The Feature Race Anywhere in the World is the Non- Group status EVEREST on Saturday which features 12 of Australia’s best sprinters.
For mine it’s a good field on paper and really there doesn’t look to be any horses around at present that have been unfairly over looked so it really is the best of the best at present.
Below is how I see the field with some pro’s and con’s for each runner and I’m certain there is some value in the race.
Below we have the field in Barrier Draw Order:
| Horse | Expected Settling Position | Career Best Number | Current Form Number | Comment |
| Houtzen | Lead | Plus 4.1 | Plus 4.1 | Won the Magic Millions and judging by all reports it would seem the trainer wasn’t overly keen to start here. A nice Barrier but simple she is at least 3 to 5 lengths off what is expected she will need to win here. Is a speedy filly and with not silly speed might be able to hold on for 4th but I feel she is up against it. |
| She Will Reign | 3rd pair fence | Plus 4.9 | Plus 4.9 | The Cinderella Story. The Ugly duckling who they couldn’t give away at the sales as proven a star so far against her own age. She settles just behind the lead here and whilst she too comes off a career best run last time- all things being equal she needs to improve 2-4 lengths- but gets many ticks here. |
| Redkirk Warrior | Worse Than Midfield Fence | Plus 4.8 | Last Run was plus 3.5 | Has more wraps than a present at Christmas- however the facts remain his career best rating is well short of what will be required here. Another quirk is every time in his career when he is exposed in a fast run race from further out than 300m he has “popped”. For mine well under the odds and can’t win. |
| Redzel | Equal Lead | Plus 8.2 | Plus 8.2 | This little horse has a heart the size of Phar Lap. Always a toiler before this preparation and he has returned a 3-4 lengths better horse. He comes off a career best rating and gets a lot of favours in the run here. At $8 he is amazing value and I don’t think he will miss the top 3. |
| Chautauqua | Last | Plus 12.1 | Plus 6.2 | What do we do with the champ. He is one dimensional in that he will be out the back. His career best blows these away- but there is not suicide speed involved and that is going to make his task very difficult. The $6 is a good price on offer. |
| Clearly Innocent | Worse Than Midfield 2w | Plus 4.8 | Plus 4.1 | Newcastle big hope and he maps well here. The hard facts remain he needs to improve 3-4 lengths- but on what I see I think he can. Genuine place hope. |
| Deploy | Forward Midfield 2w | Plus 6.7 | Plus 6.7 | Has come from left field and been running well and comes off a career best. He needs to also improve to win but for mine I think they will ride him too close and if they do his chances are negated. Has been a flat track bully and won’t get control here and hence I say he will struggle. |
| Fell Swoop | 3w On Pace | Plus 6.1 | Plus 3.8 | Been a terrific older horse for connections and whilst he tries hard his current form would indicate he is a little away. |
| Brave Smash (Australian Bloodstock runner of which Luke Murrell is a principal) | Last 2w | Plus 11.5 | Plus 4.4 | His Best rating in Japan would blow most of these away- but to my eye his coat looks to be growing in preparation for his expected Japanese Winter and it seems he may need some more time to acclimatise to Australia. The form around him down south is outstanding. My heart says yes but realistically he gets a sticky gate and the worry is he is looking for further or even a spell until he acclimatises further. Has the most upside in the race but I feel he will flash late or run down the track. Work reports have been solid. |
| Vega Magic | 3w and 4w On speed | Plus 6.7 | Plus 6.7 | Pre- Barrier Draw the fool proof horse- but now from that gate it makes it very tough as he will be not be getting many favours in the running. Still probably needs to find a length but he easily can do so and is coming off his career best win- The first 200m will decide his fate. |
| Tulip | Last 3w | Plus 2.8 | Minus 0.5 | Her run in the Golden Slipper was amazing- but on her career best run and current form I expect her to follow the whole field in last. |
| English | Last or wide out the back | Plus 8.1 | Plus 4.9 | Her barrier draw is a killer. It will force her to settle back and I’m not convinced the speed will be quick enough to enable her to finish over the top. A good run last time and her career best will be good enough to win- however for mine I’m looking elsewhere as she has no favours. |
- Ratings above are our own unique personal ratings to determine the merit or lack of in a horse’s effort when considering all factors such as wind, track conditions etc
Verdict: Simple the race has two horses that are World Class with Chautaugua and Brave Smash having phenomenal ratings in their career. The question is if they can get near these ratings they fight the finish out
However, I think the safest play in the race is REDZEL- I have him marked a $4 chance and think he can’t miss the top 3 all being even. $5 win and $10 place I think you can’t go wrong
For second Vega Magic and then I expect to See the Champ Chautauqua flashing late for 3rd
Good luck and happy punting!!!