I’ve already admitted to some misgivings about the whole concept of The Everest, but Grinch time is over. The hype around the race is huge, so I may as well jump on the bandwagon. The race is on, so who is going to get to the summit first?
There is no doubt that the field for the race represents the top sprinters in training, and the barrier draw has caused some concerns for some of the more fancied runners. So, how will the race pan out? With $10 million up for grabs, there’s not likely to be any hanging around in the early part of the race. Just like the typical Golden Slipper tempo, The Everest will undoubtedly be a high pressure, “jump and run” exercise.
Let’s take the runners one by one and try some predictions.
Chautauqua is a bit of a conundrum this time in. He will undoubtedly be last in the run to the home turn, and he will undoubtedly be finishing on, but does he still have that withering turn of foot that we saw last preparation? On his last run, there has to be a question mark hanging out there, but a frenetic pace certainly brings him into calculations. He is starting from Barrier 5, but barriers really don’t matter for Chautauqua, given his racing style. Likely finishing position – fourth.
Vega Magic has drawn Barrier 10, and that makes things a bit more difficult. He will likely race off the pace and rely on a final burst. His form this time in is hard to fault, but he has to bring Melbourne form into Sydney’s reverse way of racing. He worked well in his last hit out for the race and seemed to handle the Sydney way of going, so he can’t be discounted. Likely finishing position – seventh.
Redzel will be on the pace from Barrier 4 and has to be given a real chance. The problem is that he will have to do it at both ends. Does he have the motor to do that? It’s doubtful, at least in my mind. Likely finishing position – sixth.
Redkirk Warrior should be just behind the pace and will be finishing on. He has drawn well in Barrier 3 and should be the stronger of the Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig runners. Likely finishing position – fifth.
Clearly Innocent comes out of Barrier 6, so that’s not a problem. He’ll get back in the run and will be another that will swoop home. I’m just not sure that he has the real class of some of the others, so he’s a risk for mine. Likely finishing position – eighth.
Deploy only knows one way to race. He will either lead or sit outside the leader. He’s the track record holder, so he has to be a live hope. I would expect him to be there for a long way, and look the winner at some stage of the race. Not sure if he will be able to hold off the swoopers, though. Likely finishing position – third.
Fell Swoop is a very good racehorse. Is he top class and up to this race? Well, he won’t be carrying my money, not at WFA. He will get back, and I can’t see him figuring in the finish. Likely finishing position – ninth.
Brave Smash is another one that’s hard to fathom. On his last run in Melbourne, he just can’t win this. That said, his form in Japan before joining Darren Weir’s stable was strong, so discounting him may be a risky thing to do. He drew Barrier 9, and that, on top of the Melbourne run, means that I’ll let him go. Likely finishing position – tenth.
English was just outstanding last start with a real eye-catching last section and has worked the house down since. She is a real racehorse with an outstanding final sprint and the ability to sit off a hot pace and come with a crunch. With luck in the run, she’ll be right there. But, from Barrier 12? Blake Shinn will need to be on top of his game to get her home. Likely finishing position – second.
She Will Reign is flying at present. Her win in the Moir was just terrific and from Barrier 2 with just 51 kg, she will sit just off the pace and be there ready to strike. She is favourite for good reasons and looks the winner.
Houtzen, from Barrier 1, has to lead to have any chance at all. With the pressure on all the way, I just don’t think she can lead and stay there. Likely finishing position – twelfth.
Tulip is a very good filly, but not up to this. From Barrier 11, she will find it tough. Likely finishing position – eleventh.
So, there it is – might be right, might be wrong. Just like the whole Everest concept, really!
By Rob Young