GOOD QUALITY RESEARCH OF A HORSE’S OVERALL CV IS A KEY INGREDIENT IN SELECTING A WINNER

31/05/16

Most punters were on the ropes at Doomben last Saturday from the get-go after Upstart Pride won the first race on the eight event card, leading all the way and running fast overall time. As far as I’m concerned, any punter with any respect for their money couldn’t have backed Upstart Pride as he’d won just one race in the previous 14 months (in words so there’s no confusion that’s fourteen months) and that sole victory was in an $18K total prizemoney race at Ipswich at $1.80. Additionally Upstart Pride had only been capable of winning just one race in his previous 12 starts, meaning he had a pathetic 8.33% win strike rate from his last dozen starts. Yet even with that aforesaid at best what I’d call “very ordinary CV”, Upstart Pride stepped out and romped in by four lengths. If anyone would have said before the race that “Upstart Pride will win this race by four lengths and run fast overall time by bettering 1.09.00 on the track that was given out as officially a good 4 on race morning”, they’d have probably put the person who muttered that statement in a straight-jacket and dragged them kicking and screaming to be put on display in the local mall, so that people could throw rotten fruit at him or her.

Some of the other seven races on the day panned out as expected – as happens on any race day across any of the three codes.

To that end, when I was reviewing the results of the day’s racing at Doomben, I must say that I found it interesting to reflect on the CV of the first two past the post in the main race of the day – the Doomben 10000 won by Music Magnate from Azkadellia. I haven’t heard or read the following mentioned anywhere, so how’s this for consistency. Music Magnate now hasn’t missed a place at his last eight starts, whilst Azkadellia hasn’t missed a place in her last 11 starts, meaning as at today, the duo has cumulatively been placed at their last 18 starts. That’s extraordinary. So after all the talk and writings of the “experts’, all punters had to do to get the Quinella or Exacta in the Group 1 feature of the day was to back the two most consistent horses in recent times.

And it’s proven time and again that you can’t beat recent form when assessing form. Here is the preview of the Lord Mayor’s Cup that was sent to my Saturday Morning Mail clients at 9am last Saturday morning. Properly researched form is so important, so any punter who is time poor can pay me just under $20 a week to get eight races previewed, with some good quality researched form, instead of wing and prayer stuff of their own due to time constraints, or one line form analysis in various racing publications and form guides. At the end of the day, some horses have an ordinary CV in recent times. And some horses can’t carry weight as per an article on that topic that I wrote here recently. Any punter who read that particular article entitled “Exclusive: Do some quick research to make sure the horse you want to back can carry weight as many horses simply cannot carry weight” should have therefore deduced that the Lord Mayor’s Cup last Saturday, which was incidentally the first leg of the Treble on website advertiser Ubet, only had three possible winning chances in the big 15-horse field, so being able to limit the chances in a 15-horse race to just three hopes in a Treble, or Quadrella ,is a big start in what money needs to be outlaid on that particular leg. Here’s the preview that went out to Saturday Morning Mail clients:

DOOMBEN Race 6 – 3.21PM GROUP 3 WFA LORD MAYOR’S CUP (1615 METRES)

HORSE

COMMENT

AMOVATIO

Racing in great heart, having won the Hawkesbury Cup two starts back then getting beaten a long head in the Scone Cup with 59.5kgs last start. Is a proven weight carrier and a multiple Listed winner with 60kgs, so he should be up to his eyeballs in this WFA race.

KOOL KOMPANY

Has been unplaced at all five Australian starts since joining Waller but he’s been overracing in longer distance events than this, so given he’s won with 58.5kgs multiple times internationally if he’ll just settle in the run today over this 1615m trip he could cause a boil-over even though he hasn’t won for 13 months.

JUMBO PRINCE

He’s won one and a half races in the last 12 months and has drawn the extreme outside barrier here, so he’s like the boy with the barrow today jumping 3.5kgs on his last start dead-heat.

WORTHY CAUSE

Has only been placed at three of his last seven starts and he’s yet to win with more than 57kgs and he has 59kgs here – so no.

ROCK STURDY

Did nought last Saturday behind Snippets Land here over 1350m and he’s never won past 1550m – so no.

MIGHTY LUCKY

Is racing well with two wins a second and an unlucky sixth at his last three starts. Won three starts back with 61.5kgs and was wide the trip with 60kgs when unlucky in the Scone Cup last start, so at least he can carry weight and has each way claims.

HOPFGARTEN

Just the one win in the last 14 months is a concern but he’s a place chance on his liking for the track and distance (finished top-two at four of seven).

MALICE

Hasn’t won anywhere for the last 17 months and he’s only been placed at two of his last eight starts – so no.

PAJARO

Won the Scone Cup raffle last start by a long head and jumps 5kgs here to WFA – so no.

LORDAG

Has 59kgs and is yet to win with more than 58kgs, so he’s in unchartered waters but given he’s finished top-two at four of five starts at the track and distance he’s got each way claims.

AKAVOROUN

Hasn’t won anywhere for the last 22 months and has only been placed at one of his last 13 starts, so he should need this run as he ran out of puff first-up last start behind Coolring at the Gold Coast with 4kgs less.

BRAVE ALI

Hasn’t won anywhere for the last 23 months and has been unplaced at his last six starts – so no.

BODEGA NEGRA

Hasn’t won anywhere for the last 13 months and has been unplaced at his last eight starts – so no.

COURT’S STAR

Won his first race in 11 months last start in a Benchmark 80 race at the Gold Coast, so he’s outclassed here jumping 5kgs today at WFA.

PEACE FORCE

Been getting trounced in easier races against her own gender – so hardly.

Additional comments: A trap race for young players if ever there was one – as not one horse in this entire field has ever run a place at WFA. So in that event I go looking for horses that have proven they can carry weight, as many can’t. Therefore after studying that particular aspect very closely, the only three winning chances – in racebook order – should be Amovatio, Kool Kompany and Mighty Lucky and I’d back Mighty Lucky each way.

 

And on the subject of horses being proven at being able to carry weight, Puccini was 20/1 into 11/1 in Darwin against his stablemate Real Love in the Premier’s Cup in a race weighted under “Quality Handicap” conditions. On his best form Puccini was favoured under that weight scale. This is what Saturday Morning Mail clients were advised of his chances before he ran second:

PUCCINI

Hasn’t won a race anywhere for the last 16 months and has been unplaced at his last four starts, but two of his last three runs have been quite good, so he could cause a boil-over here, as he’s at least a proven weight carrier at Group 1 and Group 3 level in New Zealand before coming here (won at Group 3 level at Trentham with 59kgs on 25/10/14 and a Group 1 with 57kgs at the same track on 24/1/15).

 

And those many punters who wanted to be in Azkadellia’s corner in the Doomben 10,000 may not have been with her after reading this “good quality research” as many punters wouldn’t have realized she’s never won a black type race when racing males :

AZKADELLIA

She’s had eight black type starts in her 14-start career and only two of those eight have been against males for a 10th of 13 in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes to Kermadec on 1/11/14 at Flemington and a third, two starts ago, with 7kgs less than she’s got today, behind Winx and Happy Clapper in the Doncaster at Randwick. She hasn’t started for seven weeks, so she’s short enough and is no “put-in-take-out” job in my opinion.

 

So whilst I regard weights in general in thoroughbred racing – and in particular weight turnarounds in individual horses from one run to the next – as “pretty much irrelevant”, when the weight scale is moved from handicap conditions to WFA or Quality conditions, weights suddenly take on a whole new meaning.

Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s a story on Written Tycoon siring eight winners in the last week.

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