FLEMINGTON June 23
Been over 33mm of rain until Friday leaving it a soft 5 but expect it to be the perfect Flemington winter form, rail goes out a further 3m from 6m to 9m, and not expecting anything of concern in terms of any pattern or bias other than tempo. Got a bit of Weiritis returning again (especially late in the day).
BEST BETS: OZI CHOICE R7 #1, SILENTZ R8 #9
BEST VALUE: MOUNT KILCOY R6 #13
Race 1: 2-1-4-6
Hard to knock any as hopes here including only 1st starter in RED TERRA (Red Cadeaux colours) who has good jumpout form that ties in with recent winner Ben Hurcules. That said, going with GOOD ‘N’ FAST off $19 debut chasing down heavily backed The August here a fortnight ago. Can only think that and 1400m is right. SCOTTISH ROGUE is getting to 1400m and as an on-pacer may get a better tempo to suit. STAR FALL got wet ground, led and walked in Ballarat, back to firm now. GOLDIFOX looks a 1400m plus horse in waiting. REAL SUCCESS is the only one here with 1400m test and on pace was good.
SUGGESTED: Even lot, GOOD ‘N’ FAST looks the likely 1400m hope.
Race 2: 1-3-4-11
Looks race for CREATIVITY – yes has the 60kg but drawn for much better run than got at Moonee Valley from inside gate on day when fence wasn’t place to be. Raced 1400m once for a win. And graded to win this off a BM81 rating. Whatever beats it wins. MILES OF KRISHNAN (BM78 rater) resumed in terrific style at this trip Flemington, may even want further but obviously has come up well, just needs to find another way to win. HUSSY’S GLOW is honest and competitive for sure. ALASKAN SUN gets in under the limit with Spain claim and good raw to give some chance. Been with EVIL LIL a lot lately but just no luck which means no wins and no money. Wouldn’t shock but…..
SUGGESTED: Good win bet CREATIVTITY ($2.6 into $2.4)
Race 3: 1-3-7-9
Banker of the day or risk? – NATURE STRIP on debut (mid-campaign) for Weir but he has to be the top pick and market not teasing either at $1.80. Have to believe Weiry has him as good as can be and if near that it will be enough against this opposition including another relatively new stablemate in DUCIMUS, who was very good just missing straight run 1000m so 1110m better where has won here as has NATURE STRIP. Anyway, that’s enough for me. ORDER OF COMMAND is progressive but will need be so here off a BM64 following maiden. EL MAGNIFICENCE is through same formline as Ducimis.
SUGGESTED: NATURE STRIP wins, bookies to take it on, better price coming (I hope).
Race 4: 2-11-18-9
Nothing wrong with BARTHELONA winning this trip after getting good run las time. Likely to do same. From that race we have PAINTE (too keen), DIVINE MR ARTIE (fair), WAYANKA (no), OVERSTEP (not one of mine and always under odds) and EMOJI (ok, but better on synthetic). KNOWABLE comes through a different 1400m lead-in and got to far back in on-pace dominated race. GOOD THERAPY had betting support The Valley, wants 1400m and bigger track. Gets it.
SUGGESTED: Luck plays role but BARTHELONA rarely runs poorly.
Race 5: 5-3-1-4
A re-run to some extent of the race Kate Walters got so right on CHOYSA here last meeting while jockeys were playing jockeys behind, LYCURGUS led home FALAGO and TWO HATS in that silly chase. Reckon OIiver back on Lycurgus – who he gave a brilliant ride to win previous start – is the key, not so much the 1.5kg weight pull but mention that for reason. HIGH CHURCH is just about ready after 3 runs back and Flemington this distance range is a plus.
SUGGESTED: Oliver to get us back with LYCURGUS.
Race 6: 13-1-5-15
GAULOIS was good to the 1600m to win 3rd run in last time and bigger track can offset the 3.5kg rise – ran well here behind Levendi in Carbine Club. There is some immeasureable improvement in some lightly raced contenders here. MOUNT KILCOY was ridden for the race at Sandown on pace, will be a much better chaser for mine and gets that opportunity I’d think. REMEMBER THE NAME got good run Flemington 1400m last time, toughed it out well and no issue to 1600m (5th in Manifold in spring) with Oliver aboard on pace. LIMEKILNS (cross over nose band) comes through GAULOIS race and was ok.
SUGGESTED: GAULOIS is favourite and hard to beat, but having something on MOUNT KILCOY at the value.
Race 7: 1-8-13-3
You have to think OZI CHOICE can replicate its on-pace domination with 1.5kg less here last time. Ran time front end and back end. Going to take a tough one to beat it here. Start there and worry later. MISS GUNPOWDER was given perfect ride to get close 3rd as my value pick in same race last time. Doubt the 2kg makes much difference. GALAXY RAIDER is forever chasing and doubt alley any bonus to change negative racing pattern. MORTON’S FORK is at least fitter from chasing Ozi Choice last time but will be doing same again.
SUGGESTED: Stay the obvious – OZO CHOICE.
Race 8: 9-4-6-12
SILENTZ was beaten by a Swan Hill carnival heavy track last time in the Cup. Previous 3 wins all good, back to big and firmer Flemington is ideal in this grade on the limit. Take the $2.75 now. This is skinny race. PENSKE is off a BM75 Sydney but impresses with its pattern and will give SILENTZ something to chase. GUIZOT comes through beating home Silentz Swan Hill but it does want softer ground. PENTHOUSE POET has place chance.
SUGGESTED: Big win bet SILENTZ. Only danger for quinella saver PENSKE.
Race 9: 15-5-7-1.
Very wary MAN FROM UNCLE on debut for Weir with blinkers and other gear removed. (4 lens off Rich Charm fresh last spring is good for here). But staying with YOU’VE BEEN HAD who just had too much to do at Moonee Valley wide and chasing. Think Oliver can stalk wherever they go here and happy to be with it again. ROCKET TOMMY is obviously back off what we saw a fortnight ago 1000m further enhancing its straight record. The market told everyone sadly that ABILITY wouldn’t win first run for new stable. Ok found to have mucous in scope but that was well below best. Putting LABUAN STAR and HUSSON EAGLE into wider quaddie.
SUGGESTED: Staying with YOU’VE BEEN HAD but wary of others (see quaddie).
QUADDIE:
1-5-13-15
1
4-9
1-3-5-7-12-15
$48 for $100%