JUDGING JOCKEYS!

Now that the Jockeys Premierships for this season are decided, with tight contests in Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra and fairly clear-cut results elsewhere. Jamie Kah had South Australia sewn up weeks ago, William Pike brained them in Western Australia, the old marvel Jeff Lloyd stitched up Queensland while David Pires ruled in Tassy. In Sydney, Hugh Bowman and Brenton Avdulla battled it out, with Bowman prevailing, pretty much with one meeting to go. In Melbourne, Craig Williams got home by two wins from Beau Mertens, and in the ACT, Brendan Ward just pipped Matthew Cahill.

All good stuff, but are Premierships the best guide of which rider you want to carry your cash?

City or Country, Jockey Premierships are a great guide to the money riders, but it’s a plain fact in racing that the top jockeys generally get the best rides. So, in a way and at least, to some extent, it’s a self-perpetuating situation. That’s not to suggest that the guys and girls at the top of the Premiership listings are not great riders. I’d be happy to argue the quality of Australian riders against the jockeys available in any country. The point I’m leading up to is a much more mercenary one.

My old boss used to say that he could buy as much beer with the dollar he won at Manangatang as he could with the dollar he won at Flemington. He had a point. Racing and winning is about placing the horses cleverly, and every trainer tries to do that. There is just no point in consistently running a horse outside its’ class. It’s a waste of time as well as money. And there is a similar argument to be made about riders.

The question distils down to this. Is it more important to look at how many wins a rider has in the kitty when you are thinking about backing a horse, or is it smarter to look at how often that rider wins and where? Are jockey strike rates – how many rides per winner – just as, or more, important than Premiership positions?

Let’s look at some examples.

As far as the statistics can be sourced accurately, any rider that strikes at a rate under 10, that is a winner on average in every 10 rides, has to be worth following. Some of the strike rates are fascinating. If we take probably the winningest jockey in the world today –Joao Moriera – his strike rate is 4.3. William Pike, the WA Wizard, strikes at 4.2. Adrian Coome in North Queensland strikes at 4.6. Jeff Lloyd in Brisbane strikes at 4.9. Compare those figures with the fact that James McDonald, with the power of Godolphin behind him, had a strike rate of 4.8 before his suspension. Certainly Moriera rides in a classier competition than either Perth or Rockhampton, but the old adage still applies – the dollar you get from Rocky buys just as much as the one you get backing Moriera in Hong Kong!

In comparison, Hugh Bowman strikes at 5.4, so Hughie is right up there, but Jamie Kah in Adelaide strikes at 5.2. Brenton Avdulla scores 6.2, just behind Craig Williams at 6.1 and just in front of Kerrin McEvoy on 6.4. But Linda Meech strikes at 6.2 as well, so don’t be wary of putting your cash on Linda in country Victoria! Tommy Berry strikes in the sixes as well, as does Beau Mertens and Damien Oliver. The girls of the moment in NSW, Rachel King and Rachael Murray, come in at 7.7 and 7.0, and Claire Lindop in Adelaide sits at 7.3. The record-setting Robert Thompson has a strike rate of 7.2.

So, where does all that take us?

It’s reasonable to think that the fact that Hugh Bowman is chased by the trainers of the better horses would lead to improving his strike rate. But does the fact that Jamie Kah has a lower strike rate than Hugh Bowman mean that she is the better rider? I don’t think that Jamie, on her best days, would make that claim. But, in the Adelaide pond, Jamie is a big fish when it comes to consistently booting home winners. Same argument applies to William Pike in Perth, Adrian Coome in North Queensland & Jeff Lloyd in Brisbane.

The thing about a rider having a good strike rate is that it shows that the jockey can perform consistently, in the racing environment they most often ride in, and on the class of horses they most often ride. And that means that they deliver dollars to smart punters, whether at Randwick or at Benalla.

Smart punting means looking at all the factors that go into making a dollar on the horses. Jockey strike rates, to my mind, are more important than Premiership positions to a smart punter. Hugh Bowman doesn’t need Winx to validate him as a champion jockey and his strike rate on the champion mare is perfect, but Winx would probably validate any rider that didn’t fall off.  Any jockey that can consistently produce results on horses that could never measure up to Winx is a jockey worth considering as part of your punting decision.

Look at the strike rates! They can only help!