decent books of rides.

BEST BET: Race 8 #6 ALWARD  $3.5 bet now

BEST VALUE: Race 2 #1 VALIANT GREEN  $7 bet now

Race 1: 5-8-7-14

Excellent country debut by 5 TAN TAT TRUSTING who gets Williams and winkers now coming to town and going to 1600m. Lost a plate and returned with an injury to the right eye after funding trouble mid race and again bumped at the 200m. 8 BELLA MIA looks as though 1600m will suit and grounded for it now fourth time up. Liked the Melbourne debut 7 YESIDO and has experienced over much longer in Queensland. 14 THE BANANA STAND has been good two 1600ms runs of late at $19 and $21. Can make a claim but can remember last city win for Stan Tsaikos.

SUGGESTED:  5 TAN TAT TRUSTING to get Williams and us away   $3.4 bet now

Race 2: 1-9-6-8

Impressive on debut going with 1 VALIANT CHOICE who was slow out and still got the job done, now has winkers. The market already telling us the well-bred (well owned) 9 WASSERGEIST will run well on debut for Mertens. 6 PERUGGIA (Williams) was impressive breaking through against older horses by a big margin. 8 SLY CHOICE carries an impressive pedigree and has shown ability in jumpouts.

SUGGESTED: Tricky with first starters playing a role but believing in 1 VALIANT GREEN.  $7 bet now

Race 3: 1-2-7-3

Least attractive betting race of the day. 1 RECALCULATE is back from Sydney where had a tough run. After the claim is well placed against this opposition. 2 PAKAYA PRINCE more advantaged by the ground than was when ran well the last start. 7 IT’S A SHAME BILLY rarely wins but has rarely had Williams. 3 FIRE AGATE  rarely runs poorly.

Race 4: 10-7-2-8

Ok so 2 EMINENT SON beat 7 EAT DESSERT FIRST last time, withstood protest and there is a 1.5kg favour to the runner-up there. But that also form ties in with 10 INNOCENT LILY who over-raced when EDF ran over it then was difficult in barriers, settled back and hit the line well last time on synthetic so going its way here. The spruik was there (mostly post-race) for 8 EURACK on debut and while the draw reads poorly, this is the dog leg corner and wide in straight no problem here.

SUGGESTED: good race, think 10 INNOCENT LILY is a good gamble.  $15 bet now

Race 5: 13-1-10-4

Wow, the capacity field for a 2400m race and not surprisingly finding Weir and Williams to find 13 HIGH LAGO as the top pick but will need some manoeuvrings to get the job down. 1 KAWABATA has to give it 2kg after the claim but absolutely flying this preparation (off residual fitness). 10 BIT OF A  LAD (Weir) also draws out but maintains form through long preparation.  4 KING VALOUR has raced well since coming from NZ where is a 2400m winner.

SUGGESTED:  Many chances, 13 HIGH LAGO on top.  $5.5 bet now

Race 6: 16-8-1-1

Though Quaddie leg but form around 16 NINA RULES reads even better after Swampland last weekend. Sure need luck from alley but this will be a case of the race with the horse getting best luck winning. 1 CANNOT BE SERIOUS has formed to beat back to BM64, just not totally convinced. 8 PLUS EEFRONTE won well last start but was entitled too but gets good draw and Williams to make it happen again here. 12 PIPED ABOARD has been costly for punters but still, has scope to find the best ability and this is right race for that.

SUGGESTED: keep alive in quaddie and something 16 NINA RULES.   $6.5 bet now

Race 7: 16-13-11-5

Again a big number for the quaddie and top pick here and again get Williams who was with this horse’s last start and ran well from the back and this looks ideal for 16 PRECIOUS JOURNEY. Stable with hot strike rate also at moment.  13 ALL DAY EVERY DAY is maintained a long run of competitive form and rarely gets credit. Claim a positive (on paper). 11 CRYSTAL KINGDOM is now putting it together and 5 DUKE OF OZ (a Kiwi) is ready at odds.

SUGGESTED: Like this – 16 PRECIOUS JOURNEY  $3.8 bet now

Race 8: 6-5-8-12

Was hard to miss the debut here of 6 ALWARD, straight to 1800m and is the one to beat. Gear change on 5 THE WILLBYE may explain slightly below expected performance of last time here. 8 SACRED THEME has Williams and now in winning form while 12 SCHOLARLY will give bold sight, late season three-year-old against this lot attractive.

SUGGESTED: If 6 ALWARD runs up to Aussie debut, should win.  $3.5 bet now

QUADDIE:

1-4-10-13

1-8-12-16

2-5-6-13-16-17

5-6

$96 for 50%