On the turf here and a surprisingly good 4 for winter mid-week. A challenging start to the day kicked off with three maidens and races fuelled with first starters and hardly attractive as betting propositions. Big fields (despite scratchings) but not many chances in many of the races – hopefully
BEST BET: Race 8# 1 I’M TELLING YA $2.5 bet now
BEST VALUE: Race 7 #5 AROHATA $7.5 bet now
Race 1: 15-2-14-9
Not many jumps out performers better than this – 15 ZOOPHORIA – who makes a debut. Just looked a natural speed runner at Flemington and happy to go the gamble in an even race filled with similar questions. 2 ELLE GAGNE, well found for this off sound debut. 14 TRUE EXCELSIOR, a $450k yearling, showed enough first prep. 9 PREPARE TO WIN showed good ability first preparation and can only have benefitted from that.
SUGGESTED: Don’t go wild, go 15 ZOOPHORIA, and follow the money in. $4.6 bet now
Race 2: 12-8-5-4
First starters big players here but think 12 the $1.5m yearling 12 ELTIZAAM will have improved on $2.6 beaten debut at Seymour and has blinkers for winkers here – a regular Lindsay Park ploy. 8 EXCEDER has shown just enough ability to win a race, fitness edge might mean is this one.5 KRAGLE has blinkers for Weir debut and has had experience through trials. 4 HUNTING TOWER rightly safe in betting.
SUGGESTED: Follow market but believe 12 ELTIZAAM to chase purchase price. $3.8 bet now
Race 3: 4-14-7-2
What an ordinary race, 4 MARQUANT was an $18 chance resuming when a touch awkwardly away and ran well enough for this skinny contest. 14 ONCE UPON A DREAM was slow out on debut and did well. 7 LILY’S REWARD was wide resuming for Steven Pateman stable (ex Ciaoran Maher). 2 FLYING DUCK best value.
SUGGESTED: Have a breather.
Race 4: 10-16-9-8
Out to 1715m third run looks ideal here for 10 PRETTY MAMA even more so when form danger 4 SISTINE SAINT came out. Looking at 16 RIP GIRL as a danger, quickly out to trip from 1300m but runs solid. 9 MISS ARRIETA was ok in BM 64 in town last time and 8 HURRY HARRIET has had chances but senior jockey taking over a plus.
SUGGESTED: Pretty keen 10 PRETTY MAMA. $3.4 bet now
Race 5: 3-5-7-2
Not much between 3 VERSTAPPEN and the unbeaten 5 CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN here, both resuming, just learning the former who ran well strong races in town first preparation. No knock on Freedman’s mare puts herself in races and makes own luck. Them clearly from Weir’s pair 7 DU SUMPENT – under-rated – and trialed well enough and new comer 2 MORAL OUTRAGE (ex Lindsay Park), who was also seen ok StArnaud triall.
SUGGESTED: Like this quinella 3 & 5 $3.4 bet now
Race 6: 4-5-7-8
4 BASTILLE will start shortly here off excellent debut preparation. A $775k yearling looks to have inherited the breeding into ability and this is a good stepping stone. 5 DEMOLITION resumes from a bleeding ban but could enough to test the favorite. 7 IT’S A SHAME BILLY doesn’t have a good win profile but can figure in placings. 8 HARD EMPIRE reads as though will be better after an 1100m run but has two good first up runs in Tassie to respect (and Weir).
SUGGESTED: Confident 4 BASTILLE horse to beat. $2.6 bet now
Race 7: 5-6-2-1
Not many real winning chances here. Think 5 AROHATA a little value against the favorite and stablemate 2 HARVARD. Comes through the messy WINDBERN race and should get the good trail on likely leader 1 SAMMY THE SNAKE here. 6 BIT OF A LAD is the fit honest Weir runner sure to be in the finish.
SUGGESTED: Something 5 AROHATA at the value. $7.5 bet now
Race 8: 1-2-3-8
Back to a rare Class event suits I’M TELLING YA. Run in the listed Creswick Stakes two runs ago beaten just over half a length has it winning this. 2 BIG PHIL comes off a long break, no public jumpouts Cranbourne (still a concern) but won well first up Sale last short preparation. 3 FLASH BOY comes back gelded, jumpouts ok and this race has fallen away. 8 SINGLE RULE was good on synthetic here last time but has upside.
SUGGESTED: 1 I’M TELLING YA looks the god here. $2.5 bet now
Race 9: 11-1-3-10
Race changed with scratchings and leaves it a skinny Quaddie leg, two winning hope 11 GIROUX, ready after three runs in ad 1 BLAZING SOCKS, excellent resuming when caught wide. Only insurance is the 3 IRON MACHINE who will appreciate former ground today. Local 10 GIGI GIRL gets a chance for minor prize money with a lot of dead wood here.
SUGGESTED: 11 GIROUX to break through. $3 bet now
Race 10: 10-6-12-18
10 PABLO’S EXPRESS was terrific in the synthetic to break maiden, that was 1600m second-up so no issue out to 1715m here in another race of not much depth. 6 VILLICANA brings a different form card but it’s a winning one and that’s respected. 12 BACK TO THE BOWLER had a busy July and last two runs were satisfactory. 18 SEUL SPIRIT is an 8YO local who placed here last time and gets a chance to do so again.
SUGGESTED: 10 PABLO’S EXPRESS wins. $3.1 bet now
QUADDIE:
4-5
1-2
1-3-11
6-10-12
$36 for 100%