CAULFIELD April 14
Rail out to 9m from 6m. Been tricky week late re weather from wind and heat to squally rain but predicting track fairly firm despite cooler weekend with touch of rain forecast.
BEST BET: HANDSOME THIEF Race 8 #2
BEST VALUE: REZALIENT Race 5 #10
Race 1: 1-2-3-5
Pretty even here, not much would surprise from those raced and those who have not. Going HEART CONQUERED off a Long Leaf form debut (that’s ok) then return win resuming. VIRTUAL INSANITY took wrong option heading to Sydney after good debut but sign of stable respect. YULONG PLUTO can bounce off solid debut, liked winner there. OCEAN KNIGHT best of first starters for mine.
SUGGESTED: Wide race, but like HEART CONQUERED.
Race 2: 7-4-8-10
Been a fan of AMORTENTIA and liked adaptability Hillside BM78 to lead and control last time. Versatility a plus and top pick. MA JONES can turn things around sharply under Weir. Think it can, read steward’s reports. SIMPLY INVINCIBLE is better graded here off a failure with excuses. DINNER LAKE is progressive.
SUGGESTED: Like AMORENTIA.
Race 3: 1-2-4-11
Looks clear race between PALAZZO VECCHIO off group racing with merit and with a claim and SAVACOOL of a BM 75 Sydney and now wants 1600m. Don’t over think this race. 1 beats 2 then gap DOUBLE THE MAGIC (on the up) and SHEEZDASHING (no recent wins).
SUGGESTED: PALAZZO VECHIO beats SAVACOOL, play that how you like.
Race 4: 9-12-15-10
Very keen on Weir’s TIAMO GRACE – has come back in good form off poor spring. Sunline Stakes run good 2nd up and this is right race. TOP OF THE RANGE main danger – no luck 2 runs since win here BM78. MY PARISANN back up quickly, good sign and a fan of it. HEPTAGON racing well.
SUGGESTED: Like TIAMO GRACE.
Race 5: 10-2-1-6
2nd tier Derby types here and not much between them. Think REZEALIENT can graduate – very dour staying type, not brilliant, but leaning and can continue. HAN ZIN is pretty bomb proof, out to 2000m 1st time last start here and walked in – no knock 2400m. WOLFENDALE chance on Tassie Derby run not failure behind XAN HIN. CREEDENCE through same race was solid.
SUGGESTED: Value – RESEALIENT.
Race 6: 2-4-1-7
Average race. SPECTROSCOPE has gear changes. Looks the one. BERISHA appeals. Going well and well placed. GOLDEN MANE always a threat, VELOX has found form, hardly an enthusing raceday Easter Cup and despite 0/9 here, this is best chance.
SUGGESTED: SPECTOSCOPE to win.
Race 7: 3-6-10-7
Love this race – named after Phil Sly – Walk For Phil handicap supporting out charities Pinchapoo and Very Special Kids. And he’d love to be doing the form here.
Going with BRAVO TANGO who looks a great talent and good gamble fresh. WILLIAM THOMAS was backed to win resuming and did so impressively. ICONOCLASM has gone back to back and will continue to improve. ANDAZ dodged Wednesday for this.
SUGGESTED: Like BRAVO TANGO in deep race.
Race 8: 2-1-15-12
Stuck solid HANDSOME THIEF until a winner and will be doing same. MILWAUKEE will appreciate the 1400m to turn around 2nd up defeat (2.85lens) after comprehensive debut fresh (59.5kg) Only danger I BOOGI who won well MV 1200m fresh last campaign (2 runs) – very good fresh record. BRAHMOS gets Callow landing on speed. A positive move.
SUGGESTED: HANDSOME THIEF has turned corner.
Race 9: 15-2-3-1
Tough race but like WORKING FROM HOME, broke through 2nd up and like racing pattern eliminating risk. LADY ESPRIT better suited here after quick Sydney trip. Winner 1000m 3 runs back. QUILATE has no fresh wins but can make a play late. COOL PASSION won a G3 last prep (3rd up) but a good mare.
SUGGESTED: Value D Moor and WORKING FROM HOME.
QUADDIE:
1-2-4-7
1-2-3-5-6-7-10
1-2-15
1-2-3-15
$188 for 50%