CAULFIELD June 30.
Word of slight caution re the track and weather. Comes up a good 4 on a cold morning but there are showers forecast for much of the morning though it says only a few mm. So not overly playing any possible downgrade. Rail out 7m – an odd distance for this track, was 12m at the last meeting.
BEST BET: SUMMER SHAM R4#1
BEST VALUE: ELITE DRAKE R7 #8
Race 1: 8-6-7-1
TRILLI ran right up to excellent (and strong form race) debut at Sale with determined Hillside win and looked as though further education would help. RUBAN BLEU ran $41 on Flemington debut and was unlucky with runner-up there coming out and winning last week. Have to like form lines. TONY NICCONI might be best of the first starters who has jumped out well. BEERZ WITH CLINT was well tried at Mornington debut and winner there (Cavalini) brings form that ties with the best chances here.
SUGGESTED: Staying with TRILLI but getting short now ($3.1 into $2.6 after backing it at $7.5 last time).
RACE 2: 8-3-5-6
Reckon this looks simple two horse contest – MANNTASTIC and AL GALAYEL – both imports – the former who was excellent chasing subsequent winner Barthelona at 1400m and was looking for the 1600m while the latter got that trip for sound hit the line win at Hillside. Leaning Manntastic. Big gap to ANOTHER BULLSEYE (back in grade and rolling forward) and SPANNER HEAD (also back in grade and raced closer Flemington last time).
SUGGESTED: Back MANNTASTIC, sound quinella with AL GAYEL.
Race 3: 1-6-11-10
MASCULINO handled NOTHING LEICA HIGH, BIG BAD BAZ and REBEL ROSE last time and that race has to be best form line especially now BEA TEMPTED not running. The unlucky runner there was NOTHIN’ LEICA HIGH but get back pattern is against it. At odds, can have something on though. FLOGGA is the other to include while BERKSHIRE LADY will run much better than the $41 quoted now.
SUGGESTED: Having bets on NOTHIN’ LEIC HIGH and BERSHIRE LADY at odds.
Race 4: 1-14-5-7
SUMMER SHAM is a G2 winner here (1400m) and not badly placed after claim. Strong on debut at 1100m and resumes in very winnable race with its class. SOUL STAR also resumes here and is over the odds given a 1.25 len 2nd to Summer Sham at The Valley last campaign. JOSEPHINE SEA has fitness edge off good Mornington win beating TYPHOON RUBI and MISS TOORAK FLYER. MISS NORWAY continues to run above market expectations.
SUGGESTED: Class with SUMMER SHAM.
Race 5: 7-6-12-15
RILLITO looks the obvious off flashing light return from long break at The Valley. Suited 1200m now and hard to make a compelling case against it for a rival. Think the $3.2 was ok (gone now, as low as $2.6). MAMZELLE TESS continues to run well in these races just has no recent wins. Sure to be competitive though. BELLARIA toughed it out in the RUN GYPSY RUN race resuming at Echuca and can be fitter here. QUEEN ANNABEL is silly odds ($26) for a mare in good form now that is has put tardy getaways behind it.
SUGGESTED: RILLITO to be clear horse to beat.
Race 6: 11-4-6-1
15 runners and 10 of them split between Waller and Weir. Very competitive race, but I’ve been following SIXTIES GROOVE and the step at 1800m is a major plus as is getting away from The Valley. Happy to stick again but can make cases around others including TRAP FOR FOOLS was good (same race at The Valley at Sixties Groove) at first run since coming over from Perth Cup campaign. Can only bounce off that well. MY NORDIC HERO found the right race to find an overdue win at 2040m at The Valley. PACODALI gets a tick off Swan Hill Cup run and better suited here. JAMINZAH has been good at Flemington in races this trip. Gets a tougher draw here but probably goes around silly odds again for horse in form.
SUGGESTED: Staying with SIXTIES GROOVE – $6 is good bet.
Race 7: 8-3-11-12
Been liking the work of ELITE DRAKE from strong on-pace maiden Wangaratta to similar tough effort at Echuca. Perfect draw for it, Meech takes over, is going to give you huge sight at the odds, in higher profile stable would be half the $12 going around now. Gets firmer ground than last two wins but was on a good 3 when led up in 1600m VOBIS Sires 4 runs back. No issue. USAIN BOWLER has one blemish on the synthetic at Pakenham, otherwise all runs good. CAPTAIN HARRY chased Elite Drake last time, continues to run well and GREYWORM was backed to wins its Mornington maiden and did so with some authority. SNITZEPEG in the quaddie and thoughts now out to 1400m where a Listed winner over LORD SUNDOWNER here. SMOOTH LANDING is holding consistent form and down in the weights here with claim.
SUGGESTED: Good value bet – ELITE DRAKE $12.
Race 8: 3-10-8-9
Reckon MALAISE should have won fresh 1200m at The Valley, one of those hard watches for Williams and surely from similar good draw here at 1400m is not going to find same issues. SO POYSED went up big odds here early and they have naturally gone because his return run The Valley 1200m was excellent and was 2nd-up 1500m winner last campaign off a much flatter 1st-up run. MR INDIVIDUAL had no luck Swan Hill on a bad track, RIB EYE been competitive in everything this time in. Been a MY PAISANN fan, like to see it ridden quieter and back to 1400m is a yes.
SUGGESTED: MALAISE to win.
Race 9: 1-5-14-2
Numerous winning hopes here, early betting lead ($6 into $3.9) is for KENNEDY resuming in Melbourne off typical Godolphin trials in Sydney. Yes but no snap here. ASHLOR is tough and honest and will need that without claim (63kg) dropping back to a BM84. Beat WISE HERO home two runs back then honest on pace as usual last time. Under a length from Rich Charm here (59kg this time in). GOT THE GOSS gets away from wet tracks which have fittened him up in two runs this time in, but have to think MURT THE FLIRT, PRINCETON SPIRIT and CHATUCHAK can figure with no surprise.
SUGGESTED: Very tough, like top pick ASHLOR.
QUADDIE:
1-4-6-11-12
1-3-8-11-12
3-10
1-2-4-5-14
$125 for 50%