Thought it would play from straight last week and a $150 shot blows all out of the quaddie. So lesson learned. Rail out 10m from 6m and track usual good 4 and firming, been a windy late week.
BEST BET: Race 5 #2 SAMOVARE $1.95 bet now
BEST VALUE: Race 4 # 2 SHAMKIYR $15 bet now
Race 1: 2-1-4-3
A bit of form intertwines here through 2 CONFLUENCE, 3 NISTAAN and 5 MULK all line up from a windy Caulfield and couldn’t say any of them has bragging rights to this from that but leaning Confluence who should sit right on pace at the 1400m which is an advantage with tempo critical. Think 1 PERUGGIA is over odds, keeps winning (that’s what Weir does). 8 SHEER MADNESS also in the wider game, not Aljawzaa.
SUGGESTED: Having something on 1 PERUGGIA at the odds. $12 bet now
Race 2: 3-4-2-1
The winner comes from 1-2-3-4 and the rest are making up numbers but very keen 3 MASTER ZEPHYR to triumph here made 2 KILIMANJARO look pedestrian last time but tactical change with it and fitness is respected here. 4 SUPER HAZE excellent win last time and the trip will sit. 1 ARALDO JUNIOR got easier confidence booster last time over 3200m.
SUGGESTED: 3 MASTER ZEPHYR for the master trainer (Weir) to break through. $3.4 bet now
Race 3: 2-5-1-3
2 SOVEREIGN NATION is going to start very short now after scratchings and when your main market danger is 5 ONEROUS you should be winning but this might just become tactical and the only concern. 1 TALLY has the obvious class edge, there are better targets for it as we get into spring but expect something here. 3 TRIED AND TIRED is perennial – place a chance.
SUGGESTED: 2 SOVEREIGN NATION should win. $1.9 bet now
Race 4: 2-11-3-9
Best value of the day here in 2 SHAMKIYR for Weir now and the first-up run was more than pass mark. Thinking may need one more but not missing out at the odds here. 11 JAMINZAH was excellent last week, down in weights against a few possible plodders here with other assignments ahead and looks attractively placed. 3 RIYADH is flying, especially at Flemington and seemingly uncaught by the handicapper. 9 COSMIC LIGHTS to be proven at trip but racing consistently.
Race 5: 2-6-5-4
This looks straight forward for 2 SAMOVARE at the short odds here, form, stable, jockey, weight plus. 6 SWAMPLAND keeps progressing and winning and that’s always a positive to be respected. 5 O’RACHAEL doesn’t make winning a habit but now in Melbourne to try and find that and looks on target. 4 TAVI BAY has good fresh form, better form over longer but this lacks a bit of depth. Just can’t come into 3 NIMINYPIMINY – has the ability to win but as a punter – just doesn’t.
SUGGESTED: Favourite 2 SAMOVARE should win this and better there after. $1.95 bet now
RACE 6: 7-11-9-19
Big field naturally drew to Flemington for a mid-week style BM70. Still, a lot of solid forms to measure from like 7 I BOOGIE progressing (ties in with YOGI if you wants to draw old maps) to 11 INVICTUM DOMINA rolling forward in a different Flemington scenario here. 9 KILMACURRAGH is another wild card who has shown good ability and the first-up form reads obviously well. Include 19 TAHI if gets in (doubt it does). 13WAYANKA competitive.
SUGGESTED: Wide Quaddie leg but 7 I BOOGIE form stacks up. $4.8 bet now
Race 7: 5-4-7-2
Obviously a historically well-respected race via name, once used by Cups horses resuming but has transformed into a more modern race, maybe by Memsie Stakes (in two weeks) now being worth $1m so how to assess the first uppers the form challenge key. Which is why I like 5 FLIPPANT – who has straight track experience and excellent at Grafton last time. 4 WE’VE GOT THIS will power late, 7 CANNYESCENT is flying and 2 I AM A STAR is rated here as best of the better ones resuming.
SUGGESTED: Like 5 FLIPPANT here. $5 bet now
Race 8: 1-8-16-8
Good race with many variables. Will learn a little here. Gambling 1 CROCODILE ROCK who went well in typical short first Team Williams prep 1600m 2nd to 2400m win. 8 ANNAMAN is the value – two runs for Weir and reckons ready to show up at this trip off old Qld form. 16 ALWARD missed the boat on the softer ground at Sandown. That’s racing pattern but Flemington suits. 9 GALAXY RAIDER is beaten more times than wins but has the ability to reverse that profile. Including 2 BLING DYNASTY in quaddie.
SUGGESTED: 1 CROCODILE ROCK on to better (remember Aloft last week as a profile) $2.9 bet now
Race 9: 7-11-1-10
Just a BM90 to close day here and going with an 85 rather in the very sound 7 ROCKET TOMMY who win four last prep on a progressive upside profile. 11 TRIBAL WISDOM is similar, happened quickly first prep and might be going better places than a few of these. 1 GUN CASE has an excellent 1200m record. 10 RUNSON resumes and runs well off that profile. But plenty of other little winning hopes for quaddies players (if you have survived) till here.
SUGGESTED: 7 ROCKET TOMMY stands out in the widely graded benchmark. $4.8 bet now
QUADDIE:
3-7-9-11-19
2-3-4-5-7
1-2-8-9-13-16
1-7-10-11-14