Snowy Clark’s late mail from Sha Tin

Snowy Clark’s late mail from Sha Tin

Kiseki is Snowy’s top pick in the Longines Hong Kong Vase.

LONGINES HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL RACES LATE MAIL

Sunday December 10 Sha Tin.

Race 4 (5pm AEST) LONGINES Hong Kong Vase

TIPS: 12-1-2-7

The more I have seen of this magnificent Japanese 3YO colt KISEKI this week the more I have liked him and he has been one of the best backed runners across the four Longines international races. He is a $5.4 at time of writing on the Hong Kong tote in from $5.6 which was about his price fixed odds where he is now into $4.4 with some corporates. He is the only 3YO taking on the big guns – 6 time G1 winner HIGHLAND REEL, a winner of this in 2015 and 2nd last year to Japan’s Satono Crown – and Godolphin’s Breeder’s Cup winner TALISMANIC (beating Highland Reel into 3rd), and himself an imposing and impressive type this week at trackwork. But Kiseki stands out for me. He debuted this day last year winning a 2YO event over 1800m at Hanshin and he has won 3 of 4 heading into the Vase, the latest a 3000m G1 (St leger after a fast finishing 2nd in the Japan Derby. Look for him to be charging home. Moreira’s mount TOSEN BASIL has worked well this week and was a last start G2 2400m 2nd to Smart Layer (runs in Cup). MAX DYNAMITE has had a power of work asked of him since his Melbourne Cup 3rd and hasn’t shirked the task. TIBERIAN has a place show after tough Melbourne Cup run. Adam Campton has put local GOLD MOUNT (Zac Purton) on top, the former King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot and has impressed in two prep runs for this including a closing 4th to Werther in a G2 2000m. Yes to be respected.

Race 5 (5.40pm AEST) LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint

TIPS: 1-2-4-7

Looks a race for the locals headed off by MR STUNNING for Nash Rawiller and one of four here for John Size. The intrigue is that Moreira went with stablemate THEWIZARDOFOZ off what he called the trainer’s advice which might have been under question when it finished 9th and 5th to MR STUNNING in the two prep runs for the Sprint.  Mr Stunning is Hong Kong’s highest rated horse (121), has drawn ideally for a horse who should get cover in a race with speed (rare in recent HK Sprint runnings) with SIGNS OF BLESSING and 2015 winner PENAPHOBIA most likely to set tempo. LUCKY BUBBLES gets Bowman, was 2nd in this last year and somewhat surprisingly might need “luck” despite drawing 1 alley. Had none of that for Purton behind Mr Stunning in the G2 Sprint lead-up. A blowout chance might be Japan’s LET’S GO DONKI who is back from a G2 1400m 3rd at Kyoto and is a G1 winner at 1600m.

Race 7: (6.50pm AEST) LONGINES Hong Kong Mile

TIPS: 7-10-4-1

Heavily backed already is SEASONS BLOOM (into 2.4 on HK tote) and accounted for all main local rivals in G2 Mile November 19. Hard to see BEAUTY ONLY (4th) HELENE PARAGON (3rd), JOYFUL TRINITY (last) HORSE OF FORTUNE (7th) WESTDERN EXPRES (12th) turning it around but giving BEAUTY GENERATION (Montaigne in Australia and runner-up in Rosehill Guineas) is the pick of the dangers after running an on-pace third to SEASONS BLOOM (formerly Le Capitaine for Brendan McCarthy in Australia winning a Pakenham Maiden. He has made a huge impression in Hong Kong especially this season with Moreira linking up. SATONO ALADDIN (Bowman) comes here of two career worst form runs but one of those can be explained by soft ground in the 2000m Tenno Sho but this is his 3rd trip here, 11th in 2015 Cup and 7th in last year’s Mile. Is a G1 winner of the highly regards G1 Yasuda Kinen. BEAUTY ONLY (6th in that race) won this last year of the obvious lead-up race (the one Seasons Bloom won this season)and he seems to be on his way back to better form.

Race 8: (7.30pm AEST) LONGINES HONG KONG CUP

TIPS 2-4-3-12

Earlier this week I was with NEOREALISM and not shying away despite the avalanche for the obvious in WERTHER (Tommy Berry). Neorealism comes off a soft track below par performance in the G1 Tenno Sho (won by local star Kitasan Black) when resuming but was G1 2000m Hong Kong winner prior to that in QE11 Cup blasting away a then in-form Pakistar Star. He ran this day last year in the Mile (9th) but will use 1 alley and make Werther earn victory. Werther showed he was in good nick winning the G2 2000m(Purton) lead-up beating TIME WARP. He’s HK Horse of the Year and is a 4 from 5 course and distance winner. Hard to find a knock. Expect POET’S WORD for Sir Michael Stoute to figure. Looks to have settled in well. Comes here off two G1 2nds in Irish Champions Stakes and Champion Stakes at Ascot. Best value might be Japan’s grey (almost white) SMART LAYER 5th in this last year, beat Tosen Basil in G2 2400m before closing 6th in G1 2200m last time. Looks to peak.