FLEMINGTON January 1 2018
Happy New Year punters and there can only be one resolution – back more winners and no better day to start than January 1 at Flemington. Traditional meeting highlights are the sprinter’s Standish Handicap and the stayer’s Bagot Handicap in what looks a terrific betting meeting (there’s an early crow for early in the year). Rail out 6m (first meeting back since end of Cup week when 3m) and will be a typical Flemington good – so much so 5mm irrigation went on overnight after 11.4mm of rain two days earlier.
BEST BET: Race 4 #4 LAST WEEK
BEST VALUE: Race 6 #1 LORD OF THE SKY
Race 1: 2-5-7-1
The early money points to the debut of KHULAASA off limited public exposure. Obviously respecting the money and lead that it’s the pick of the Lindsay park trio of the seven runners here. But happy to go with CROSSING THE ABBEY who was more than competitive as a ($31 into $21 chance) on debut in the Maribyrnong Stakes when speedy and run down late to be only 1.5lens behind leading Magic Millions hope Nomothaj. Like that Williams, who rode the horse ina Cranbourne trial before debut takes this race ride. MIRETTE has also had early betting support (7.5 into 6.5). CARNINA has switched from Mark Newnham to the Busuttin stable and showed ability in trials before passable debut when had little luck.
SUGGESTED: CROSSING THE ABBEY to get us going.
Race 2: 5-2-7-1
Goof competitive race with six (of 9) identified possible winning chances (1-2-4-5-7-9) but going JUST HIFALUTIN who will appreciate Flemington and 1400m. Got too far back at Moonee Valley and did a mighty job to get as close from disadvantaged position there. WISE HERO is now out to 1400m 3rd runs in after two good short course 2nds. CREATIVITY is in good form and a winner 1400m (Sandown) last campaign. NIKITAS found winning form 3rd run back in Adelaide with usual on speed pattern at 1400m. Will make own luck despite the (earned) weight here. WILLI WILLI beat home Burning Front resuming and has good talent to go better fitter here and INDIAN THUNDER is another for Weir to have worked to winning form.
SUGGESTED: Good race but like JUST HIFALUTIN as best option.
Race 3: 2-1-3-4
ARTICUS just missed in Werribee Cup and will be hard to beat while SECOND BULLET (5th) seemingly failed but got too far back on smaller turning track and returns to favourite venue where has 3 wins 4 placings from 9 goes at the 2000m. So leaning its way. SHOREHAM has come back in terrific form and no fluke about Caulfield win. I’m sure AL HARAM will appreciate the firmer Flemington than wet Sandown on Australian debut.
SUGGESTED: SECOND BULLET to fire back to Flemington.
Race 4: 4-10-15-1
Punters again have gone early with LAST WEEK ($4 into $3.8) and I’m with them again as when a strong MV winner over similar trip (finally) last time and can only think Flemington will suit better. Stable also has CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE who won a BM64 over 2000m at Mornington and has a useful 3kg weight pull as improves through the grades. Best value is SHANGHAI PATROL with interesting gear change of a Visor replacing Winkers after excellent Moonee Valley run. EUREKA STREET also goes in now ready for this at 2000m after two suitable runs over unsuitable distances.
SUGGESTED: LAST WEEK to win again.
Race 5: 6-4-3-9
SILENT GENERAL didn’t have best luck but kept trying to nail TENAPPY LADIES (scratched) at Moonee Valley. Another who will appreciate Flemington and 1700m. RESET ME I’M WILD is ready for this 3rd run in at Flemington while BEDFORD is an improver who will go around over the odds. Quaddie wise consider 2-7-14.
SUGGESTED: Weir again – SILENT GENERAL to salute.
Race 6: 1-3-11-2
Here’s a gamble. Going with LORD OF THE SKY – why? The D Oliver factor. Ollie has had four rides on LOTS for a 2016 Bletchingly Stakes win at Caulfield, a 2nd to Chautauqua in the T J Smith and a 2nd in the G1 Goodwood. The horse’s only run at 1200m at Flemington was a brave 4th to Brazen Beau in the 2015 Newmarket where Chautauqua was 2nd. Yes it’s a bit of a leap of faith to get on board in 2018 but at the $17 odds, reckon it’s a gamble worth trying. Early money has been for FLIPPANT ($4.6 into 4), who was good in a Brisbane G3 first-up last campaign and is a proven Flemington straight winner. Obvious appeal. TOY BOY is the in-form and race targeted fresh blood, but doubt inside gate a spoil and is 30 ratings points behind LOTS and the Tasmanian revelation TSHAHITSI who may find the 1200m a rough sharp but can’t leave out.
SUGGESTED: Come with me – LORD OF THE SKY.
Race 7: 6-2-4-9
ETAH JAMES has been very kind to me and swill not be dropping off her here – stable obviously happy to proceed on despite suggested her 3rd straight win at Caulfield might be the end of this preparation. Has DANDY GENT (Moonee Valley on pace winner over ORMITO) and IMPERIAL AVIATOR (too bad to be true there and tongue tie added) as on speed threats but love horses in form. BINT EL BEDU looks suited to Flemington and this trip. PARTHESIA (VRC St Leger runner-up to DORNIER (better at the Valley) had no luck at Penshurt and can peak here.
SUGGESTED: Stay with ETAH JAMES
Race 8: 6-13-16-8
Always like to follow Weir horses who work to their wins because they tend to keep going on with it. And that’s the case with HECTOPASCAL who did that with some tenacity I thought at Sandown over the same trip. SO FAR SOKOOL profiles similarly off a BM64 at the Valley. PEARL DE VERE is another must to consider from a Moonee Valley maiden win to that next step provincial BM64. Awkward gate is a worry. SOHO RUBY next pick at 3rd run in.
SUGGESTED: HECTOPASCAL to give Weir another.
QUADDIE:
3-4-6-9-14
1-2-3-9-11
2-4-6-9
6-13-16
$150 for 50%