Overview: Plenty of spring potential starts kicking off at this traditional meeting. Rail out 3m (last time 6m).The trick is there is an 80% chance of up to 10mm of rain (including hail) on Friday and a 60% chance of another 3mm race day. Nonetheless tipping a big day with D K Weir – just the six winners on top here.
BEST BET: Race 8 #11 Brave Smash $3.5 bet now
BEST VALUE: Race 7 #7 Star Exhibit $11 bet now
Race 1: 8-6-1-2
Don’t think 1 HELL OR HIGHWATER or 2 DULVERTON with their claimers can give the weight to 8 SEA THE SPARKLE to start a big day for D K Weir. Query obviously 6 NOT ONLY FLORINA who off a mark of BM 78 is dangerous.
SUGGESTED: stay with 8 SEA THE SPARKLE $4.2 bet now
Race 2: 5-6-2-3
Betting has pointed the right way with 5 OREGON’S DAY resuming here. 6 WRITTEN ERA is under-rated and comes to a Saturday test at the right time. 2 LYUBA is destined for better and is a first-up winner. 3 SULLIVAN BAY is the fit reliable one. Not risking 1 RISQUE with all the class.
SUGGESTED: Follow the money trail 5 OREGON’S DAY $3.8 bet now
Race 3: 16-18-13-2
Another positive betting lead for 16 QUILISTA on Melbourne debut for Weir off huge WA form for a BM73 horse. Respect 18 TOY BOY if it gets a run, 13 FURSA, from the same stable as top tip looks dangerous and 2 THEANSWERMYFRIEND ran well first up last campaign before winning and predict the same scenario here.
SUGGESTED: Liking the push the way of 16 QUILISTA and can see why. $4.4 bet now
Race 4: 1-3-4-9
What an unattractive race. Can 4 RHYTHM TO SPARE make it back to back, can 3 AMOVATIO make it a win? Not for the punters. 1 BIG DUKE is the best horse and better priced to gamble on. 9 MOONOVERMANHATTAN is fit enough and Weir enough now to run a place.
SUGGESTED: Only want to back 1 BIG DUKE against these. $6 bet now
Race 5: 1-8-6-2
The good fillies resume and the best of those is 1 CATCHY and has trialed up well. Against them is the fit and talented 8 CROWN WITNESS to be respected. 6 SEANNIE looks a real talent and from another form line. 2 TULIP we know well and respect well.
SUGGESTED: 1 CATCHY to resume in style. $2.45 bet now
Race 6: 4-13-14-8
Boys version here of last season’s 2Yo’s into 3 and safe option 4 the unbeaten JUKEBOX, (note the shoeing change) who missed the big season pressure for various reasons to start again here. 13 POSEIDON’S POOL is the fit danger, 14 A THOUSAND DEGREES is the big query with a sense of stable timing. 8 CLIFF’S EDGE has shown good ability – as have most of these.
SUGGESTED: 4 JUKEBOX the obvious but not clear cut. $3.5 bet now
Race 7: 7-2-3-4
No Winx in Melbourne is great and the reason for being here for 2 HARTNELL but then there are six from D K Weir to beat. Reckon 7 STAR EXHIBIT in for a big spring in the good campaign under full-time care of Weir. But that’s not knocking the ever reliable 3 BLACK HEART BART and 4 TOSEN STARDOM.
SUGGESTED: Starting a spring affair with 7 STAR EXHIBIT. $11 bet now
Race 8: 11-1-14-6
Exciting prospect here in 11 BRAVE SMASH – again new to Weir, Japanese form and well found in early betting. Follow. 1 VEGA MAGIC obvious class and danger and both may end up Everest bound. 14 SOUCHEZ resumes – not worried re alley on the one corner turn – and suggest well placed to go here. 6 LORD DA VINCI profiles well.
Suggested: Start learning about 11 BRAVE SMASH $3.5 bet now
Race 9: 14-15-18-6
So it’s Weir again with 14 OZI CHOICE bringing fitness to peak here and beat 15 PORTMAN who won’t know itself away from Flemington but trucks well into this. 18 REVOLVING DOOR will need the luck to get a start and from the gate but should press forward. 6 DIVINE MR ARTIE doesn’t have a winning profile but remains a threat in this.
SUGGESTED: Punter’s pal (hopefully for the day) Weir again and 14 OZI CHOICE. $6 bet now
QUADDIE:
4-13-14
2-3-7
1-6-7-11-14
6-12-14-15-16-18