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CAULFIELD
SUNDAY January 7
No rain in the cool change that came after Saturday’s swelter and 10mm rain went on track in last 24 hours but this track races firmer than any in Melbourne. Rail goes back true from 6m and expecting inside and those near speed to have no disadvantage but understanding tempo critical in any perception of a bias.Programming has 3 x BM84 as highest rated races of the day, so we go from a BM64, 2 x BM70, 3 x BM78 – field sizes ok, quality for a supposed Saturday class meeting a slight question.
BEST BET: Race 6 # 2 WIDGEE TURF
BEST VALUE: Race 9 #8 LEODORO
Race 1: 9-10-7-5
Pretty even contest here. But going SHENANDOAH coming off a sound on pace BM84 last time and if doesn’t get much pressure here is the one to beat. Claim for Spain (2kg) leads me its way as a slight advantage. Otherwise it’s the race ADDISON beat home SO SPLENDID (3rd) and RISING HOPE (4th) as the way to go. No fluke from the winner there is but not much between them, So Splendid finally getting an advantageous draw.
SUGGESTED: SHENANDOAH the value in an even race.
Race 2: 4-9-5-8
Imagine tipping BONDEIGER to win another race, some 1179 days since latest, but encouraging effort latest Bendigo and the key is noticing Weir has prepared this from his new property “Baringhup” and short term returns have been good. Copping that is as a good tip in even race. FONTEIN LAD is ready, go back to the Bint El Bedu race two back as better reference. ANDREA MAGENTA was never going to be able to give promising Netherfield 3.5kg in tempo controlled race last time, ANGELUCCI won well as a $26 chance here last time and 1kg less going up in grade.
SUGGESTED: Don’t tell anyone you are backing BONDEIGER.
Race 3: 5-6-2-4
Very much liked the debut win of LUCKY CAT (beat subsequent winner) who charged through the line. That will do me in otherwise competitive race. MAGNESIUM ROSE (who has been well supported since fields drawn Wednesday) will appreciate Caulfield home track after couple good MV runs and reckon 1100m here suit right now. AEECEE TONG DE will make own luck and give a sight. TELEPLAY comes through same MV race and boasts a similar profile to Aeecee Tong De.
SUGGESTED: Keen on LUCKY CAT.
Race 4: 13-14-5-2
KEEN led and won its maiden first up 1400m. Drawn to advantage again here, will certainly appreciate longer trips, but right now this BM64 fits attractively into progression. MAHAMEDEIS is another lightly raced galloper to respect, chased home well at 1600m Bendigo, back to 1400m should be no problem. LA VOLT right in the mix. Gets better run here from 1 than when had junior jockey last time here and has a tactical advantage perhaps. Never knocking a P Stokes horse ÉCLAIR CALLING coming to Melbourne and in form.
SUGGESTED: BELLARIA to get some luck from draw in even race.
Race 5: 5-2-1-4
Many winning hopes here and not much to surprise in outcome. But leaning (slightly) towards MAMZELLE TESS who ran top 3- winning 3 straight – last 6 run campaign and resumed well in similar hot race last time. BRUGAL REWARD comes through same race last time, was sound, TYKIATO was perhaps the unlucky runner there and competitive again. ESSENCE OF TERROR has run since fair effort same race and showed speed MV under pressure. Might be better taking sit here.
SUGGESTED: MAMZELLE TESS in open race.
Race 6: 2-5-1-8
Hard to ignore the rise of WIDGEE TURF. Wet or dry no issue and clearly accounted for two key rivals ROYAL ACE and BEL BURGESS at the Valley. MILES OF KRISHNAN has a Lindsay Park gear change and will make own luck. But this looks soft start for quaddie.
SUGGESTED: WIDGEEE TURF wins again.
Race 7: 4-3-11-15
Good race, full of promise but going MANOLO BLAHNIQ who has run well as a gelding two times back and ready for 1200m now. But plenty of hopes here. EPIC MOMENT led and won well at Mornington –same grade (up 2kg), PREVAILING WINDS (Weir) is hard to ignore as it builds up this campaign. CRYSTAL SPIRIT got it a bit wrong at the Valley in strong form race. NINA’S BALLERINA and DON’T BLUSH BABY get runs and have claims.
SUGGESTED: Stay alive in quaddie and something on MANOLO BLAHNIQ.
Race 8: 10-16-14-2
Tricky, but staying with I BOOGI who surprised to some extent winning so impressively fresh up at the Valley and may now be starting to put it together. 1400m suits so it’s top pick. THE AVENGER missed last week for this, touch sticky draw but Oliver and Waller appeal off good Sydney grounding. TROGIR also has bad draw but should press forward, liked its last start win. KING’S COMMAND resumed in good style the Valley. This is not beyond it. SIMPLY SMASHING is in good form, certainly in for quaddie.
SUGGESTED: Tough, but sticking now I BOOGI – looked great on return.
Race 9: 8-12-7-6
Another tough race but if LEODORO has some luck, happy to make it top pick. 1100m will suit now and drawing out eliminates a slight traffic issue. HANDSOME THIEF will be powerful late off up front pressure. REVOLVING DOOR won fresh last campaign and that Brave Smash form looks good for a BM84. Other quaddie hopes – 3/9/
SUGGESTED: Go with LEODORO.
QUADDIE
2
2-3-4-11-13-15-17-18
2-10-13-14-16
3-6-8-9-12
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