Shane Ciurleo’s full preview & best Doomben

Doomben 30-12-2017

Rail Position: Out 1m Entire Circuit

Track Condition: Soft 6

Weather: Fine

 

 

 

Best Bets:

WIN                         R4     N8 HAVASAY

EACH WAY           R8     N5 CANT BUY BETTER

ROUGHIE             R9      N4 NOTONYOURLIFE

 

Race 1

Looks good speed here with 2 COLINELE and 16 DARKTOWN STRUTTER running well on speed recently. Just not sure either of these want it too quick early over the distance, as I feel both are suspect at the trip. Expect 1 BOOMWAA to be ridden forward, and he is the type of old campaigner who can really take it up to them here. If he can find the fence first, he will give them something to catch.  If the speed is overdone, I can see 9 JUST ORM getting a nice run in behind them and producing late.  His run 2 starts back over this trip behind AMANAAT has him in the finish here.

Numbers: 9 – 16 – 1 – 2

Bet: EW 9 JUST ORM

 

Race 2

$100,000 Provincial Final, and it’s a very tough race to decipher.  Firstly the disclaimer, I have a share in 1 SAIPAN, and will be cheering on.   If the race was over 1200m I’d be really confident, but the 1350m is the unknown for him. Hopefully D Lane can ride him conservatively and have the last crack at them late. The horse is going super and is definitely an EW hope.  5 FIT FOR PURPOSE & 8 DAPPER ONE have both drawn terribly, which makes it hard for them, but they are the ones I’d want be on if drawn reasonable. 19 PEGAPUS looks to get a nice run from the draw, he will be in the finish if he gains a start.

Numbers: 1 – 19 – 5 – 8 Have to tip SAIPAN on top

Bet:  EW 1 SAIPAN

 

Race 3

5 CROCKETT strips fitter for his first up effort in QLD, and looks primed to go now.  He certainly can be winning here, and going into the Millions alive chance 3rd up from a let up. The horse to beat is 8 SIZZLING ACE, who if had of drawn better would have been a clear on top for me here. Really liked his first up, and happy to have something EW at the good price. She will need luck from the gate, but should be improved and ready to rip.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 13 – 4

Bet: EW 8 SIZLING ACE

 

Race 4

8 HAVASAY was enormous when flashing late when first up last start. He got back from a wide gate, and broke the clock getting home in very fast sectionals.  He can settle handier here, and enjoy a nice run in transit, before getting home over the top late. 2 PINCH RIVER only knows one way, and he can find the top and give them something to catch.  7 STRATURBO can get a suck along the rail and fill a hole also.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 2 – 18

Bet: WIN 8 HAVASAY

 

Race 5

Racing heavy weights DK WEIR & C WALLER looking to qualify for the MAGIC MILLIONS Stayers Cup in this wildcard event, but its Toowoomba trainer Richie Stephenson to spoil the party with 3 EMPHASIS.  I’ve liked the way he has gone about his prep, and looks absolutely cherry ripe to win over 2200m. The Kris Lees trained 2 SINGING can race on speed and make his own luck.  9 NIGHTS WATCH is the horse to beat, hit the line nice in the Werribee Cup, and looks suited to here.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 2 – 1

Bet: EW 3 EMPHASIS

 

Race 6

It’s a big step up in class, but it’s time to see if 13 CARE TO THINK is up to them.  On the strength of his first up win, I can’t bet against him. He draws perfectly to get every possible chance, and I think he win.  Think the QLD horses can handle the early favorite up from Sydney, 11 I THOUGHT SO. If Care To Think doesn’t beat him, 1 MOST IMPORTTANT can, who was terrific in winning last start. 7 PRIVLAKA & 8 TRUBIA are also chances.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 7 – 11

Bet: EW 13 CARE TO THINK

 

Race 7

5 PIERATA was beaten by a superior ride by J Lloyd on 4 WHYPEEO last start. I’m confident 5 PIERATA can turn the tables on 4 WHYPEEO here and is the horse to beat.  6 SHOGUN SON was the horse I wanted to be on after his first up run, he has drawn poorly here but is still a winning hope.  Even though he is drawn wide, he can get a trail into the race, off what looks to be good speed and flash late. I’m happy to be on him EW at the price.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 4 – 1

Bet: EW 6 SHOGUN SON

 

Race 8

5 CANT BUY BETTER can fly the flag for the QLDers here and win again. He was really strong through the line late when winning last time, and with some genuine speed engaged here will get the race run to suit.  Jamie KAH-ching! Takes the ride again, and looks to go back to back. 1 BEAUTY FLAME has been looking likely to win a nice race on the strength of his 2 runs back from Hong Kong. He has been working home nicely in both runs back, and I think he represents the value in the race.  Plenty said about the ride on 3 CABEZA DE VACA last time, when he led at a terribly fast pace in the Villiers, before tiring late. It would be a huge effort to recover from that run, travel to QLD in the heat we have had, and reproduce that run.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2-  3

Bet: WIN 5 CANT BUY BETTER & SMALL WIN 1 BEAUTY FLAME

 

Race 9

I hope we have plenty before the last, as this is really tough. Happy to give 4 NOTONYOURLIFE another chance in an open race.  She’s back to a suitable trip here at 1200m, where she was excellent in winning first up.  She gets the speed on here, and can be the one rattling late. 1 GHOSONI & 2 ZESTFUL are good NSW performers who can measure up here, along with 11 INVINCIBELLA who will enjoy a good run and is very hard to beat here.  I like that she comes here about a month between runs, and can dash well off a freshen.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 2 – 1

Bet: EW 4 NOTONYOURLIFE

 

 

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