Brisbane Racing Club @ Doomben Saturday, 17 February 2018
Rail Position: +5m Entire Course
Track Condition: Soft 5
Weather: Fine
Penetrometer: 5.81
Stormy weather around SE QLD will be a factor come Saturday, with the track conditions subject to change. I’m doing my form on a SOFT 5 rating early, firming to a GOOD 4 by race time.
Best Bets:
WIN R8 N1 SUPREME EFFORT
EACH WAY R3 N4 SKATE TO PARIS
Race 1
*Disclaimer here with 7 ONWARD TO VICTORY a horse I have a small share in. A very strong February 2YO event in Brisbane, with a number of runners with good exposed form, along with decent trial form and an unseen runner that’s been well backed! It’s a difficult puzzle to piece together, but I’m happy to play 3 ONLY WANA SING at the EW price. His first up ran last prep saw him get within 0.3L of EF TROOP and I think he gets a nice run just off a strong tempo and can get over the top of them late. 7 ONWARD TO VICTORY is a horse I have a share in with AQUIS, she’s a nice strong filly, she’s found a hot race first up but is a top 4 chance.
Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 7
Bet: Each Way 3 ONLY WANNA SING
Race 2
*Disclaimer here with 12 NOW YOU SEE a horse I have a share in. She is fit and well, with the benefit of 3 jump outs leading into this. Gate 1 is an advantage around Doomben from the 1050m, and we anticipate she will either lead or be behind the leader. She will race well and is a definite EW hope. Hardest to beat is 6 YARRAPOWER who can either lead or box seat from gate 2. He was only 2.75L from the smart MALVERN ESTATE in a Class 6 Saturday race last start and looks well placed here. If the sped is hot and swoopers can close late, 2 SILIQUA could be the one at odds, with 13 NOOR DROPPER
Numbers: 6 – 12 – 2 – 13
Bet: EACH WAY 6 YARRAPOWER
Race 3
Looks a good deal of speed here, with numbers 3,5,10 all look capable of leading. I like the way the race looks to map for 4 SKATE TO PARIS. Her 2 runs at listed level last preparation where excellent, and she has trialed well enough to suggest she can resume a winner here. She gets a great run sitting 4th/5th behind a good speed, and I can see her getting over the top of her rivals late. 2 SHE’S OUR STAR will look to either lead or sit Outside the leader, she has trialed ok, and is a leading hope.
Numbers: 4 – 3 – 5 – 2
Bet: Each Way 4 SKATE TO PARIS
Race 4
1 TORGENSON sat back and really motored when winning at Ipswich last start. He looks the hardest to beat but can’t recommend a play at the odds on quote. I thought 2 COLOUR CHARGE could roll to the front here and be the horse to run the quinella with the favorite.
Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 4
Bet: BOX EXACTA 1 & 2
Race 5
* Disclaimer here, I have a small share in 3 MUSTARRID. He was an excellent run last start, when snagging back from the gate before making good ground later at an unsuitable trip. The horse has pulled up super hence the 7 day back up. He is defiantly looking for 2000m, but from the good gate can race on speed and is a good EW chance. A couple at odds that are a hope, particularly 4 PLEASED who looks suited to 1600m third up. Last prep he chased home some nice 3YO and can run a race here at odds. 1 DIAMNONDS ARE steps up to the mile for the first time, and is a chance.
Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 12
Bet: Happy to be on 1 MUSTARRID EW
Race 6
6 PUBLISHING POWER went back to Toowoomba last start and bolted in winning in good style. He comes back to Doomben, where he was a beaten favorite 2 starts back, behind OINK. This race looks a touch easier than that assignment, and he maps to get the perfect run. This looks a suitable race for him to win again at Metro level. 14 CRIQUETTE & 17 IVE GOTTA NEL will race on sped and can figure in the minor money.
Numbers: 6 – 14 – 17 – 5
Bet: WIN 6 PUBLISHING POWER
Race 7
The Chris Waller stable has a very strong hand here with 5 KIRINI 6 HOUDINI THE GREAT & 7 SHIELD WALL representing the camp. I’m leaning to 5 KIRINI to be the best chance of those mentioned. She basically given no hope in the run last start, and with the good gate here she can settle handier to the speed and looks the horse to beat. There is good speed in the race, and of the run on horses, I give 11 MAYBE EVEN a good hope, along with the lightly weighted 15 RUBY GURU, who I can see settling in the 6.
Numbers: 5 – 11 – 15 – 7
Bet: WIN 5 KIRINI & BOX EXACTA 5, 11, 14
Race 8
Now, “Bully the Donkey” is well known in social media circles, as star of the Kim Waugh stable. But he will have to take a back seat to 1 SUPREME EFFORT today. This horse looks well placed here, coming off 3 listed runs in Sydney. He has chased home MUSIC MAGNATE, CALANDA & LANCIATO and looks the clear horse to beat here. 14 MALVERN ESTAE is a nice type coming through the grades. He will need a touch of luck from the inside gate, but can certainly sprint well here and place. 8 BOOMWAA will make his own luck on speed and can figure in the minor money.
Numbers: 1 – 14 – 8 – 7
Bet: WIN 1 SUPREME EFFORT
Race 9
A tough class 6 plate to finish off the day, with a number of hopes. 11 OINK has a bit of sticky gate, but with even luck can slot in the running line and be very hard to hold out late. 3 FORTINSKY will likely push forward from the gate and will figure also. 15 LETS PARTY MARTY is also a chance. 14 JADENTOM a chance if it runs the 1350.
Numbers: 11 – 15 – 3 – 14
Bet: EACH WAY 11 OINK