CAULFIELD Saturday January 27.
After a hot Friday and a forecast hot (though not as first expected) Saturday we kick off at 11am for Blue Diamond Preview day – two races always loaded with intrigue and this no different. Rail back to the best 6m position (from 12m). Will race Caulfield firm, but pretty fair I’m thinking.
BEST BET: TSHAHITSI Race 8 #2
BEST VALUE: NO COMMITMENT Race 5 #9
Race 1: 7-11-4-8
Pretty even contest here with numerous winning chances. Going THE CHAIRMAN – will need early luck from gate – but ready for 2000m at 3rd run in. NIGHT’S WATCH has been to Queensland – without racing sadly – so its 7 weeks between runs but doubt that will trouble this Weir trained galloper who has built good record. SAYED had its chance resuming Flemington 1700m so surely touch fitter now. GOLDEN MANE couldn’t nail PRETTY PUNK last time but reckon can turn that result over here at least – has good course/distance record.
SUGGESTED: THE CHAIRMAN looks ready.
Race 2: 2-1-3-5
Hard to be decisive here with mix of form and fitness to assess. Am a fan of LONG LEAF ($750k Fastnet Rock) – apart from good ability, seems to find ways to win. Think 1000m won’t be his distance moving forward but both wins in career at that so far. RUN NAAN (Makfi) is also unbeaten, depth of form is to be fully scrutinised yet, but again not knocking a 2 for 2 winner. OLLIVANDER ($70k Charge Forward) has recent fitness and was good winning here, and has had a solid jumpout since. INVINCIBLE LAD ($80k I Am Invincible) got it done to quickly in hot Syd debut (winner there is a star). Now to Melbourne, good gate and has trialled well.
SUGGESTED: Tricky, going with LONG LEAF.
Race 3: 10-4-3-2
Had to be impressed with what was seen of PURE ELATION at the Werribee jumpouts. A $320k I Am Invincible filly out of very good Caulfield mare member’s Joy and looks primed for a winning debut. OOHOOD (by I Am Invincible also) just missed Long Leaf (runs r2) on debut and shows good ability. Don’t under estimate LADY HORSEOWNER who toughed it out to beat the $1.8m Al Naifa at The Valley on debut and it was a $1.3 chance when it won well at Sale last Sunday. I liked CROSSSING THE ABBEY at Flemington and it used its speed to win well. Fitness edge?
SUGGESTED: PURE EMOTION looks the goods.
Race 4: 2-3-1-4
SMART COUPE will run favourite here and not knocking but going with HOLY SEAL who ran into the red hot on the day NATURE STRIP at Sandown. Just thinking the fitness edge and better ground has her with good chance to beat SMART COUPE who ran into Sam’s Image and Nature Strip fresh last campaign then good at Flemington. Looks to have come back well. MAGNESIUM ROSE got the job down at Caulfield while LADY MAGNUS should have finished closer to it. And that’s the race.
SUGGESTED: Fitness edge for HOLY SEAL.
Race 5: 7-3-5-1
BELLARIA is flying, drawn to get ideal run at the 1400m here and a claim helps. Good value here. EPIC MOMENT is out to the 1400m for the first time and should press forward. Was exposed in front in the one corner 1200m last time, shouldn’t be as much pressure here (maybe only EXCITEMENT). NOTIO only has to improve slightly off its return run to be competitive and RUNSON for fourth.
SUGGESTED: BELLARIA to keep a good campaign going. Having something small on NO COMMITMENT at the $13.
Race 6: 4-5-1-7
Not much between SHARING and JESTER HALO as top pick, leaning the former despite the 2kg turnaround for the 2 len margin at Flemington. MAMZELLE TESS is just reliable and again looks to get good run. DIAPASON may be looking for 1600m but will be strong late.
SUGGESTED: All four in the quaddie, leaning SHARING on top. Stable is flying.
Race 7: 3-1-2-4
Well it is Australia Day weekend racing – why wouldn’t you like BARBEQUE – form and this isn’t tough race to win. ONEHUNDRED PERCENT had no luck really at Flemington, now quickly out to 1400m which should suit. INDIAN THUNDER will be strong late, the tempo didn’t help at Flemington.
SUGGESTED: Have a BARBEQUE.
Race 8: 2-3-5-9
TSHAHITSI was never going to be suited at 1200m at Flemington but ran very well nonetheless. Has won 3/6 2nd-up and 7 of 11 wins at 1400m. Have to like. DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR ran out of gas chasing Burning Front at Flemington and can only be better placed here. Either one of these should win. WYNDSPELLE will close well late and not dropping off PURE PRIDE, whose win profile is poor (2-20) – mainly due to its own racing pattern and tempo issues. If things align, has the ability to win.
SUGGESTED: TSHAHITZI to get back to the winner’s list.
Race 9: 4-2-10-8
MORTON’S FORK had to chase the flying Dreamscape at Randwick but didn’t shirk task. Looks like the 1700m will suit. Hard to ignore the consistency and advantageous racing pattern of JAQUINOT BAY. SOHOOL comes off a couple of BM70’s for this open grade contest but happy to respect. PLOT THE COURSE should be ready after 2 runs in and was a 3rd up winner last campaign.
SUGGESTED: MORTON’S FORK to get back to the winner’s stall.
QUADDIE:
1-4-5-7
1-2-3-4
2-3
2-4
$32 for 50%