Flemington mail- very keen is our man today

FLEMINGTON

Saturday January 20

After a hot later week, Flemington will have soaked up the irrigation from track manager Mick Goodie and be an improving firm 4 on race-day morning. Had 8mm applied Thursday, 10mm Friday, and comes up a good 4 on race morning. Rail out 9m now (was 6m last Saturday).

 

BEST BET:

CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE       Race 3 # 1

NATURE STRIP                     Race 7 #4

 

BEST VALUE:

MR CHURCHILL Race 1 #10

CURRAGH Race 9 #6

 

 

Race 1: 10-6-8-2

A few of these with key form chances like ROYAL ACE and WILLI WILLI are straight from 1400m to 1800m and look as though that will suit – especially in a moderate tempo race as this maps. But I think there is value in MR CHURCHILL, who had no luck two MV runs then out to 1720m on bigger track Geelong – with 59.5kg – and won well. Drawn to get good run and down in weights for this grade suits. Other two mentioned are respected and SHOREHAM has the runs on board.

SUGGESTED: Value starter to the day in MR CHURCHILL.

 

Race 2: 3-4-2-8

Pretty even here and going with a horse with no recent wins in GOODWOOD ZODIAC because he finally gets down in weights (52.5kg after claim) after 60kg past couple in BM78’s and apart from 1 &2 here that’s what we’ve got. SERENADE THE STARS had tongue tie to explain turning around a Caulfield last into a Caulfield win at 2400m last time. Respecting AL HARAM at this trip 3rd riun in and LAST WEEK couldn’t give emerging 3YO stablemate 3kg here on New Year’s Day. Including BINT EL BEDU but not convinced.

SUGGESTED: GOODWOOD ZODIAC to boldly break through down in weights.

 

Race 3: 1-2-8-3

Looks the best bet of the day in CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE, beat stablemate and older horses Flemington 2000m last time and looks more to give and come. Should win. CAVALERO was big odds on the same day at 1700m but nothing flukey about the win, capitalised on good run. ANNEKA is off a strong all the way 2nd-up Mornington 2000m maiden win and GRETZKY did same at Sandown in a 1600m maiden. Think both can progress.

SUGGESTED:  Wins – CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE.

 

Race 4: 2-4-8-3

The race where I liked SHENENDOAH at Caulfield 1800m shapes as the form reference here where Spain beautifully controlled the tempo. Is up 2kg and gets chance to do same but switching to ADDISON from that race and BONUS D’ORO as the value if tempo allows them better mapping. Not knocking SHENENDOAH – mares in form with foolproof patterns are always enticing. Not happy leaving TRANQUIL MISS or SO SPLENDID out of top 4 but that sort of race.

 

Race 5: 6-3-12-11

KRUSTY gets the blinkers going back on again here and with a 3kg claim, if ridden and gets luck, should be right in a busy finish in a typical BM70 competitive contest. Not sure why I have left on-pace winner Sandown PATRIOT ACT out, given it uses the inside gate again and looking at others like GUANGZHOU and TAN TAT TRUSTING that finished behind it to turn that over. SOHOOL is looking for 1600m now (has won to 2200m) and was good chasing at Sandown.

SUGGESTED: Tough race, Krusty to look for some luck.

 

Race 6: 6-13-3-5

Glad 3 of my top 4 have drawn out, thinking that’s the straight advantage here. HANDSOME THIEF was unlucky first up in the Nasdex race which gives up MURPHY’S REWARD (2nd) LEODORO (4th but drawn in and gets back) and the luckless HANDSOME THIEF (3rd – should have won). Going in as a must is JUST HIFALUTIN, also drawn out, also needs some traffic luck and like them back from 1400m to 1200m.

SUGGESTED: HANDSOME THIEF to atone but has respected opposition to beat.

 

Race 7: 4-12-1-3

Anyone who saw or even heard about the mid-week win of NATURE STRIP at Sandown marked him down as Group horse in the making, maybe even an Oakleigh Plater or what’s wrong with a Lightning? This might be his straight track trial for that. Hard to make a case against him off two 5.5 lens wins – despite some ability in the opposition, SEE ME EXCEED gets here quickly but it’s that sort of race and she should have won the race that ONEHUNDRED PERCENT did. OVERSHARE is the proven one in this grade and weights suit. PREZADO is a Flemington 1000m winner already. BRAVO TANGO is a talent but they all find a potential star in waiting here.

SUGGESTED: Might be living on the NATURE STRIP if this gets beaten.

 

Race 8: 5-6-4-3

This is extremely tricky. No D Oliver LORD OF THE SKY who helped us in the Standish at 1200m, now back to the 1000m (Melham) and Ollie goes SARACINO (fresh). The horse has been gelded and is a Danehill straight track winner as a 3YO, recent jumpout – since gelding – good. AMBER SKY – what to do – jumpouts fantastic, all recent runs and no wins in Hong Kong but showed his best ability winning an international G1 in Dubai (straight 1000m) in 2014! FLAMBERGE has left Weir who has added blinkers again to similarly owned THERMAL CURRENT (did I say one last chance last Saturday? – Yes). Then HUSSON EAGLE has a good fresh record (3/5) and a good straight record at 1000m (6:1-2-1) – headache.

Suggested: We have a couple of skinny quaddie legs, this ain’t one of them.

 

Race 9: 6-3-10-12

Declaring small ownership interest in CURRAGH but hard to ignore his fresh record (won 3 of 4). Yes would better suited with cut out of the track – that doesn’t happen at Flemington (especially after a hot week), has prepped up well and is worth a gamble at the odds. WISE HERO clearly hard to beat, no bad runs and got the win last time here when quickly out to 1400m. MALAISE back from Sydney and last time here at 1400m was just 1.5 lens off Hey Doc in a G3. TOY BOY and THE AVENGER round out serious players

SUGGESTED: Happy to lead you into CURRAGH

 

 

QUADDIE:

3-5-6-11-13-15

4

2-4-5-6

3-6-10-11-12

$60 for 50%

 

 

 

 

 

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