LADBROKES PARK LAKESIDE January 3
Back to Lakeside for this midweek- rail true. Like the meeting, looks good value across it and eliminating many chances in most of the races in finding that value. Comes up a good 4 on race morning.
BEST BET: Race 6#1 MARCHIN ON
BEST VALUE: Race 8 #13 COMRADE NED
RACE 1: 8-9-2-1.
EL PHOENIX was always going to be top pick and after a couple of betting dangers came out, it is going to start very short (abt $1.75) after scratchings and should win after solid debut Hillside pushing up inside. Main danger is KAECILIUS (northern hemisphere bred Shamardal) has been to trials and showed more in local jumpouts than Colac and Cranbourne trials and looks only real danger. MONTEVIDEO had 6 Sydney trials before good Bendigo debut at $17 so that wasn’t quite expected. HOLY CASH has a place hope off 2 runs to give fitness edge.
SUGGESTED: EL PHONEIX should win. Compelling evidence that it should run odds-on here if you want to take it.
Race 2: 2-1-5-12
The safe way (yes punters is there a safe way?) to look at this is the gelded CONFLUENCE off it’s 4 2nds last campaign, but does that tell you anything more than it’s competitive rather than a real talent? SCARECROW, a $240k yearling resumes in town with winkers off after getting rolled at short odds at Wodonga debut. What does that tell us? BAM is overs here. Ran favourite at Seymour resuming – was fractious in barriers then slow out and basically took no competitive part. Obviously went in with better expectation and could have run Tuesday Wangaratta – what does that tell you? TYCOON GINA has trialled well to debut here. This is tricky race.
SUGGESTED: CONFLUENCE looks the obvious – not sure.
Race 3: 1-10-11-8
Well I have been tipping and waiting for TRANQUIL MISS for three meetings now – missed a Saturday Caulfield when lost jockey before barriers then scratched New Year’s Day for this so remains a while since stunning Sale win but is a fresh performer and at the odds – happy to stick. ART FORM has firmed in early betting from $12 and must like Horsham maiden win. That’s what Weir does before bringing them to town. TAGREEDA will run favourite with the up and coming lightly raced banner. Rightly so. No knock. Stablemate ROSEWEDGE next pick.
SUGGESTED: Sticking with TRANQUL MISS – especially at the odds.
Race 4: 6-14-12-10
Very wide race and seeking value with RED GATEAU who resumed well at Cranbourne – Nikita (in-form) rides and never runs poorly. Rather back it around the $9 than market elects off maiden wins ROYAL THUNDER and WETAKEMANHATTAN – who can win but are quickly on the experience rise. KAAPTIVE HERO is only 1/22 but ran well resuming.
SUGGESTED: RED GATEAU at the odds.
Race 5: 8-12-7-9
First leg of the quaddie and going with Weir’s OUR CHIQUILLA (who has been $8 in) off unlucky run at the Valley. Sure FILLE DE CHARLIE in winning there used tactical advantage and perhaps touch flattered, but this is Sandown and reckon Our Chiquilla is now top pick. MOUSAI obviously showed ability on debut then put away by good stable and has trialled up well at Tatura. FREEHEARTED resumed with a sound Kyneton Maiden win.
SUGGESTED: Like OUR CHIQUILLA at the odds to start the quaddie but not one out.
Race 6: 1-13-15-14
Only two winning hopes here – the in-form MARCHING ON off its 2nd straight win Cranbourne 2080m and ABOVE AUTHORITY – who had no luck at Mornington with a better draw and 3kg weight advantage. They clearly have the best form here 14/15 can run a place.
SUGGESTED: MARCHING ON and save ABOVE AUTHORITY. Only two you need. Stake it well.
Race 7: 1-8-10-13
Mick Kent has waited 3 meetings to run TENAPPY LADIES and goes here with 61kg after claim for Steph Thornton using inside gate to eliminate much transit issues. Is the obvious way to go. TAN TAT TRUSTING resumes under the McEvoy care but looks a talent. EVOPEX dominated a moderate Yarra Valley maiden. SINJAREE gets winkers and is another to have waited for this option over long weekend and was caught wide at the Valley.
SUGGESTED: Start and stay with TENAPPY LADIES.
Race 8: 13-2-15-9
Thought this was best value on the card COMRADE NED – off dominant margin wins Yarra Valley and Wagga Riverside – certainly deserves to come to Melbourne in such form with claim. The obvious danger is CALL ME HANDSOME after two sound runs back from Hong Kong, good at Bendigo, makes own luck, pattern perhaps a key but already well found against my top pick in betting. BOORADLEY has not run a bad race, has to prove himself at 1200m but right race to do so. WRITTEN IN STONE goes in for Weir off wider quaddie.
SUGGESTED: Good value here COMRADE NED.
QUADDIE:
7-8-9-12
1-13
1-8-10-13
2-9-13-15
$64 for 50%