ROSEHILL
SATURDAY 9 SEPTEMBER
TRACK: GOOD 3 RAIL: True
BEST BET: Race 7 No.5 Menari $2.4 bet now
VALUE BET: Race 9 No.7 Ebenos $6 bet now
Race 1
5-7-2-4
The lack of speed is the worry but I think as long as 5 MARIQUITA settles early she can roll into the race similar to the last start and be too good again. She deserved the victory the last start having been consistent without luck. 7 MIDNIGHT DELIGHT was good in beating the smart Sweet Deal two runs back before an honest run against some tough nuts last at Canterbury. With three runs under her belt, this campaign she should be spot on here. 2 KARAVALI is the other winning hope coming here following a solid win first up albeit at home at Newcastle. Bowman and Kris Lees are a tough combination to beat.
BET: Backing 5 Mariquita $3.5 bet now
Save 7 Midnight Delight $7 bet now
Race 2
1-3-4-7
I’m with 1 SUNCRAZE but I will say barrier one concerns me a little as he seems a far better horse when outside horses. His last start wins seven weeks ago at Randwick was very good as was his barrier trials 10 days ago at Tamworth. 3 NORTHERN KNIGHT has won three from three and although this is his toughest test he has looked the part of a handy horse. The gate is likely to be his biggest hurdle. 4 MOSSMAN GORGE will likely lead and be hard to run down but he will have to do it over 1200m unlike the 1100m here a fortnight ago. 7 DON’T GIVE A DAMN was impressive on debut at Goulburn and although this is tougher he should get a good run sitting on Mossman Gorge.
BET: Backing the 1 Suncraze $2.5 bet now
Race 3
1-12-13-3
1 ALWARD is the one to beat but at his current quote of evens, I think it well under the odds. He was impressive in Melbourne before coming to Sydney and getting the job done in a fun run race. He will have to carry 3 ½ kilos more so it won’t be easy. The value for mine is one of the stablemates in 12 QUICK DEFENCE who meets Alward 2 ½ kilos better for a 1.4 length defeat last start and his run was every inch as good if not better as he was forced to come from a mile back off an awkward tempo. 13 MAPMAKER seems good odds at double figures coming off two very good runs and now steps to a distance he should relish.
BET: Something each way 12 Quick Defence $10 bet now
Race 4
2-1-3-7
2 TRAPEZE ARTIST was very good first up when beaten less than three lengths in the Up And Coming Stakes when lumping 61kgs. He has trialled since in good fashion and from barrier one he should enjoy the perfect sit and be hard to beat. 1 THE MISSION’s best form looks to be on the wet ground but I think that was just mainly to a wet autumn. His two trials this time in have been good and although it isn’t easy first up over 1500m he will give a bit of cheek here. 3 ADDICTIVE NATURE has always been a highly touted horse and must be respected off his strong win last start in the Ming Dynasty. 7 GOLD STANDARD will be on-pace and will give a sight but he meets Trapeze Artist some 7 ½ kilos worse at the weight for beating him home by 2 ½ lengths. They are the winning chances.
BET: Good bet on 2 Trapeze Artist $3.8 bet now
Race 5
6-8-1-4
If you could guarantee me the speed would be solid and 6 EGG TART wouldn’t be too far off the front we could all jump on with confidence but they are the concerns I have. That said I think her class will be enough for her to run over them here and confirm her spot near the top of the Epsom market. 8 CANNYESCENT will only carry 53kg and turns up here off a cracking run behind Hey Doc in the group 3 Aurie Star at Flemington. 4 DIXIE BLOSSOMS and 3 DEPLOY look the other winning chances and both should be on-pace.
BET: Backing 6 Egg Tart $2.6 bet now
Race 6
2-3-7-1
Everything went wrong for 2 OMEI SWORD first up starting with knuckling over as the gates opened but she was still able to find the line better than anything giving the run plenty of merit. The awkward gate here is a big worry as Chris Waller has indicated she will be ridden back. She is a quality mare and even though she will be giving a start she will be motoring late. 3 DAYSEE DOOM is first up and should get a perfect run with both 7 BONNY O’REILLY and 10 DENMAGIC both drawn outside her. She has trialled well and does race well at Rosehill.
BET: Equal staking 2 Omei Sword $5 bet now
3 Daysee Doom $7 bet now
Race 7
5-4-10-7
5 MENARI will get the chance to prove he is the best 3yo sprinter if he can the job done here especially having drawn the outside gate. He was impressive winning first up with a big weight and coming from off the speed. If he can get across early I think it’ll be shut the gate. 4 PARIAH looks the big danger having been impressive winning the San Domenico first up. He has drawn perfect and should enjoy the perfect run. 10 KEMENTARI has always had big raps and resumes here off two very barrier trials. His win at Randwick back in May was special so he must be respected here. The value to my eye looks to be 7 CHAUFFEUR who charged home to run second to Pariah in the San Domenico.
BET: Betting up on 5 Menari $2.4 bet now
Race 8
4-13-6-8
4 TANGO RAIN will jump and run and be hard to run down if the last start is anything to go by. He is a big strong speed animal and the step up to 1200m won’t pose any issues but he does go from a benchmark 78 to a far better field here in a benchmark 90. His biggest danger looks to be 13 ZUMBELINA who had won four from five plus a second before striking two heavy tracks which took the wind out of her sails. She resumes here off two very good trials and from gate one and only 53.5kg she must be given plenty of thought.
BET: Backing 4 Tango Rain $3 bet now
Race 9
7-5-11-6
7 EBENOS looks well placed here coming off a solid run in a better race last start and now having had a run over the 1400m trip. Three runs back this preparation should have him ready to fire. 5 THE PHAROAH has been in dashing form and the drop back here to 1400m after just failing to see the 1500m will suit. He will make his own luck up front. 11 WAYANKA has been racing consistently in Melbourne and must be given thought here.
BET: Backing 7 Ebenos each way $6 bet now