There’s an old saying that Aussies will bet on two flies crawling up a wall – and it’s just been proven to be true.

Would you believe that Tabcorp and most of the corporates have opened a betting market on the Golden Slipper? Well, they have, and it’s still 15 weeks away and 70% of the field have yet to see a racecourse in battle mode and most of that lot haven’t even trialled seriously. To bet in those circumstances has to take a large load of inside knowledge, or large other bits!

Successful punting is all about managing risk. Just ask a bookmaker what can happen if he, or she, doesn’t balance the book. And managing risk is all about having the knowledge to identify the risk itself, and to identify the level of probability that the circumstances that will bring that risk crashing down on you will occur. The question that has to be asked about a Golden Slipper betting market at this very early stage of the game is simply what level of knowledge is there, and can it identify risks and probabilities. The answer has to be “no”.

So, for me at least, putting a bet on the Golden Slipper can wait until closer to race day. In fact, if 2018 follows the pattern of the last few years, I probably won’t have a bet on the race at all. It’s simply, in my view, a poor betting medium. Think about it. Betting on the Golden Slipper means betting on a sprint race with a capacity field of relatively inexperienced two year olds, on a relatively tight track, with a bucket load of prizemoney. We all know that Golden Slippers tend to be knock ‘em down, drag ‘em out affairs. Remember Greg Hall’s ride to win the Slipper on Merlene? Certainly, he won the race, but he flattened a good portion of the field to do it and got an enforced holiday as a result. Folklore says that Greg needed the time off to count the “sling” that Kerry Packer threw his way – it was that big.

That wasn’t an isolated incident. Every year, there are hard luck stories after the Golden Slipper. And that’s not surprising. The majority of the field, in any year, still haven’t developed a preferred racing pattern, so the barrier draw tends to have an inordinate influence on race strategies for individual runners. If a horse draws well, and has good gate speed, the jockey is pretty much obliged to commit to leading, or at least sitting on the pace. But, at this stage of their careers, these babies haven’t yet shown their trainers, let alone the average punter, if they can do that and finish off a high-pressure 1200 metres. So, there is one risk that can’t be quantified.

Then there is the other side of the barrier draw equation. If you draw out, you have to go back unless you can rocket out of the gates and cross the field. Not likely, when the horses drawn in will be trying to get on the pace to avoid a scrimmage around the first turn. And if you go back, you will almost certainly be 5 or 6 horses wide, at least, around the home turn. Not a good look at Rosehill, especially if my money is on the runner! There you go, another risk that can’t be quantified.

And they are babies – big or small. Most of them will still be learning racecraft. In some cases, their tractability on a big day like Slipper Day can be called into question. Horses do react to crowd noise and the atmosphere of a huge race day, and some do it badly. The babies are always more susceptible to this, and there’s another risk that comes into play before the race, and also during the race.

That’s why I’m comparing betting this early on the Golden Slipper with betting on the flies on the wall.

The two biggest betting races on the Australian calendar are the Melbourne Cup and the Golden Slipper, with The Everest challenging. Betting early on feature races can be lucrative – if you can jag the winner. As of today, Performer is the favourite in early betting on the Slipper, at odds of $8.00. If he is still favourite on race day, he certainly won’t be at $8.00. But there is the thing. Racing is a game of uncertainties, not a game of certainties. Just ask the connections of Gingernuts. Whoever would have expected a fit and hard racehorse to fracture a pastern hacking to the start? With bucket loads of runners still nominated for the Golden Slipper, and 16 places in the final field, early punters face another risk. There’s a 60% chance that, even if your fancy stays sound, it won’t make the final field anyway.

Contrast this with the Melbourne Cup. There are 24 runners in the final field for the Cup, they all have exposed form albeit it may be overseas form, they are all experienced racehorses with tractability traits that are known, and they are running in a race where strategy and tactics play a much greater role than they do in the helter-skelter madness that is the Golden Slipper. An early bet on the Cup doesn’t make a huge amount of sense to me either, but it is also less risky than an early bet on the Slipper.

So, if you really want to make an early bet on the Golden Slipper, please feel free to do so. And after you’ve placed the bet, give me a call. There’s a really interestingly shaped bridge in Sydney that I can let you have for a very reasonable sum!