MOONEE VALLEY June 16
Looks like being a cold and rainy race day for The Valley. An early soft 5 rating is the very best it could possibly be and I have done form looking into the top end of the slow range. Rail goes out to 4m taking the unfairer inside out from the last meeting when it was true. A mix of a few I really like and some big value to make it an interesting punting day.
BEST BETS: ANOTHER BULLSEYE R2 #2, INN KEEPER R5 #3, SIXTIE’S GROOVE R9 #12
BEST VALUE: BRYAN R4 #14, GENEVA DIVA R7 #11,
Race 1: 3-1-4-5
Ground critical (all day) but liked debut TAHITIAN DANCER (went off $15) but good behind city grade Scottish Rogue finding line on a soft 5. KINGS BROOK was well backed to break through Ballarat on soft 5, can keep coming on. AMANIKAN the only first starter here is out of an MV Oaks winner and trialled strongly late Cranbourne. Think can run better than a $26 chance in even race. BLONDE CHOICE was in betting Werribee debut – ran well enough late on soft 7 and form ties in with talented Anjana. Respecting SYMPHONETTE off pacy Adelaide debut, that was good track. DARMASUN has jumped out well for 2nd campaign here and has been $19 to $13 early.
SUGGESTED: not going overboard but TAHITIAN DANCER has the right credentials around $3.9.
Race 2: 2-5-1-8
Bad alley and junior rider replaced by good draw and D Oliver for make own luck tough mare ANOTHER BULLSEYE here and banking that can hit us the target. Looks like can control this and placed up to heavy ground at only sighting. Good bet $4.2. Clear threats LINQUIST with claim who will get good run and although Silvera beaten last week, not knocking that Cranbourne form race. HECTOPASCAL is a must, chased a potential topliner here last time. SNOGGING back from Qld is next best, query ground.
SUGGESTED: GO with ANOTHER BULLSEYE and get an Oliver special at $4.2.
Race 3: 5-11-2-1
Looks winner ARTIE DEE TWO just got to be brave to take the $2.6 (punters have) after being slow away Sandown and strong through line. Loves affected ground, drawn for run. Yes. SEVEN YEAR REWARD led in that race, had chance and will give sight again, don’t know worse than soft and no wins this campaign? MOONLOVER won well here last meeting against own sex. Not knocking effort. EUSEBIO is interesting move straight to this off Syd trials. Respect that but a query off form guide in truly wet ground. BORD DE GAIN racing well, strong win on soft 6 Adelaide, has won here but been getting back of late, will 1 alley be a help?
SUGGESTED: Be brave, Back ARTIE DEE TWO expected to keep coming down from the $2.6 originally posted.
Race 4: 14-9-5-2
Waiting to find a run for BRYAN (also in Adelaide R8). Really think BYRAN is way over odds here ($41), if PRINCETON SPIRIT is the favourite and has a better profile, on their last runs there should not be that price discrepancy and on ground, happy to gamble. You will back worse $41 chances in life, previous runs without luck etc. MOONLITES CHOICE did enough 1st up for Weir when I expected it to win and can obviously bounce off that here, unbeaten heavy so very wary at the $6. Respect favourite (Princeton Spirit) and KING RIVER has just waited for soft ground. Will get it. Beat BRAHMOS last time out.
SUGGESTED: Have a crack at odds BRYAN and can also back MOONLITE’S CHOICE again.
Race 5: 3-6-7-2
Hard to knock INN KEEPER. Love on pace racing pattern, handles ground and challengers. Hard to make case against him. He is a winner. ASHLOR is a beauty though. Gave 4.5kg to leading winner last time and a senior takes over and lands minimum. If there is an issue with favourite, Ashlor is the one. FALCOOL was strong Adelaide last time with perfect ride on good ground, better on soft. WIDGEE TURF probably wants further but best of closers for mine. CAMDUS likes track and ground and had excuses here two weeks ago. FALCOOL was strong end of 1000m Adelaide, loves wet ground but a risk for mine with a 0/6 record at 1200m. Can’t have them all.
SUGGESTED: Backing INN KEEPER and can have some saver of ASHLOR at the $6.
Race 6: 6-4-2-7
Not keen this race but nothing wrong with win BALANCING ACT here this trip BM 78 resuming when had similar run you’d expect it to get from similar draw. BELWASI was last that race but can make excuses. RILLITO has been here before for a win, don’t think out draw an issue, likes soft but it has been some time off. Be good training effort. SHOWPERO won well resuming – been kept to shorter courses and certainly a player.
SUGGESTED: Least attractive betting race, going BALANCING ACT.
Race 7: 11-2-5-14.
I tipped and backed at odds GENEVA DIVA resuming at Caulfield but she beat herself, over-racing and not competitive. At the $26 (and that would be unders on that performance) I am going to follow through again. Shows talent, J Fry knows the filly and its an even race. Trialled brilliantly at Terang before Caulfield flop and a winner on a soft 5. Like the odds. MISS LEONIDES is on the back up and suspect corner and chasing a better option than good Flemington straight race. And 1/1 on a heavy. LAYEL was strong on-pace beating GREY SHADOW Sandown, that will measure up. Other query at odds SUPER HUSSEY resuming. Small race profile built to date but like what I see. TARCOOLA SPIRIT rightly has a claim and ground no issue.
SUGGESTED: Backing judgement and thinking GENEVA DIVA is worth gamble again at these big odds.
Race 8: 6-1-8-5
Lacklustre staying contest. At this stage will put MY NORDIC HERO on top to turn table with a 1kg turn on LITE’N IN MY VEINS from their recent meeting here, accepting one is a winner and one isn’t but alley makes me think top pick gets nicer run. HAVE ANOTHER GLASS was good late chasing an in-form one in TATOOSH (runs r9) Adelaide last time. RAW IMPULSE (dual acceptor) is ready for 2000m but has a few convictions.
SUGGESTED: Mmmm – MY NORDIC HERO on top. Just.
Race 9: 12-13-10-4
I suspected SIXTIES GROOVE would run well on Oz debut and di he ever. Stays at 1600m is slight concern but not doubting the thinking of Weir. Can certainly improve off that run here. TATOOSH is a winner and showed that Adelaide last time beating Have Another Glass but it was the late manner that was impressive. MAGIC CONSUL remains the fit honest one with no bad runs. AKAVOURON gets good run from draw and now out of excuses after 3 runs back. Wary TRAP FOR FOOLS, ex WA with a 10/22 record (none under 1720m and rarely soft ground) but have to respect.
SUGGESTED: Like SIXTIES GROOVE around $6.5.
Race 10: 7-5-6-12
Give us another hard one to finish. The SPIRT OF AQUADA races looms large in form analysis – it won here, BEL SONIC (big 2nd), UNIQUE BOWLER (Sound 3rd and drawn well here), STREETS OF AVALON (ok) LAGERFELD (no luck). That said I’m going GREY SHADOW again, got it wrong having to chase LEYEL lakeside, draw kinder and can be more prominent if need be. But that means leaving out unbeaten this preparation EGYPTIAN BULLET (wins at $21 and $19 after $3.9 resuming). SAM’S IMAGE I can’t catch, not happy getting beaten when it wins at $61 and runs last at $2.15 (here). DESPATCH and SNITZPEG have chances, its that sort of race.
SUGGESTED: Staying GREY SHADOW in wide race.