Adam Campton’s preview and best bets @ Warwick Farm

Track: Soft 6 (Should get an upgrade)

Rail Position: +5m 1000m-W/Post; + 3m Remainder; +5m in 1400m Chute

 

Best Bet: Race 3 #3 Mariquita  $3.9 bet now

 Value Bet: Race 2 #5 Kaffka  $26 bet now

 

Race 1 – 12:40 PM HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

 

No. 2 Cuba resumes after shown nice ability in his first prep against some pretty smart animals. His two recent trials have been good and from barrier three, he should get every chance. No. 1 Al Mah Haha attacked the line well on debut at this track. The stable will have him fitter for this, but I am a bit worried that he will be attacking the line when it’s all over. No. 4 I’m A Legend is a debutant from the Les Bridge stable who has been showing above average ability at the trials. I expect him to get back and attack the line strongly late.

 

Back the 2 each way  $8 bet now

 

Race 2 – 1:20 PM HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

 

This is a cracking race and I think we will be adding a number of horses to our black book after this maiden.No. 5 Kaffka finds a very strong race on debut, but don’t be surprised if this filly ran a huge race at good odds. If they go hard up front then she will be running on very strongly from the back of the field. Nice animal. No. 1 Alizee showed that she was well above average in her first prep, especially when she ran second behind, Tulip in the Magic Night. The recent trial was pretty to watch and she is going to win some very nice races, but I am happy to let her go today because I think she is under the odds at her current quote ($1.80). No. 3 Milanese Girl has had two nice trials leading into this first-up run and I think this filly has really developed into a nice horse this time in. She will get a gun run behind the speed and I think this distance is perfect first-up.

 

back the 5 each way  $26 bet now

 

 

Race 3 – 2:00 PM BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

 

No. 3 Mariquita has been very good in both runs back this prep and she will really appreciate the drop in grade today. She speaks now and I think J Collett will suit this animal. No. 10 Luiza was pretty poor first-up, but I am happy to give her another chance because she is fitter and this filly does have good ability on her day.No. 2 Single And Free is a lightly raced mare who did enough first-up at Hawkesbury. This horse might need another run, but I always respect this gun trainer when she brings a horse to town.

 

Back the 3 to win  $3.9 bet now

 

Race 4 – 2:35 PM BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

 

No. 9 Hurricane Harbour is a lightly raced stayer who steps up in grade after winning well at Gosford last start. He should get a lovely run from the good draw and I think the distance should suit this horse. No. 4 Bastia is the one to beat after his tough effort at Canterbury last Wednesday when finishing second behind the smart Chatelard. No. 5 More Moet won well last start and the pre post money suggests that he must be working well at home.

 

Back the 9 each way   $11 bet now

 

Race 5 – 3:10 PM BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

 

No. 5 Jonny Ge attacked the line strongly to finish third last start at Grafton. He should find this race easier today and there does look to be good speed up front. No. 3 Bring A Secret is a very consistent horse who won very well first-up at Canberra. He is fitter now and his record over this trip reads very well. No. 4 Bogie is fitter now after two runs back and he will really appreciate getting back on a better surface.

 

Back the 5 to win  $3.2 bet now

 

Race 6 – 3:45 PM BENCHMARK 75 HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

 

No. 15 Arigold is fitter now after two runs back this time in. He is going to love the rise in a trip and he should get every chance from the gun draw with no weight on his back. No. 1 Reiby The Red is a very fit animal who will be in front for a long way and No. 6 Manhattan Son scored a nice win last start and I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran another big race at good odds today.

 

Back the 15 each way and have a boxed quinella 1, 3, 6, 10, 14  $11 bet now

 

Race 7 – 4:20 PM BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

 

No. 12 Tivoli Street steps up in grade after winning his maiden at this track last start. The table couldn’t have this horse any fitter and I think his win last start would have given him a lot of confidence. Watch for him late. No. 10 Orcym Sam is a fit horse who is racing well and No. 3 Conarchie loves racing at this track and if he can get his own way up front then he should take a ton of catching.

 

Back the 12 and 10 each way  $5.5 bet now

 

 

QUADDIE –

4, 5, 8, 9

2, 3, 4, 5, 8

1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 15

1, 3, 9, 10, 12

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