The Caulfield Cup obviously in racing circles is one of the Big 3 that everyone wants to win and this year we get less than a capacity field to contest the 2400m event. A nationwide plunge on Admire Deus went astray as the Japanese galloper went amiss on Tuesday morning. In my humble opinion on his average rating Admire Deus could have won this year’s Caulfield Cup by lengths but with his scratching the race is wide open.
Traditionally to win one of these major’s horses need to be around a plus 8 on my ratings although this year it looks very likely that the winner will only have to produce a plus 6 range.
The biggest issue this year is the apparent lack of speed on paper. The slower any race is run the less exposed the inferior horses are and as a result this is generally when we can find an upset result. Faster run races expose the inferior horses and generally the cream rises to the top. When you’re doing your own selections remember 2400m is a different ballpark for horses and its always a huge tick if a horse has had a 2400m run or is coming off a 7 day back up.
Below are some facts and comments on this year’s field in barrier draw Order;
| Horse | Career Best Rating | Most Recent Rating | Comment |
| HARLEM (GB) | +8 | +0.3 | Should settle midfield but gets blinkers on for the first time which is unusual. His run 2 starts back when he won at this distance put him right into the race and the inside draw will help in a muddling speed race as we have here. Big chance here and $12 is massive. |
| JOHANNES VERMEER (IRE) | +5 | +4.2 | Will settle midfield or a touch worse. Currently the favourite and in my opinion I’ll be amazed if he runs top 2 and I think a massive chance he misses the top 4. He is a massive distance doubt and whilst I love the 7 day backup his form and very best rating is at least 2 lengths of what should be required to win this. Not for me. |
| BOOM TIME | +5 | +2.7 | Is one who possibly could lead and for mine he was amazingly brave just 7 days ago on a suicide tempo. He will need a career best and his 7 day back up record is not great but he gets a few ticks here and at a price of $100/1 I think he is some hope to run in the minor money. |
| VENTURA STORM (IRE) | +4 | +1.4 | Another who will need to be top 2 in the running as he is a real dour grinder. On paper comes through the right form lines for this but facts are he is not very good. However he meets a field of similar types and he will stay the trip easily. Top 4 chance just do to lack of opposition although will need a career best to run top 4- however the lack of tempo might help him |
| ABBEY MARIE | +3.7 | +3.6 | Should settle midfield or worse. She needs a wet track and a miracle for her to win. She does get a 7 day back up which is good but that’s her only tick |
| JON SNOW (NZ) | +3.7 | +1.7 | Should settle just behind the leaders but on speed so that is a positive. He is also trained by the freak Murray Baker and gets a 7 day back up which is also a huge plus. However he is greatly overrated and off his last run he has to improve at least 4 lengths to win and this would require him to improve his best ever run by 3 lengths. He is overrated and to short in market. |
| HUMIDOR (NZ) | +7.6 | +0.4 | Will settle back in the field on an average tempo and that’s a major issue for his supporters. His last run was putrid but if you can forgive that he realistically has 2-4 lengths on this field quality wise but my main issue is he could be spotting the leaders 7-10 lengths. Best horse in the race is going to need a peach of a ride. Gets the Tongue tie again although that is something he has never won in and I have a serious doubt on him the last 200m. |
| HARDHAM | +4.8 | Minus 1.3 | Should settle midfield but his last run wouldn’t win a midweek Adelaide race. Has no chance. |
| LORD FANDANGO (GER) | +4.9 | +4.9 | Should settle midfield to worse than midfield
This bloke is interesting- is coming off a gun ride last time but this produced a career best run and rating plus the 7 day backup is sensational. His jockey is a rising superstar if he keeps his head on and this is a winning chance- just needs to get him to settle and switch off early with some cover. |
| MARMELO (GB) | +5 | +5 | Funny horse in that he is not a fast horse at all and has drawn tricky. I think they will want to be on speed but I’m not sure he will be comfortable to be that close. We haven’t seen him in Australia and I’m suggesting on his UK form he likes the much bigger tracks however has got some ok form and has more scope and upside than most of these. If he can be on speed comfortably he is a winning chance- but he doesn’t have the turn of foot to be back in the pack and charge late as is too dour. Must include in all exotics. |
| INFERENCE | +3.4 | +1.4 | Should settle worse than midfield. He is a lot of weekend punters tip but I can’t have him. His career best is at least 3-4 lengths off what will be needed here and he maps away- not for me. |
| SINGLE GAZE | +4.2 | +1.2 | Should settle on pace. She is a brave little thing and yet is only knee high to a grasshopper in size. She tries her best but she is not good enough to run top 3 here. |
| AMELIE’S STAR | +4.4 | +2.2 | Should settle worse than midfield. She is another who is brave and honest and will try her best- however her best is still well short of what will be required to win this. The current price is crazy short. |
| BONNEVAL (NZ) | +5.9 | +0.1 | Should settle at the rear but comes into this with an injury cloud with the trainer declaring she is right but stewards disagreeing. She has one of the top 4 career best ratings in the race- however she will map horribly here and her last run whilst looking common was just an effort but she did something I like and she has to be included in your top 4 bet. |
| HE’S OUR ROKKII (NZ) | +3.8 | Minus 5.1 | Should settle worse than midfield and congratulations to them for having a runner but he couldn’t win if he took a short cut through the infield. Has the worst last start of any runner here and that’s saying something !! |
| WICKLOW BRAVE (GB) | +8.5 | +4 | Could lead this field or settle out the back. Trained by the Irish equivalent of Bart Cummings in Willie Mullins and the trainer is a freak. Has got the best career rating in the race. Has had one go at 2400m and beaten 14 lengths as he is really an out and out stayer. Given he is the class horse of the race include him in the first 4 and if you want a roughie for the Melbourne Cup back him now as is tough and will stay plus has more class than most. |
| SIR ISAAC NEWTON (GB) | +6 | Minus 4.4 | He is our designated leader and should fly across and then at about the 800m mark watch out as the sniper gets him. Funnily enough his best rating would get him top 4 here but his form since moving to Australia has seen him loss 10-14 lengths and hence I can’t have him here. |
Summary: In summary with an average tempo only we will more than likely get a bunched finish but it’s certainly set up for a horse who gets momentum and ideally who is drawn on speed. I do expect by this race they will be swooping down the middle however on my ratings the only winning chances are: Humidor, Bonneval, Harlem, Wicklow Brave, Lord Fandango and Marmelo. Given these horses set ups and the way they map I think at the current prices a good each way bet on Harlem