WARWICK FARM
WEDNESDAY 28 MARCH
TRACK: GOOD 4 RAIL: +3m
BEST BETS:
Race 1 No.1 ADANA
Race 6 No.7 TREKKING
Race 1
1 – 3 – 6 – 7
Adana is a nice colt and I think is destined for some better races whether it’s in a week or so or perhaps Brisbane and I think he can start that progression today but winning the first race. His debut was very good when second here and from a good gate he will be handy and I am banking on his class to prove the big difference. Altair the stabelmate has trialled well and is by boom young sire Zoustar. Bowman rides this colt for Waller if you want to read into that.
Race 2
2 – 7 – 6 – 5
The favourite Pure Elation will surely take beating judging by her latest effort when beaten less than a half length by subsequent Golden Slipper winner Estijaab. She is a promising filly and must be respected but it’s not as easy as running second to a good horses. She got all the favours that day and was in the fright part of the track and at $2.4 is short enough. I am going to stick with BOLD ARIAL who I admit I have always liked as a horse and I am confident he can play a major role here. His two runs this time in have both been super and his trial was spot on and from a perfect gate I am hoping Blake Shinn grabs the race by the scruff of the neck and goes bang. I’d be surprised if one of these two doesn’t win. Invictus Salute has trialled well and looks a clear third pick.
Race 3
2 – 1 – 8 – 9
Tricky but I am siding with SPARKY LAD who I have always liked and especially as he returns here at the 1400m which I think he appreciates. His two trials should have him ready to fire. Sambro resumes as a gelding and although his trials haven’t set the world alight don’t underestimate a horse that ran second in a Carbine Club stakes at Flemington over the carnival. Icon Of Dubai was impressive winning at Goulburn and is ready for this step while Discussions was smashed in the betting and won here two weeks ago. Plus there is Thy Kingdom Come who I have a huge respect for.
Race 4
4 – 2 – 3 – 6
There look three winning chances but I have settled on LETTER TO JULIETTE who looked disappointing last start but I am being a little forgiving as it was her first crack at the 2400m when stepping up from 1900m. That run will help her enormously and toughen her up and of the three chances she is the better value. Mazaz will appreciate the step back up in trip after disappointing at Gosford last start over 2100m and a three week break. He could easily bounce back here. Tamarack who I have been tipping of late and he is a major player here but he jumps in weight and distance and at $2.3 gee I think that is short. Still he is flying and looks well placed.
Race 5
3 – 4 – 2 – 8
Tricky little race but I have settled on SWEET DEAL who did a good job first up when second at Newcastle behind Tawfig Boy and should be strip fitter today. Vellor is an honest filly who deserved another win last start and that could easily propel her onward and upwards. Artemis Rose ran second behind Vellor last start doing a good job when held up for a few strides. She is no star but she is consistent and she won’t be far away again here.
Race 6
7 – 6 – 4 – 1
TREKKING will take some beating here today following a cracking first up run this time around as a gelding. He took a while to wind up but was beaten less than a length and from a good gate here and a solid speed expected he should be able to stalk and charge hard in the run home. In Times Of War has won two from 15 starts but run nine seconds which is a little concern as her toughness has been questioned a few times. Her recent trial was very good. The other winning chance is Spending To Win who is capable if he tries his hardest. He led and won two starts ago before having no luck at Canberra albeit he was well beaten.
Race 7
13 – 9 – 1 – 7
I have always thought IMPULSIVE will be a nice horse in time being by So You Think and although safely held first up I liked the run here two weeks back behind her stablemate Sexy Eyes and with the extra fitness and extra 200m she can run a cheeky race. Absolute is going terrific and got the job done here last start and must be considered a major player again. Tip Top did enough to beat a handy one in Star Of Monsoon last start and can easily win again but 61kg on his back and up to the mile just has me thinking at $3.5 he is under the odds. Sondelon in horse terms is ‘dumb’ but he has plenty of ability and with two from two thus far it’s hard to find a reason to knock him.
Race 8
17 – 3 – 9 – 12
ALBUMIN was outstanding first up at Caulfield in a group 3 race before disappointing at Canberra in the Guineas. I think the 1400m of last start was too far and he was ridden too close as I think he finds the line far better when ridden a little colder. There looks enough speed for him here to settle back and charge late. Dortmund gets the blinkers back on after a fair effort first up here two weeks back. From gate one he will settle handy and may lead and is sure to give a big sight. Crafty Tycoon looks the value runner coming off a good effort here behind Oriental Runner.
Quaddie:
1st leg: 2 – 3 – 4
2nd leg: 6 – 7
3rd leg: 1 – 6 – 7 – 9 – 10 – 13
4th leg: 3 – 9 – 17
Cost $54 = 50%