Doomben 28 – 10 – 17
Rail Position: +5M Entire Course.
Track Condition: Soft 6
Weather: Fine
The storms in SE QLD seemed to have missed Doomben, so doing form on a Soft 5 track that will be upgraded to Good 4 early in the day if the rain stays away.
BEST BETS:
R7 N3 CANTBUYBETTER Each Way
R8 N1 DON’T TELL MAMA Each Way
Race 1
Hard to get enthusiastic about a bet in the early season 2yo old races, and this is no easier. The market support early on, is for 3 SIENNA ROSE. She chased home a smart one last time, and with the addition of blinkers here, she looks the horse to beat.
Numbers: 3 – 6 – 4 – 1
Bet: WIN 3 SIENNA ROSE
Race 2
2 leading chances here, with 1 VALFIERNO & 6 BONSHO both hardest to beat. I thought 6 BONSHO could show good speed on fresh legs and roll to the front here. She won under these conditions 2 starts back when leading all the way. Last start she led and was run down late by the flying Gatlinburg over 1100m. The 1050m suits off a freshen up here and will hard to get past. 1 VALFIERNO looks to map just behind Bonsho, and is in good form winning well last start. He steps up to Saturday grade off his last start win, but looks up to the challenge.
Numbers: 6 – 2 – 10 – 9
Bet: Roving banker 2 & 6 in Trifecta and happy to play 6 BONSHO 1×2 at $4.40 & $1.85
Race 3
4 GIRL IN A MILLION is a speedy filly who will be letting rip with no weight from the wide draw here. She is well in at the weights with 51.5kg and expecting her to be ridden aggressive and use the weight advantage over her rivals. 1 St Patrick’s Day is a winner at listed level during the winter carnival and resumes here off a soft trial. Has a bit against him with the gate and the alley here, but has class. 9 ADORADANCER can find the fence early and settle just behind the speed and is a chance also.
Numbers: 4 – 1 – 9 – 3
Bet: 1 x2 Each Way 4 GIRL IN A MILLION
Race 4
2200m staying event for the BM75 horse, such a wide-open race with, almost all of these could win if they got the race run to suit. Only playing small, but having a 1 x 2 play here. 3 ANOTHER COCKTAIL has been good his last three runs, and is massive value at $101. He is no moral, but if he gets a bit of speed here early, he can run home into the money.
Numbers: 3 – 6 – 9 – 5
Bet: Small 1 x 2 Each Way 3 ANOTHER COCKTAIL $101 & $26
Race 5
15 Don’t Doubt Da Wife sneaks into the field with 54kg and gate 1, I expect her to hold the front here. 9 FREDDIE FOX TROT has been impressive winning through his grades, and can sit outside the leader here and is the hardest to beat. 12 ISLA TRISTINA has been ridden very conservatively her last two, and if the speed is on early she can get home over the top with luck in running.
Numbers: 12 – 9 – 15 – 2
Bet: Will box 9,12,15 in a Quinella and Exacta & Each Way 12 ISLA TRISTINA
Race 6
13 SURE DEAL was impressive first up, when running slick time in winning at the Gold Coast. She can lead here from gate 2, and with 53.5kg will certainly give a sight. 14 COLOSIMO is certainly the hardest to beat, although has to negotiate the tricky draw here.
Numbers: 13-14-10-2
Bet: Each Way 13 SURE DEAL
Race 7
Looks to be good speed here with Numbers 5,6,7 all capable of leading. I like the prospect of 3 CANTBUYBETTER first up at the 1200m here. He is a class horse, winning at listed level during the winter carnival. He sprints well fresh, and he looks to be a great EW chance here. 1 HOPFGARTEN got the cash for us last start, when an alarming drifter in betting going from $4 to $10, but still winning. He has a lot of weight, but is a leading chance.
Numbers: 3 – 1 – 11 – 4
Bet: Each Way 3 CANTBUYBETTER
Race 8
* Disclaimer my girl 5 NOW YOU SEE has drawn well and she can lead here and make her own luck. She steps up in class here, but she is genuine and tries hard. I think 1 DON’T TELL MAMA is the right bet at the $10. She has an excellent fresh record and draws to get the perfect trail behind the speed. She looks a safe Each Way play. 12 OUR BEEBEE is probably the best horse in the race, but she has drawn horribly here, 3 wide with cover is likely her best scenario. If the speed is on, she can still get home over the top.
Numbers: 1 – 12 – 5 – 10
Bet: Each Way 1 DON’T TELL MAMA
Race 9
A really competitive BM 90 over 1630m, with a number of winning hopes. I was hoping 3 RULING FORCE could have led last time; he was crossed and only held his ground in the run home. If he can lead here he is an EW chance at the good odds. 7 DREAM FINNISH & 1 TORGENSON come through a strong race last time, but both draw horrible here. If either get luck in running they can win. 2 LORDAG was unlucky last time, and can go forward to offset the wide draw.
Numbers: 3 – 7 – 1 – 2
Bet: Each Way 3 RULING FORCE
Race 10
A tough race to finish the day, with 11 IN HIS STRIDE on top, on the strength of his winter carnival form. He ran second in the listed Eyeliner Steaks, and if he repeats that effort he can win this. Hardest to beat is 8 COURTZA KING, who can roll forward here and race on speed and be in the finish.
Numbers: 11 – 8 – 6 – 1 5
Bet: Each Way 11 IN HIS STRIDE