Now that the Carnival is over – what did you think of it all? How did it all stack up?
For me, the overall standard of the racing was pretty average, as Spring Carnivals go, but there were certainly some outstanding individual performances, and one in particular that posed an intriguing question.
The horses that turned in performances to remember were Redzel, Merchant Navy, Tosen Stardom and Winx. But what made them memorable was different in each case.
Redzel is now indisputably the top sprinter in the country. There’s a clear changing of the guard and Chautauqua no longer rules the roost. In fact, Chautauqua seems to be racing as though he needs further than 1200 metres nowadays. Redzel, on the other hand, just blows them away with speed. Quick out of the gates, quick over the first furlong, and when that happens and he leads, all the jockey has to do is to get the maths right and chasing him down just becomes a physical impossibility. If Redzel stays fit and sound, he could be chasing Black Caviar and Winx in the unbeaten streak business. His win in the Darley Classic was just dominant. There was simply no way he was going to lose once he led and controlled the pace. Watch the replay – Kerrin McEvoy rode Redzel perfectly, played to the horse’s strengths and had the rest off the bit pretty much all of the way.
Merchant Navy’s win in the Coolmore Classic was freakish and means that his stud future is pretty much assured. Aside from that glitch in the Golden Rose, he is unbeaten, and the Coolmore gives him his first Group One. But the way he won was the thing. 100 metres out, and he was strung up behind horses trying to find a way to the outside. Then Mark Zahra changed tactics, went to the inside, and Merchant Navy just exploded into an inside run and left them with windburn. An outstanding bit of riding from, in my view a vastly underrated jockey, and a clear demonstration of the huge potential that Merchant Navy has. I can’t wait to see him get up to middle distances. He’s by Fastnet Rock, so those trips shouldn’t be out of his reach. Were he mine, I’d be thinking Cox Plate next year!
And then there was Tosen Stardom in the Emirates Stakes. Horses just can’t get slapped down 200 metres out in a Group One and win. But he did! It’s a long time since I’ve seen a win like that, and it’s a long time since I’ve seen a quicker closing 100 metres. Maybe we’ve just seen the real Tosen Stardom. He hasn’t been disappointing in the nine races he has had in Australia, but he hasn’t shown that turn of foot before. Darren Weir’s comment after the race that he had finally shown at the races what he shows at home really said it all!
Then there’s the magic mare, Winx. You can’t expect much more from any horse than 22 consecutive wins and three Cox Plates, but will she get to Black Caviar’s record? Only 4 wins to go to pass the champion and take the crown as the winningest mare, but, to me, her Cox Plate win this year raised as many questions as answers. True, she won with some authority, but not with the arrogance of previous years. Humidor was given an outstanding ride by Blake Shinn, but even Blake would have to say that nailing Winx just wasn’t going to happen. Close, but no cigar! Humidor came home very well, but the replay shows that Winx out-toughed him. Humidor didn’t explode in the last little bit, and Winx clearly held him over the last 50 metres.
That’s where the intriguing bit starts.
Remember Tosen Stardom’s finishing burst in the Emirates? Compare that with Humidor’s last 100 metres in the Cox Plate. Both races over 2,000 metres, but there simply isn’t any way that Humidor showed the turn of foot in the Cox Plate that claimed the Emirates for Tosen Stardom. What if it had been Tosen Stardom chasing Winx? And what if he had produced a burst like he showed last Saturday? Maybe Chris Waller pulled the right rein sending her to a spell rather than tackling the Emirates Stakes.
Winx is a six year old, Tosen Stardom is a 7 year old bull. But many more six year old horses race on effectively than six year old mares. Even the great Sunline made her seven year old year her last in racing. So the question is there – will Winx come up again in her next preparation, or is she really wanting to be a Mum? Time only will tell, but if she has a go at an unprecedented fourth Cox Plate win, I hope that Tosen Stardom is there as well! Remember, he had his first Australian start at Moonee Valley and finished fourth by less than 3 lengths in the 1600 metre Group 2 Feehan Stakes, coming from well back at the 400 metres, so he can handle the Valley. And with a finishing burst better than Humidor, anything could happen!